IsentropicLift Posted January 31, 2015 Share Posted January 31, 2015 Weaker and warmer, and NYC taints before the heavy stuff gets here or just as it arrives. It would be a very meager front end dump Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted January 31, 2015 Share Posted January 31, 2015 North of 80 you're fine. Maybe a brief mix around MMU but anyone North of the GWB is in great shape. All snow for LHV. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
stlirish Posted January 31, 2015 Share Posted January 31, 2015 Weaker and warmer, and NYC taints before the heavy stuff gets here or just as it arrives. It would be a very meager front end dump Weaker and warmer? That doesn't add up in my mind Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Zelocita Weather Posted January 31, 2015 Share Posted January 31, 2015 Gem looks good for all rt.78 north.... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted January 31, 2015 Share Posted January 31, 2015 987mb over Cape May. CCB snows for the NW burbs. Freezing lines hang around the GSP. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SleetStormNJ Posted January 31, 2015 Share Posted January 31, 2015 987mb over Cape May. CCB snows for the NW burbs. Freezing lines hang around the GSP. Some spots in NJ are in for a heck of an ice storm it looks like. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Nygmen Posted January 31, 2015 Share Posted January 31, 2015 if this trends a little further north or warmer the media and NWS are going to embarass themselves again LOL Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
stlirish Posted January 31, 2015 Share Posted January 31, 2015 I jus don't see how this is going to cut this far north. CAD & 50/50 are not being picked up well enough on the models. They are struggling. Time will tell Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted January 31, 2015 Share Posted January 31, 2015 The CCB nails everyone except LI which stays mostly rain Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Zelocita Weather Posted January 31, 2015 Share Posted January 31, 2015 Ggem is awesome with front and backend!!! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Joe4alb Posted January 31, 2015 Share Posted January 31, 2015 If this does go over to plain rain or even sleet, there is going to be one hell of a freeze afterwards. Many areas on the east end still have over 2' of snow, now add rain to that then freeze... Not good. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Nygmen Posted January 31, 2015 Share Posted January 31, 2015 The CCB nails everyone except LI which stays mostly rain lol no chance nyc gets nailed but not the north shore of LI...never happened before never will Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnoSki14 Posted January 31, 2015 Share Posted January 31, 2015 Some spots in NJ are in for a heck of an ice storm it looks like. I'd rather it be plain rain then. I don't think ice will be a concern tomorrow things warm above freezing and it's around 30 when the precipitation moves in so the antecedent airmass won't be that cold. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
UlsterCountySnowZ Posted January 31, 2015 Author Share Posted January 31, 2015 GGEM is a Major hit for NNJ, LHV, NEPA, MHV, NYC still sees 8-12", less to the south Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
USCG RS Posted January 31, 2015 Share Posted January 31, 2015 I jus don't see how this is going to cut this far north. CAD & 50/50 are not being picked up well enough on the models. They are struggling. Time will tell Sent from my iPhone It doesn't make sense. The confluence should theoretically force the low to redevelop East, further South. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted January 31, 2015 Share Posted January 31, 2015 Backend snows on the GGEM would last well into Monday night Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bluewave Posted January 31, 2015 Share Posted January 31, 2015 If this does go over to plain rain or even sleet, there is going to be one hell of a freeze afterwards. Many areas on the east end still have over 2' of snow, now add rain to that then freeze... Not good. Won't be good for flat top commercial roofs especially in Suffolk which got over 20" the other day if the current snowpack soaks up any rain. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Nygmen Posted January 31, 2015 Share Posted January 31, 2015 It doesn't make sense. The confluence should theoretically force the low to redevelop East, further South. to be fair most of us thought there was convective feedback when the models pulled the last storm east except for the euro...it is what it is i doubt all the models are underestamating Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Superstorm93 Posted January 31, 2015 Share Posted January 31, 2015 A little too much mixing for my taste during the first half of the storm http://collaboration.cmc.ec.gc.ca/cmc/cmdn/pcpn_type/pcpn_type_gem_reg.html Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnoSki14 Posted January 31, 2015 Share Posted January 31, 2015 Backend snows on the GGEM would last well into Monday night So it's more of a Miller B versus SWFE. Will have to keep an eye on a potential CCB if that's the case. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnowGoose69 Posted January 31, 2015 Share Posted January 31, 2015 Backend snows on the GGEM would last well into Monday night Its likely overdone, the UKMET agrees with the GFS and moves the low out quicker, the GEM keeps it much further south off the coast longer Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Nygmen Posted January 31, 2015 Share Posted January 31, 2015 Its likely overdone, the UKMET agrees with the GFS and moves the low out quicker, the GEM keeps it much further south off the coast longer just a question is this going to be a coup for the ukmet or did it have the low even further north than this? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
UlsterCountySnowZ Posted January 31, 2015 Author Share Posted January 31, 2015 Weenie map for entertainment purposes (keep in mind 10:1 ratios) Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Superstorm93 Posted January 31, 2015 Share Posted January 31, 2015 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bluewave Posted January 31, 2015 Share Posted January 31, 2015 Its likely overdone, the UKMET agrees with the GFS and moves the low out quicker, the GEM keeps it much further south off the coast longer The UKMET is even more amplified and takes the trough neg tilt a few hours faster than the GFS. That scenario would be a problem for commercial roofs out in Suffolk which picked up over 20" the other day. The east based block only works for less amplified systems like the models showed yesterday. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
stlirish Posted January 31, 2015 Share Posted January 31, 2015 Basically we don't need this to go negative tilt so early. It's causing a big rise in heights in the east too soon. We need that rise to be further east... Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Neblizzard Posted January 31, 2015 Share Posted January 31, 2015 The UKMET is even more amplified and takes the trough neg tilt a few hours faster than the GFS. That scenario would be a problem for commercial roofs out in Suffolk which picked up over 20" the other day. The east based block only works for less amplified systems like the models showed yesterday.[/quote Big change of tune from yesterday. The negative tilt earlier on the models can't be ignored. I still don't think we rain in the city as that cold air will be extremely hard to scour out. This could be a serious ice issue for many. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ILoveWinter Posted January 31, 2015 Share Posted January 31, 2015 Trends are somewhat worrying for NYC S + E for sure and I would expect the euro to move a bit north but honestly even slightly more than 24 hours before the storm is enough time for further adjustments, models seem to be jumpier this winter. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RU848789 Posted January 31, 2015 Share Posted January 31, 2015 The old GFS was usually too warm in strong CAD set ups like this one and ran the lows too far into the cold air. This will be a big test for the new model since we don't have any experience yet with the upgrade. It will be interesting to see what the 12z Euro has. I only really follow model output, as I have never learned true meteorology; however, I've done some work with computational fluid dynamics models for small chemical reaction systems that utilize very similar models as in meteorology - and one thing we'd always do any time we updated a model was to do a reality check and run old data sets with the updated models to see how it behaved, including whether any known biases continued or were improved or if new biases had crept in. Obviously, with any upgraded model one would want to see it score better than the previous model vs. existing data sets with past inputs - otherwise there would be no point in upgrading. So, my question is whether the NCEP knows, at least based on the new GFS's performance with previous storm situations, whether the GFS still has reduced/eliminated the WAA bias you mentioned. Also, just curious if they still run the old GFS in parallel with the new one to see how they compare when the outcomes aren't actually known. Thanks for any insight anyone can provide. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bluewave Posted January 31, 2015 Share Posted January 31, 2015 The UKMET is even more amplified and takes the trough neg tilt a few hours faster than the GFS. That scenario would be a problem for commercial roofs out in Suffolk which picked up over 20" the other day. The east based block only works for less amplified systems like the models showed yesterday.[/quote Big change of tune from yesterday. The negative tilt earlier on the models can't be ignored. I still don't think we rain in the city as that cold air will be extremely hard to scour out. This could be a serious ice issue for many. That east based block just can't handle a faster negative tilt like the 12z GFS and UKMET are showing. We need a weaker and less amplified system to make this work without a solid west based block. Yesterday Today Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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