ineedsnow Posted February 1, 2015 Share Posted February 1, 2015 i think those count sleet as snow Here's the difference In totals on a weenie map, between 00z and 12z euro Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
sn0w Posted February 1, 2015 Share Posted February 1, 2015 Here's the difference In totals on a weenie map, between 00z and 12z euro wow 12Z Euro still slams us up here...more snow than I thought Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
UlsterCountySnowZ Posted February 1, 2015 Author Share Posted February 1, 2015 i think those count sleet as snow True but most the larger totals in the Hudson valley never mix on the euro, and if they do it's brief, especially North of 84 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
UlsterCountySnowZ Posted February 1, 2015 Author Share Posted February 1, 2015 i think those count sleet as snow And many of those numbers are a difference of 6 inches or more and I don't think anyone's seeing 6" of sleet lol Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
GD0815 Posted February 1, 2015 Share Posted February 1, 2015 Temperatures have really warmed thus far, already 38 here and could get up to 40 which is several degrees above forecast. don't focus so much on this, your dew points are still low, and temps have leveled off or even started to come down to the south. Plenty of other things to sweat of course lol Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CIK62 Posted February 1, 2015 Share Posted February 1, 2015 GFS LAMP forecast has JFK at 42 tomorrow afternoon while CPK is 34 at the same time. No sub-freezing temps. till precip. probs. begin to drop it would seem. It gives 4" for CPK and 2" for JFK through early PM tommorow. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RU848789 Posted February 1, 2015 Share Posted February 1, 2015 For the purposes of a forecast and things like warnings, snow depth is way less important than frozen precip mass, which is all that really matters with regard to safety, travel, shoveling, etc. The NWS doesn't do warnings based on prettiness of the snow, but on impact of the frozen precip, so 3" of snow and 1" of sleet (at at ~3:1 LE/sleet ratio) is the equivalent of 6" of snow at 10:1 with respect to mass and impact. My only point is that with snow and sleet or snow, sleet and freezing rain, it's not about the depth for warnings, it's about the frozen mass - and freezing rain on top of frozen snow/sleet will add to that mass. So unless the changeover to plain rain occurs well before ~.6" of LE as frozen mass has fallen (which very well may occur, but is not indicated on the Euro for NYC down to about New Brunswick), I wouldn't expect them to back off on warnings. I don't know this for sure, but I do a ton of emergency preparedness activities, including for our 4000 person site in Rahway for weather, and we consider frozen mass much more than snow depth and I would imagine the NWS does the same. Will be interesting to see. Here's what Mt. Holly just said (bold added by me). I think their point is they'll wait until 4 pm at least, before making changes. .NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...A COLD FRONT IS DRAPED FROM INTERIOR NEW ENGLAND SOUTHWESTWARD TOWESTERN PENNSYLVANIA, THEN TO LOWER PRESSURE IN THE MID-MISSISSIPPIVALLEY. THE WATER VAPOR IMAGERY SHOWS A WELL DEFINED SHORT WAVEDIGGING ACROSS THE CENTRAL PLAINS AND THE MID-MISSISSIPPI VALLEY.THIS FEATURE DOES LOOK MORE AMPLIFIED, WHICH SHOULD RESULT IN ADOWNSTREAM NORTHWARD STORM TRACK OF THE SURFACE LOW. IT IS THISFEATURE THAT HAS BEEN VARYING SOME AND HAVING AN IMPACT ON THE STORMTRACK AND RELATED THERMAL PROFILES ACROSS MUCH OF OUR REGION THELAST SEVERAL DAYS. IT DOES APPEAR THAT A WARMER SOLUTION WILL OCCUR,HOWEVER NO CHANGES ARE BEING MADE ATTM TO THE PRECIPITATION TYPEEVOLUTION IN OUR FORECAST OR THE ADVISORIES/WARNINGS. THE 12Z NAMWOULD SUGGEST THAT PHILADELPHIA IS MAINLY JUST RAIN AS THE BOUNDARYLAYER WARMS ENOUGH. WE WILL AWAIT ADDITIONAL MODEL GUIDANCE BEFOREMAKING CHANGES, HOWEVER THE WSW PRODUCT WAS RESENT TO MAKE SOMEADJUSTMENTS TO THE GROUPINGS AND ADD SOME MORE INFORMATION. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wkd Posted February 1, 2015 Share Posted February 1, 2015 Here is eurowx's map at 36hrs. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ineedsnow Posted February 1, 2015 Share Posted February 1, 2015 im not saying that one inch of sleet can equal 3 or 4 inches of snow on those maps And many of those numbers are a difference of 6 inches or more and I don't think anyone's seeing 6" of sleet lol Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jm1220 Posted February 1, 2015 Share Posted February 1, 2015 Here is eurowx's map at 36hrs. euro7.png Congrats I-90, which is exactly what happens with 90% of these SWFEs. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
GD0815 Posted February 1, 2015 Share Posted February 1, 2015 Here is eurowx's map at 36hrs. euro7.png i saw a different map with a little more snow for Philly, but we know how these things can vary Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ineedsnow Posted February 1, 2015 Share Posted February 1, 2015 the euro wx map is correct i saw a different map with a little more snow for Philly, but we know how these things can vary Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Amped Posted February 1, 2015 Share Posted February 1, 2015 Flash freeze tomorrow afternoon on the NAM. You guyd will need an axe to shovel this **** if you wait. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowblind Posted February 1, 2015 Share Posted February 1, 2015 I was at an advisory 2-4" now im back up to 5-8"wsw... why? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
UlsterCountySnowZ Posted February 1, 2015 Author Share Posted February 1, 2015 I was at an advisory 2-4" now im back up to 5-8"wsw... why? Lmao... What a mess Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
toople Posted February 1, 2015 Share Posted February 1, 2015 Does anyone have a link to Hrrrr and RAP model? Thanks. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Brian5671 Posted February 1, 2015 Share Posted February 1, 2015 Flash freeze tomorrow afternoon on the NAM. You guyd will need an axe to shovel this **** if you wait. yup alot of rutted roadways in the areas that get some rain on top of the slop Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
donsutherland1 Posted February 1, 2015 Share Posted February 1, 2015 Does anyone have a link to Hrrrr and RAP model? Thanks. HRRR: http://rapidrefresh.noaa.gov/HRRR/ RAP: http://rapidrefresh.noaa.gov/RAP/ Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WintersGrasp Posted February 1, 2015 Share Posted February 1, 2015 HRRR: http://rapidrefresh.noaa.gov/HRRR/ RAP: http://rapidrefresh.noaa.gov/RAP/ Is there any way to make those images larger ? From that site they always seem to block out the NYC/NENJ metro areas so you can't see details. I've always used twister data for the RAP and/or wxbell, but I would love to use that site that you provided if higher quality close-ups are possible. Thanks Don Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Allsnow Posted February 1, 2015 Share Posted February 1, 2015 Nam has a better front end this run...2-4 then ice in nyc Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Allsnow Posted February 1, 2015 Share Posted February 1, 2015 Rain in the city by 09z. Nam is weaker with primary and now develops a secondary low south of phl Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RU848789 Posted February 1, 2015 Share Posted February 1, 2015 I was at an advisory 2-4" now im back up to 5-8"wsw... why? Old Bridge was in a watch until 4 am, which was converted to a warning this morning at 4 am - had never been under an advisory, although I'll be very surprised if the warning isn't converted to an advisory at 4 pm, given the modeled warmth and lower snow/sleet/ZR predictions. We'll see. Old Bridge, by the Mt. Holly snowfall map and point/click is about 2-3" of snow, not 5-8". Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
donsutherland1 Posted February 1, 2015 Share Posted February 1, 2015 Is there any way to make those images larger ? From that site they always seem to block out the NYC/NENJ metro areas so you can't see details. I've always used twister data for the RAP and/or wxbell, but I would love to use that site that you provided if higher quality close-ups are possible. Thanks Don Unfortunately, I'm not aware of whether there is any way to enlarge the images. I agree that it would be helpful. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Brian5671 Posted February 1, 2015 Share Posted February 1, 2015 Rain in the city by 09z. Nam is weaker with primary and now develops a secondary low south of phl Well that's interesting. That's what the models orginally had-a low off the DE Bay vs Northern NJ Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Zelocita Weather Posted February 1, 2015 Share Posted February 1, 2015 Nam significantly snowier/colder 4-6" on front for most of north jersey... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WintersGrasp Posted February 1, 2015 Share Posted February 1, 2015 Nam has a better front end this run...2-4 then ice in nycI'm looking at the RAP on my phone on twister data (usually comp/wxbell), but judging by the precip maps and different temp maps, does it show 4"+ for the area before changing over? I'm possibly not seeing it right. Looks much improved to me Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Allsnow Posted February 1, 2015 Share Posted February 1, 2015 Well that's interesting. That's what the models orginally had-a low off the DE Bay vs Northern NJ You don't get above frz this run.. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
toople Posted February 1, 2015 Share Posted February 1, 2015 donsutherland1, on 01 Feb 2015 - 3:02 PM, said: HRRR: http://rapidrefresh.noaa.gov/HRRR/ RAP: http://rapidrefresh.noaa.gov/RAP/ Thank You! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Brian5671 Posted February 1, 2015 Share Posted February 1, 2015 You don't get above frz this run.. how much snow/ice in SW CT per the nam? thx Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bluewave Posted February 1, 2015 Share Posted February 1, 2015 Euro has 2-4 for nyc before change over. Then back to light snow Monday afternoon The potholes are going to get even bigger after the quick freeze tomorrow night. Tomorrow will be tricky with the ponding of water during the day hiding the depth of the holes. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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