bluewave Posted January 31, 2015 Share Posted January 31, 2015 Have to see if the GGEM and Euro follow the GFS footsteps. Key will be watching what the GFS depicts and whether it follows true to form out in the Ohio Valley. The old GFS was usually too warm in strong CAD set ups like this one and ran the lows too far into the cold air. This will be a big test for the new model since we don't have any experience yet with the upgrade. It will be interesting to see what the 12z Euro has. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BoulderWX Posted January 31, 2015 Share Posted January 31, 2015 Because the NAM belongs in the trash. You study every single model run, how do you not recognize that? you're right, Euro has done MUCH better this week... about to go for 0 for 2 for the area and we're not talking about small busts, we're talking about major busts.. the NAM had two crazy runs with the blizzard on Monday but aside from that, was much better than the Euro.. and with tomorrows storm there is no comparison who sniffed out the north trend first.. euro been paying catch up do i think its a great model - of course not. worthless - not quite... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Zelocita Weather Posted January 31, 2015 Share Posted January 31, 2015 Gfs = 6" on the front and 1-3" on the backend.....not too shabby Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PB GFI Posted January 31, 2015 Share Posted January 31, 2015 The old GFS was usually too warm in strong CAD set ups like this one and ran the lows too far into the cold air. This will be a big test for the new model since we don't have any experience yet with this new model. It will be interesting to see what the 12z Euro has. I will not throw it out because it throws up all over me. I just want to see the rest of the guidance and see the handling of the CAD . This is a frigid air mass. There is a good front end. Dan makes a good point. Many times the front end could stoke you and by the time you torch there is not a lot left. There is colder guidance but the GFS is plausible Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
allgame830 Posted January 31, 2015 Share Posted January 31, 2015 Gfs = 6" on the front and 1-3" on the backend.....not too shabby What about HPN? I live 5-10 north of there. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SleetStormNJ Posted January 31, 2015 Share Posted January 31, 2015 The old GFS was usually too warm in strong CAD set ups like this one and ran the lows too far into the cold air. This will be a big test for the new model since we don't have any experience yet with this new model. It will be interesting to see what the 12z Euro has. The NAM was actually trying to run the low too far north the last day or two and has now dropped off a bit from doing that (hence the 850s have been running colder and dropping a bit further south. This could be a really good test for the GFS to see how far improved it may be. It's suggesting on the 12z not so much a farther north track, but a really strong moisture feed ahead of it. Phil(?) I think had a good discussion yesterday on something to watch for in regards to this yesterday and heat release, etc. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SleetStormNJ Posted January 31, 2015 Share Posted January 31, 2015 you're right, Euro has done MUCH better this week... about to go for 0 for 2 for the area and we're not talking about small busts, we're talking about major busts.. the NAM had two crazy runs with the blizzard on Monday but aside from that, was much better than the Euro.. and with tomorrows storm there is no comparison who sniffed out the north trend first.. euro been paying catch up do i think its a great model - of course not. worthless - not quite... Huh? NAM was horrifically bad with the blizzard. It was in lockstep with the Euro on incredible snowfall and western extent of the precip shield and then waffled back and forth a few times to the point where you couldn't trust it anymore it was so ridiculous. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WintersGrasp Posted January 31, 2015 Share Posted January 31, 2015 Important to keep in mind, even in a mix OR rain scenario, there will most likely be several inches of snow up front. If this was the weaker, further south solution from earlier in the week, it would be maybe 4-6" of all snow. Now it may be 4-6"+ of snow followed by a lot of sleet, some areas rain. Monday night will be frigid, so everything should freeze quite rapidly and lead to dangerous driving conditions Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
UlsterCountySnowZ Posted January 31, 2015 Author Share Posted January 31, 2015 Thru hr 60 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnoSki14 Posted January 31, 2015 Share Posted January 31, 2015 Gfs would be mostly rain here so the north trend continues. It's been doing well so far. There could even be some flooding issues with snow especially further east. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
stlirish Posted January 31, 2015 Share Posted January 31, 2015 Staying the course of at least 4" on front end dump. Then taint then 1-3" of snow. Significant storm. I wouldn't get too caught up in the brief warm up. Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Zelocita Weather Posted January 31, 2015 Share Posted January 31, 2015 If this is all/mostly frozen (snow,sleet,ice) it's going to be one heck of a distributive storm with 1.2-1.5" LE....much wore distributive than a foot of powder from .75 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Zelocita Weather Posted January 31, 2015 Share Posted January 31, 2015 Gfs would be mostly rain here so the north trend continues. It's been doing well so far. No... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnowGoose69 Posted January 31, 2015 Share Posted January 31, 2015 Gfs would be mostly rain here so the north trend continues. It's been doing well so far. It did not really trend north, it just explodes the low now so you end up warming a lot more, at the same time there may be backend snows because the low gets so deep as it passes off to the NE Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
phil882 Posted January 31, 2015 Share Posted January 31, 2015 The biggest difference between the GFS and the ECMWF is at the surface. The 12z GFS is a good 15-20F warmer across most of PA/NY. I'm not sure I believe surface temperatures will be that much warmer given the orientation of the ridging to the north. The GFS does have a weaker ridge and broader surface low, but I'm unsure how well the surface inversion will be resolved at this point. SFC temps are almost always underestimated in this type of regime. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnoSki14 Posted January 31, 2015 Share Posted January 31, 2015 It did not really trend north, it just explodes the low now so you end up warming a lot more, at the same time there may be backend snows because the low gets so deep as it passes off to the NE Backends almost never work out and surface on the gfs looks warm even after low passes. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
danstorm Posted January 31, 2015 Share Posted January 31, 2015 It did not really trend north, it just explodes the low now so you end up warming a lot more, at the same time there may be backend snows because the low gets so deep as it passes off to the NE You rarely see backside snows with a low to the NE. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bluewave Posted January 31, 2015 Share Posted January 31, 2015 The GFS is taking the storm negative tilt faster than it did yesterday. That's why the low cuts further to the north and is deeper. East based blocks can't handle as much amplitude as west based ones can since there can still be enough of a SE Ridge to spoil the party. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SleetStormNJ Posted January 31, 2015 Share Posted January 31, 2015 GFS 1.5" of liquid, with these temps...it doesn't matter what falls. This is going to be a mess Monday morning. Yeah, it's trended towards a bit of a worry/danger zone with regards to icy conditions in parts of NJ/metro areas. Good shot of a snow day for kids and work from home day for adults. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted January 31, 2015 Share Posted January 31, 2015 I'm inclined to believe that the surface is probably going to stay pretty cold, especially from 78 North. But if this ends up as amplified as what some of the modeling is showing, the mid-levels are going to torch. I can see heavy snow to mix to dry slot to snow for the city, but the backend stuff looks very pedestrian if at all, more for Eastern LI than most people in this forum. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnowGoose69 Posted January 31, 2015 Share Posted January 31, 2015 Stop counting on backend snows Its a legitimate threat if the UKMET and GFS are correct about the low deepening as much as it does as it passes NE of us Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
allgame830 Posted January 31, 2015 Share Posted January 31, 2015 Yeah, it's trended towards a bit of a worry/danger zone with regards to icy conditions in parts of NJ/metro areas. Good shot of a snow day for kids and work from home day for adults. Correct if this does end of verifying then it could potential cause more problems in the NYC area then a foot of snow would.. Not good. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
stlirish Posted January 31, 2015 Share Posted January 31, 2015 Models absolutely can't be trusted outside of 48 hrs this year. Simple as that. Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
UlsterCountySnowZ Posted January 31, 2015 Author Share Posted January 31, 2015 GGEM is initialising Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Mikehobbyst Posted January 31, 2015 Share Posted January 31, 2015 This is looking like a possible ice storm warning event for NYC and LI. Growing very concerned. I'd say 2-4 inches of snow with .50 inch glaze. Temps stay 29 with severe icing at surface. GFS is ice storm criteria with NE winds and T/TD around 30/30 at peak. Rather just going to sleet. Plain rain is not happening with 50/50 and confluence north of us. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted January 31, 2015 Share Posted January 31, 2015 GGEM is also way more amped up Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
easternsnowman Posted January 31, 2015 Share Posted January 31, 2015 Models absolutely can't be trusted outside of 48 hrs this year. Simple as that. Sent from my iPhone Even inside 48 hours! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
UlsterCountySnowZ Posted January 31, 2015 Author Share Posted January 31, 2015 GGEM is also way more amped up GGEM looks identical to GFS Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted January 31, 2015 Share Posted January 31, 2015 All of the thermal layers are already 20 miles North of 00z at 09z Monday. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted January 31, 2015 Share Posted January 31, 2015 SLP is 4mb weaker, I don't buy that. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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