danstorm Posted February 2, 2015 Share Posted February 2, 2015 Please show me how anyone above rockland qualifies as an "ice storm" on the 00z nam That was more of a dig at yanksfan Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snywx Posted February 2, 2015 Share Posted February 2, 2015 Please show me how anyone above rockland qualifies as an "ice storm" on the 00z nam And the NW burbs is anyone NW of NYC ( Bergen,Rockland,Westchester etc) Not just Orange. Just trying to help Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
UlsterCountySnowZ Posted February 2, 2015 Author Share Posted February 2, 2015 And the NW burbs is anyone NW of NYC ( Bergen,Rockland,Westchester etc) Not just Orange. Just trying to help Still no one is at .50" of ice Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
UlsterCountySnowZ Posted February 2, 2015 Author Share Posted February 2, 2015 That was more of a dig at yanksfanI know dude I was just quoting u sorry Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
UlsterCountySnowZ Posted February 2, 2015 Author Share Posted February 2, 2015 Stop reading into it dude lol... He is basically saying there is gonna be alot of ice. No I get it, but a lot of people read these posts without the ability to see the models. And if u say there's an ice storm that's a little "misleading" which was my original wording Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snywx Posted February 2, 2015 Share Posted February 2, 2015 0z NAM verbatim W Passaic, Rockland, Bergen, N Westchester look to get a good amount of ice. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wthrmn654 Posted February 2, 2015 Share Posted February 2, 2015 Another Upton update but I think only the very top was updated -- Changed Discussion -- LIGHT SNOW/FLURRIES WILL CONTINUE TO OVERSPREAD THE AREA FROM THE SW OVER THE NEXT FEW HOURS. A STEADIER SNOW WILL DEVELOP ACROSS THE AREA AFTER MIDNIGHT. ONLY MINOR ADJUSTMENTS MADE TO FORECAST TO ACCOUNT FOR ONGOING CONDITIONS. MODELS IN GOOD AGREEMENT WITH LOW PRESSURE TAKING SHAPE OVER THE MID MISSISSIPPI RIVER VALLEY THIS AFTERNOON...TRACKING THROUGH THE OHIO VALLEY TONIGHT...AND BEGINNING TO REDEVELOP JUST SOUTH OF THE TRI- STATE MONDAY MORNING. INCREASING AND LOWERING CLOUDS THIS EVENING...WITH GRADUALLY INCREASING CHANCES OF LIGHT SNOW FROM W TO E TONIGHT. TEMPS GENERALLY STEADY IN LOWER 30S-35 ALONG THE COAST FOR MOST OF THE NIGHT...THEN WETBULBING TO FREEZING WITH START OF HEAVY SNOW...THEN RISING ABOVE FREEZING LATE ACROSS IMMEDIATE SOUTH AND EASTERN COASTAL AREAS TO ABOVE FREEZING TOWARDS DAYBREAK. JUST INTERIOR OF THE IMMEDIATE COAST...ACROSS INTERIOR NE NJ...LOWER HUDSON VALLEY...AND SOUTHERN CT...TEMPS SHOULD FALL INTO THE TEENS AND 20S WITH EVAPORATIONAL COOLING ONCE SNOW STARTS AND HOLD THERE INTO DAYBREAK. BASED ON APPROACHING COUPLED JET STRUCTURE...TIGHT LOW/MID-LEVEL THERMAL STRUCTURE...AND 60-70 KT LLJ FEEDING STRONG GULF MOISTURE FEED OF 2-3 STD PWATS UP OVER THE REGION LATE TONIGHT...EXPECTING HEAVY SNOW INITIALLY TO DEVELOP ACROSS THE REGION FROM W TO E AFTER 2 TO 4 AM. SNOWFALL RATES OF 1 TO 2 INCHES PER HOUR POSSIBLE. THIS IS SUPPORTED BY HIGH PROB OF 1" PER HOUR SNOWFALL RATES IN THE SREF. A QUICK 2 TO 5 ALONG THE CITY/COAST IS THE MOST LIKELY (HIGHEST AMOUNTS ACROSS NORTHERN PERIPHERIES WITH LOCALLY 6 INCHES) BEFORE ANY CHANGEOVER TOWARDS DAYBREAK. A GENERAL 4 TO 8 INCHES OF SNOW BY DAYBREAK ACROSS INTERIOR NE NJ...LOWER HUDSON VALLEY...AND SW CT. 3 TO 5 INCHES ACROSS SE CT. THESE RANGES HAVE THE POTENTIAL TO BE SHIFTED UP OR DOWN BY 1-2 INCHES...BECAUSE A 1 HOUR DIFFERENCE IN TIMING OF CHANGEOVER WILL MEAN THE DIFFERENCE IN ALMOST 2 INCHES OF SNOW FROM THE TOTAL! THIS VARIABILITY ISSUE IS ILLUSTRATED WELL BY THE 10 AND 90 PERCENTILE SNOW TOTAL GRAPHICS ON OUR WEB PAGE. FOR THE NYC/NJ METRO AND COAST...ALMOST ALL OF THE SNOWFALL FOR THE EVENING WILL BE SEEN IN THE EARLY MORNING HOURS. THE EARLY MORNING COMMUTE WILL BE HEAVILY IMPACTED FOR THE ENTIRE AREA. THEREAFTER...THE FORECAST CHALLENGE REMAINS IN HOW QUICKLY AND FAR NORTH WARM AIR RIDES IN ALOFT AS WE APPROACH DAYBREAK MONDAY MORNING...AND WHERE A COASTAL FRONT SETS UP DEMARCATING A TIGHT GRADIENT BETWEEN SE WINDS AND 40 DEGREE TEMPS TO THE SE AND ENE/NE WINDS TO THE NORTH WITH SUB-FREEING TEMPS. -- End Changed Discussion -- Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted February 2, 2015 Share Posted February 2, 2015 0z NAM verbatim W Passaic, Rockland, Bergen, N Westchester look to get a good amount of ice.0.50" of ice is the warning criteria. The icing tomorrow will be significant, call it what you want. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnowGoose69 Posted February 2, 2015 Share Posted February 2, 2015 The RGEM is so good, the signature on radar over NYC is almost identical to what it has shown for 2 days Here was last night's 06Z run forecast at 21 hours Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snywx Posted February 2, 2015 Share Posted February 2, 2015 0.50" of ice is the warning criteria. The icing tomorrow will be significant, call it what you want. Why are you quoting my message? lol.. I wasn't the one questioning you. 0z Rgem came in snowier for NW areas.. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted February 2, 2015 Share Posted February 2, 2015 Why are you quoting my message? lol.. I wasn't the one questioning you. 0z Rgem came in snowier for NW areas.. That wasn't targeted at you Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
allgame830 Posted February 2, 2015 Share Posted February 2, 2015 Why are you quoting my message? lol.. I wasn't the one questioning you. 0z Rgem came in snowier for NW areas.. Define snowier? What is it showing for Northern Westchester? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snywx Posted February 2, 2015 Share Posted February 2, 2015 Define snowier? What is it showing for Northern Westchester? Enjoy.. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ericjcrash Posted February 2, 2015 Share Posted February 2, 2015 The RGEM is so good, the signature on radar over NYC Here was last night's 06Z run forecast at 21 hours good , yes. But SE PA has big time echos. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
allgame830 Posted February 2, 2015 Share Posted February 2, 2015 Enjoy..Ok I guess that's a good thing but maybe a.... Map?Sorry just saw.. My phone didn't load it right away. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jm1220 Posted February 2, 2015 Share Posted February 2, 2015 Enjoy.. It actually looks less snowy near the coast and for NYC. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snywx Posted February 2, 2015 Share Posted February 2, 2015 It actually looks less snowy near the coast and for NYC. Yeah it tighten the gradient.. Increased snowfall away from the coast and decreased it right along it. 2-3" verbatim in the 5 boros. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Sn0waddict Posted February 2, 2015 Share Posted February 2, 2015 Damn this is going to be an awesome radar to watch for NYC. A decent chunk of the models are literally splitting the city in half for mixing. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
nycsnow Posted February 2, 2015 Share Posted February 2, 2015 Yeah it tighten the gradient.. Increased snowfall away from the coast and decreased it right along it. 2-3" verbatim in the 5 boros. Might have that by 1am at this rate mod snow Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
USCG RS Posted February 2, 2015 Share Posted February 2, 2015 Damn this is going to be an awesome radar to watch for NYC. A decent chunk of the models are literally splitting the city in half for mixing.I'm thinking the N shore of LI gets nailed as well. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
FreeRain Posted February 2, 2015 Share Posted February 2, 2015 good , yes. But SE PA has big time echos. 36 and snowing in Baltimore at the moment. Edit: Now raining. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
UlsterCountySnowZ Posted February 2, 2015 Author Share Posted February 2, 2015 00z rgem and GFS both brought mix line south of orange county into rockland and westchester Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RUMG11 Posted February 2, 2015 Share Posted February 2, 2015 I know this is OT but... Best Super Bowl of all time? Enjoy the storm fellas. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wthrmn654 Posted February 2, 2015 Share Posted February 2, 2015 Snowing here eastern long island Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted February 2, 2015 Share Posted February 2, 2015 HRRR still showing 6 inches of snow before the changeover for NYC Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weatherdude888 Posted February 2, 2015 Share Posted February 2, 2015 HRRR still showing 6 inches of snow before the changeover for NYC Light snow in Staten Island, has since stopped.....barely and precip falling if any....... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TwcMan Posted February 2, 2015 Share Posted February 2, 2015 Snow is about to move back into the area over the next hour Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
rygar Posted February 2, 2015 Share Posted February 2, 2015 HRRR still showing 6 inches of snow before the changeover for NYC Hang on to whatever you need to. I like the HRRR for my fantasies too. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WintersGrasp Posted February 2, 2015 Share Posted February 2, 2015 Hang on to whatever you need to. I like the HRRR for my fantasies too. In this case, I don't think 4-6" of snow is out of the question. There is a heavy snow band working its way into the area now which is expanding. This could drop an inch or two, and behind it before the mix and changeover, snow should be heavy throughout the early morning hours. I do believe that much of the area (including the city and NNJ plus parts of LI) could possibly reach the 6 inches.....With immediate northern suburbs over 7" Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NEXtreme Posted February 2, 2015 Share Posted February 2, 2015 In this case, I don't think 4-6" of snow is out of the question. There is a heavy snow band working its way into the area now which is expanding. This could drop an inch or two, and behind it before the mix and changeover, snow should be heavy throughout the early morning hours. I do believe that much of the area (including the city and NNJ plus parts of LI) could possibly reach the 6 inches.....With immediate northern suburbs over 7" So far there's been no warm push to the south of us... Interesting... Just read what Paul Kocin had to say... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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