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Post super bowl storm Model discussion


UlsterCountySnowZ

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For those that do warm up and change over to rain/freezing rain / sleet tomorrow... it looks like an inverted trough might be setting up for tomorrow afternoon. Its showing up on the 15h HRRR... could bring a few more inches on the backside of this event for those in NY.

 

http://www.atmos.albany.edu/student/ppapin/hrrr.php#diag

 

uI3MU69.png

 

711YIJn.png

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For those that do warm up and change over to rain/freezing rain / sleet tomorrow... it looks like an inverted trough might be setting up for tomorrow afternoon. Its showing up on the 15h HRRR... could bring a few more inches on the backside of this event for those in NY.

http://www.atmos.albany.edu/student/ppapin/hrrr.php#diag

uI3MU69.png

711YIJn.png

I enjoy your posts in our regional sub forum. Thank you, we need more mets in here.

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For those that do warm up and change over to rain/freezing rain / sleet tomorrow... it looks like an inverted trough might be setting up for tomorrow afternoon. Its showing up on the 15h HRRR... could bring a few more inches on the backside of this event for those in NY.

http://www.atmos.albany.edu/student/ppapin/hrrr.php#diag

uI3MU69.png

711YIJn.png

Rap does this as well, great post thank u
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So far there's been no warm push to the south of us... Interesting... Just read what Paul Kocin had to say...

Warm air and mix line have been screaming NE ward for a few hours - went from Wilmington to Trenton in under 2 hours and should be up here in Edison by 3 am.  No idea why you think there's been no warm push to the south of you.  

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KNYC LGA now down to 29. 29 to 30 across the N shore. 31 to 33 on the S shore and dropping.

Long Island could be looking at ice amounts of .25 now. Then when the 850 fly S then we flip back to snow. The BL got stuck. Once the coatal took over . There is plenty of precip off to the SW moving NE

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I ran the OZ NAM soundings for my lat/long.  Surface stays below freezing the entire time, in fact it is warmest when it is snowing and then starts to fall as the uppers warm.  Between 12z and 18z Monday is basically an icestorm on the north shore...possibly .5"+.  The depends on how much falls as sleet during the first and last parts of that period, but Monday could be pretty ugly.

 

We snow up until about 7AM at which point we go over to sleet.  Not sure how long the transition to Freezing rain will take because I get the soundings in 3 hour increments, but at 10AM it is a frozen mess (ZR).  By 1PM we are transitioning back and are either sleet or a sleet/snow mix.  We get close to .75" liquid during that period and my interpretation is that it falls mostly as freezing rain.

 

Again, this is a reading of the 0Z NAM soundings, not a forecast, although it could conceivably work out similar to that.

 

Also, looks like about 5" of snow prior to the taint.  Ends as snow, but only light amounts.

 

Not sure about other parts of the region, but the NAM actually did quite well on this one and also had good run to run consistency.  Just when you thought it was safe to ignore it.

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