Superstorm93 Posted February 1, 2015 Share Posted February 1, 2015 TEB flips to heavy rain on the HRRR by 7am. HPN stays all snow (heavy) through 8am Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wthrmn654 Posted February 1, 2015 Share Posted February 1, 2015 That's really a narrow window of error for nws, should that line end up forget south then expected... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted February 1, 2015 Share Posted February 1, 2015 Rgem and nam has several inches before the changeove for nyc Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bluewave Posted February 1, 2015 Share Posted February 1, 2015 It's interesting how unlucky for just plain snow Groundhog Day has been for NYC going back to the late 1800's. It has the lowest daily maximum snowfall for the first half of February. The last big event turned into a mixed mess back on 2-2-11. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PB GFI Posted February 1, 2015 Share Posted February 1, 2015 RGEM NAM HRRR RAP RPM all see 4 to 6 at KNYC now. 850s are minus 8 around the area. So once your precip falls your surface should fall into the upper 20s before climbing back above freezing by 5 am Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NEXtreme Posted February 1, 2015 Share Posted February 1, 2015 RGEM NAM HRRR RAP RPM all see 4 to 6 at KNYC now. 850s are minus 8 around the area. So once your precip falls your surface should fall into the upper 20s before climbing back above freezing by 5 am Winds are snow shifting to the North. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
donsutherland1 Posted February 1, 2015 Share Posted February 1, 2015 Latest RGEM for the NYC Metro Area (Snowfall Forecast): Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LongBeachSurfFreak Posted February 1, 2015 Share Posted February 1, 2015 TEB flips to heavy rain on the HRRR by 7am. HPN stays all snow (heavy) through 8am That looks good to me. I think there is a period were it rips snow even on the south shore . Like 2-3" an hour stuff and thats how we get to 4". Similar to last febs front end dump. Difference there will be slightly less snow on the south shore 4 instead of 7 and allot less on the north shore 5 instead of double digits. I'll be up all night doing snow removal on the upper west side so I'll give a play by play for those that sleep through it Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SleetStormNJ Posted February 1, 2015 Share Posted February 1, 2015 Latest RGEM for the NYC Metro Area (Snowfall Forecast): Wow. Congrats Boston/surrounding suburbs. Looks like another snow-day for them up there tomorrow. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BxWeatherwatcher Posted February 1, 2015 Share Posted February 1, 2015 the way that cold is coming south it might be better to nowcast rather then to look at models.seriously these temps might hover around freezing all day it tomm it seems,especially if you live in upper manhattan and the bronx..i expect more then 5-7 inches by my area,depending how deep and strong the colder air is coming in and how long it can erode out which i doubt will happen at all. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
nzucker Posted February 1, 2015 Share Posted February 1, 2015 Wow. Congrats Boston/surrounding suburbs. Looks like another snow-day for them up there tomorrow. I believe Boston Public Schools are already closed due to the impending storm. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
phil882 Posted February 1, 2015 Share Posted February 1, 2015 For those interested in the forcing behind these precip totals, I made some new frontogenesis maps based on the HRRR that should be updating hourly. Substantial forcing at 925 and 850 hPa near NYC by 12z. http://www.atmos.albany.edu/student/ppapin/hrrr.php#diag Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wthrmn654 Posted February 1, 2015 Share Posted February 1, 2015 We're in for surprises tomorrow, good/bad no doubt Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
USCG RS Posted February 1, 2015 Share Posted February 1, 2015 the way that cold is coming south it might be better to nowcast rather then to look at models.seriously these temps might hover around freezing all day it tomm it seems,especially if you live in upper manhattan and the bronx..i expect more then 5-7 inches by my area,depending how deep and strong the colder air is coming in and how long it can erode out which i doubt will happen at all.I would not be shocked if this took place. This high and PV mean business. Models always struggle with CAD situations. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
USCG RS Posted February 1, 2015 Share Posted February 1, 2015 For those interested in the forcing behind these precip totals, I made some new frontogenesis maps based on the HRRR that should be updating hourly. Substantial forcing at 925 and 850 hPa near NYC by 12z. http://www.atmos.albany.edu/student/ppapin/hrrr.php#diag The thermal gradient is going to allow for it to rip in and around the area. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Joe4alb Posted February 2, 2015 Share Posted February 2, 2015 All is quiet in here, super bowl or Radar? What are you watching? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnowGoose69 Posted February 2, 2015 Share Posted February 2, 2015 All is quiet in here, super bowl or Radar? What are you watching? This game is gonna get ugly fast if the Pats go up 14-0, the Seahawks could not score on my beer league team right now. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wthrmn654 Posted February 2, 2015 Share Posted February 2, 2015 I'm down to 27.0℉ on my yard sensor and 28.7℉ on my roof sensor..I have 2 mainly for winter time comparison, roof with fan aspirated shield..anyway temperatures continued to drop,Will be interesting to see how low they go tonight Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bobby Posted February 2, 2015 Share Posted February 2, 2015 This game is gonna get ugly fast if the Pats go up 14-0, the Seahawks could not score on my beer league team right now. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RU848789 Posted February 2, 2015 Share Posted February 2, 2015 This game is gonna get ugly fast if the Pats go up 14-0, the Seahawks could not score on my beer league team right now. what was that? Lol lol, good game so far - love seeing hard-hitting defense, although the Pat may really regret that INT near the goal line. Go Rutgers-North! (Pats have 4 guys from RU on the team) Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnowGoose69 Posted February 2, 2015 Share Posted February 2, 2015 lol, good game so far - love seeing hard-hitting defense, although the Pat may really regret that INT near the goal line. Go Rutgers-North! (Pats have 4 guys from RU on the team) Assuming this one stays this close the Pats would be 6 for 6 as far as playing entertaining superbowls, it would be remarkable that if they end up 4-2 after this game and its close that they never once blew an opponent out. And they played 3 teams they probably should have blown out too in the Giants twice and Carolina. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
UlsterCountySnowZ Posted February 2, 2015 Author Share Posted February 2, 2015 Rap is awful, barely gets even the far North and West burbs out of 4-6" lol... 2015 and these weather models are no better than they were 10 years ago Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnowGoose69 Posted February 2, 2015 Share Posted February 2, 2015 FWIW, I have a sneaking suspicion NYC and south may ultimately just dryslot after 13Z or so...assuming the cold air could hold longer than I currently expect this event could be entirely frozen...There is really no pronounced precip shield right now behind the main precip shield in front of the surface low. NYC and nearby areas are also in a perfect position based on low track to dry slot as well. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted February 2, 2015 Share Posted February 2, 2015 The radar looks terrible for anything before midnight Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
UlsterCountySnowZ Posted February 2, 2015 Author Share Posted February 2, 2015 The radar looks terrible for anything before midnight Already light snow up here Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
UlsterCountySnowZ Posted February 2, 2015 Author Share Posted February 2, 2015 FWIW, I have a sneaking suspicion NYC and south may ultimately just dryslot after 13Z or so...assuming the cold air could hold longer than I currently expect this event could be entirely frozen...There is really no pronounced precip shield right now behind the main precip shield in front of the surface low. NYC and nearby areas are also in a perfect position based on low track to dry slot as well.Most short terms have NYC and LHV dry slot big time as this thing pulls out... We got a lot going against us lol Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jm1220 Posted February 2, 2015 Share Posted February 2, 2015 On most models, NYC essentially gets a wall of snow/rain/slop for 6-8 hours before it heads east. By 15z it should all be over. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PB GFI Posted February 2, 2015 Share Posted February 2, 2015 On most models, NYC essentially gets a wall of snow/rain/slop for 6-8 hours before it heads east. By 15z it should all be over. NAH HRRR RAP RGEM NAM are all 4 to 6 - HRRR and RAP change over at 5 am . Its Minus 8 at 850 right now . KNYC will accumulate bud before it flips Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NycStormChaser Posted February 2, 2015 Share Posted February 2, 2015 Assuming this one stays this close the Pats would be 6 for 6 as far as playing entertaining superbowls, it would be remarkable that if they end up 4-2 after this game and its close that they never once blew an opponent out. And they played 3 teams they probably should have blown out too in the Giants twice and Carolina. Pure Banter and even off topic here. Lets see if the mods delete it like they did with the attacks against Pamelas sexuality last night. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
danstorm Posted February 2, 2015 Share Posted February 2, 2015 FWIW, I have a sneaking suspicion NYC and south may ultimately just dryslot after 13Z or so...assuming the cold air could hold longer than I currently expect this event could be entirely frozen...There is really no pronounced precip shield right now behind the main precip shield in front of the surface low. NYC and nearby areas are also in a perfect position based on low track to dry slot as well. I've been on the dry slot train, as well. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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