SnowGoose69 Posted February 2, 2015 Share Posted February 2, 2015 I've been on the dry slot train, as well. Its hard to be that close to the 700 low and surface low of a sub 998mb low and not dry slot. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jm1220 Posted February 2, 2015 Share Posted February 2, 2015 NAH HRRR RAP RGEM NAM are all 4 to 6 - HRRR and RAP change over at 5 am . Its Minus 8 at 850 right now . KNYC will accumulate bud before it flips Not saying it won't. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PB GFI Posted February 2, 2015 Share Posted February 2, 2015 Not saying it won't. The best case is to thump until 5 am and be done by 9 with the back edge . Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
lisnow66 Posted February 2, 2015 Share Posted February 2, 2015 the way that cold is coming south it might be better to nowcast rather then to look at models.seriously these temps might hover around freezing all day it tomm it seems,especially if you live in upper manhattan and the bronx..i expect more then 5-7 inches by my area,depending how deep and strong the colder air is coming in and how long it can erode out which i doubt will happen at all. Where is the cold coming? At 34 here in westbury Long Island. Temps are not going down here. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NEXtreme Posted February 2, 2015 Share Posted February 2, 2015 looks like the warm air has not been as strong as advertised by the guidance. The warm air is stuck in SW PA. The low is moving east... http://www.spc.noaa.gov/exper/mesoanalysis/s19/pmsl/pmsl.gif?1422839162550 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
danstorm Posted February 2, 2015 Share Posted February 2, 2015 Where is the cold coming? At 34 here in westbury Long Island. Temps are not going down here. Evaporational cooling brah. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PB GFI Posted February 2, 2015 Share Posted February 2, 2015 looks like the warm air has not been as strong as advertised by the guidance. The warm air is stuck in SW PA. The low is moving east... http://www.spc.noaa.gov/exper/mesoanalysis/s19/pmsl/pmsl.gif?1422839162550 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PB GFI Posted February 2, 2015 Share Posted February 2, 2015 Minus 8 over the top . Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LongBeachSurfFreak Posted February 2, 2015 Share Posted February 2, 2015 The best case is to thump until 5 am and be done by 9 with the back edge .That's basically a dream come true for me. Getting paid ot currently to chill. Will have to work later but would like to be able to go home around 6am.Radar looks like I will not have to get off my but till well after midnight. It seems so warm in the city right now. There was a decent amount of melting going on. I know the heavy precip will crash temps down to around 30 but I doubt to much sticks on roads here at least as there is an INSANE amount of salt on the ground Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PB GFI Posted February 2, 2015 Share Posted February 2, 2015 UPTON TEMPS GENERALLY STEADY IN LOWER 30S-35 ALONG THE COAST FOR MOST OFTHE NIGHT...THEN WETBULBING TO FREEZING WITH START OF HEAVYSNOW...THEN RISING ABOVE FREEZING LATE ACROSS IMMEDIATE SOUTH ANDEASTERN COASTAL AREAS TO ABOVE FREEZING TOWARDS DAYBREAK. JUSTINTERIOR OF THE IMMEDIATE COAST...ACROSS INTERIOR NE NJ...LOWERHUDSON VALLEY...AND SOUTHERN CT...TEMPS SHOULD FALL INTO THE TEENSAND 20S WITH EVAPORATIONAL COOLING ONCE SNOW STARTS AND HOLDTHERE INTO DAYBREAK.BASED ON APPROACHING COUPLED JET STRUCTURE...TIGHT LOW/MID-LEVELTHERMAL STRUCTURE...AND 60-70 KT LLJ FEEDING STRONG GULF MOISTUREFEED OF 2-3 STD PWATS UP OVER THE REGION LATE TONIGHT...EXPECTINGHEAVY SNOW INITIALLY TO DEVELOP ACROSS THE REGION FROM W TO E AFTER2 TO 4 AM. SNOWFALL RATES OF 1 TO 2 INCHES PER HOUR POSSIBLE.THIS IS SUPPORTED BY HIGH PROB OF 1" PER HOUR SNOWFALL RATES INTHE SREF.A QUICK 2 TO 5 ALONG THE CITY/COAST IS THE MOST LIKELY(HIGHEST AMOUNTS ACROSS NORTHERN PERIPHERIES WITH LOCALLY 6INCHES) BEFORE ANY CHANGEOVER TOWARDS DAYBREAK. A GENERAL 4 TO 8INCHES OF SNOW BY DAYBREAK ACROSS INTERIOR NE NJ...LOWER HUDSONVALLEY...AND SW CT. 3 TO 5 INCHES ACROSS SE CT. THESE RANGES HAVETHE POTENTIAL TO BE SHIFTED UP OR DOWN BY 1-2 INCHES...BECAUSE A 1HOUR DIFFERENCE IN TIMING OF CHANGEOVER WILL MEAN THE DIFFERENCEIN ALMOST 2 INCHES OF SNOW FROM THE TOTAL! THIS VARIABILITY ISSUEIS ILLUSTRATED WELL BY THE 10 AND 90 PERCENTILE SNOW TOTAL GRAPHICSON OUR WEB PAGE.FOR THE NYC/NJ METRO AND COAST...ALMOST ALL OF THE SNOWFALL FOR THEEVENING WILL BE SEEN IN THE EARLY MORNING HOURS. THE EARLYMORNING COMMUTE WILL BE HEAVILY IMPACTED FOR THE ENTIRE AREA. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
lisnow66 Posted February 2, 2015 Share Posted February 2, 2015 Evaporational cooling brah. But that's not cold comig from the north. That's temporary until warm air comes back in. Thought perhaps the cold was pushing south now by the post. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
danstorm Posted February 2, 2015 Share Posted February 2, 2015 But that's not cold comig from the north. That's temporary until warm air comes back in. Thought perhaps the cold was pushing south now by the post. I guess you missed the part about the snow being temporary, too. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted February 2, 2015 Share Posted February 2, 2015 Light snow here, guess I was wrong Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted February 2, 2015 Share Posted February 2, 2015 Light snow here Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TwcMan Posted February 2, 2015 Share Posted February 2, 2015 Light snow Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BxEngine Posted February 2, 2015 Share Posted February 2, 2015 Theres an obs thread guys Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Morris Posted February 2, 2015 Share Posted February 2, 2015 NAM time for kicks. What did SREFs show? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Snowman86 Posted February 2, 2015 Share Posted February 2, 2015 Very light snow here. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wthrmn654 Posted February 2, 2015 Share Posted February 2, 2015 Upton updated at 7 pm dunno if anyone caught it or not NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM MONDAY MORNING/... SOME VERY LIGHT SNOW ACROSS EASTERN PA WILL SPREAD ACROSS LOCATIONS NORTH AND WEST OF NYC THE NEXT COUPLE OF HOURS. A STEADIER SNOW DOES NOT DEVELOP ACROSS THE AREA UNTIL AFTER MIDNIGHT. POPS WERE ADJUSTED DOWN THIS EVE AND TEMPS WERE BUMPED UP A COUPLE OF DEGREES BASED ON LATEST OBS AND TRENDS. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Snowman86 Posted February 2, 2015 Share Posted February 2, 2015 There goes your snow amounts. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Snowman86 Posted February 2, 2015 Share Posted February 2, 2015 Honestly Im not looking forward to snow on Monday morning. Have to get up 30 mins early so I can clean the car. Wish it all started later. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted February 2, 2015 Share Posted February 2, 2015 All the mesoscale models show a few inches for nyc. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NycStormChaser Posted February 2, 2015 Share Posted February 2, 2015 Honestly Im not looking forward to snow on Monday morning. Have to get up 30 mins early so I can clean the car. Wish it all started later. Could be worse. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
stlirish Posted February 2, 2015 Share Posted February 2, 2015 There goes your snow amounts. huh? The heavy stuff wasn't supposed to come in until 2-4am and when it does its 1-2" hr stuff.Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Snowman86 Posted February 2, 2015 Share Posted February 2, 2015 huh? The heavy stuff wasn't supposed to come in until 2-4am and when it does its 1-2" hr stuff. For how many hours at that rate 2 to 3... Sent from my iPhone Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted February 2, 2015 Share Posted February 2, 2015 Ice storm for the NW burbs on the NAM Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
UlsterCountySnowZ Posted February 2, 2015 Author Share Posted February 2, 2015 Ice storm for the NW burbs on the NAM I feel like this is misleading... Define ice storm, cause from the 00z nam I saw, mixing lasted about 3 hrs tops then precip either went to snow shower or was gone Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
UlsterCountySnowZ Posted February 2, 2015 Author Share Posted February 2, 2015 Now you know how the rest of us feel! Please show me how anyone above rockland qualifies as an "ice storm" on the 00z nam Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
UlsterCountySnowZ Posted February 2, 2015 Author Share Posted February 2, 2015 NWS service defines an ice storm as .50" of ice Criteria for ice storm is 1/2 inch or more over at least 50 percent of the zone or encompassing most of the population for that area. Please show me the 00z nam where anyone is half an inch of ice Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snywx Posted February 2, 2015 Share Posted February 2, 2015 NWS service defines an ice storm as .50" of ice Criteria for ice storm is 1/2 inch or more over at least 50 percent of the zone or encompassing most of the population for that area. Please show me the 00z nam where anyone is half an inch of ice Stop reading into it dude lol... He is basically saying there is gonna be alot of ice. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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