UlsterCountySnowZ Posted February 1, 2015 Author Share Posted February 1, 2015 Light snow into the area by 1700 tonight on HRRR Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jm1220 Posted February 1, 2015 Share Posted February 1, 2015 I think he was serious. If you pay attention to Forky, he drops some pearls using few words. This wasn't that hard to see coming once the north/warm trend started. Once that starts it very rarely reverses on these type of systems. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
UlsterCountySnowZ Posted February 1, 2015 Author Share Posted February 1, 2015 According to HRRR NYC stays all snow for more than 6+ hours Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
hudsonvalley21 Posted February 1, 2015 Share Posted February 1, 2015 According to HRRR NYC stays all snow for more than 6+ hours Will see what the 18z runs tell us. It just might pan out for all of Orange and north to stay all snow. A tough call. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
rgwp96 Posted February 1, 2015 Share Posted February 1, 2015 euro still the coldest of the model surface wise. even has backend snow on this run Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
UlsterCountySnowZ Posted February 1, 2015 Author Share Posted February 1, 2015 Will see what the 18z runs tell us. It just might pan out for all of Orange and north to stay all snow. A tough call. Gonna be tough but the short term models are certainly further south with mix line with the exception of the nam Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
UlsterCountySnowZ Posted February 1, 2015 Author Share Posted February 1, 2015 euro still the coldest of the model surface wise. even has backend snow on this run Euro and short term models agree on the cold aka rap and HRRR Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Allsnow Posted February 1, 2015 Share Posted February 1, 2015 Euro has 2-4 for nyc before change over. Then back to light snow Monday afternoon Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jm1220 Posted February 1, 2015 Share Posted February 1, 2015 Gonna be tough but the short term models are certainly further south with mix line with the exception of the nam They usually revert to the mean of the other models once they're more into their range. They underestimated the western extent of the snow on Monday by quite a bit at the end of their range. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
sferic Posted February 1, 2015 Share Posted February 1, 2015 What is the earliest this gets into NYC tonight? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
easternsnowman Posted February 1, 2015 Share Posted February 1, 2015 euro is always the most reliable short term temp wise, while rgem seems to have a warm bias. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Brian5671 Posted February 1, 2015 Share Posted February 1, 2015 Euro has 2-4 for nyc before change over. Then back to light snow Monday afternoon how about up this way? (SW CT) Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NorthShoreWx Posted February 1, 2015 Share Posted February 1, 2015 This wasn't that hard to see coming once the north/warm trend started. Once that starts it very rarely reverses on these type of systems. I think he was first though. Beyond just the current storm, I find he throws out stuff that is worth thinking about. Good stuff with little noise (most of the time ) Much better quality posts than the pages and pages of schizophrenic play by play and model misinterpretation that some others here indulge in. This is the type of situation where I have seen freezing hang in way longer than expected many times. These days I trust the models more than I used to, but to my eyes, they are not clear cut enough to declare this a done deal (despite the RGEM) with regard to duration of mixed precip on the north shore. The ocean beaches may be toast, but 25 miles north is not as clear cut. What I am seeing does not give me enough confidence to declare this will be a rain or icestorm. Although I m leaning towards rain, its not with the same degree of conviction that I've just been reading in this thread. And I do still think we get a good front end snowfall in line with what is still in the NWS forecast...4" or more. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
stlirish Posted February 1, 2015 Share Posted February 1, 2015 NYC 4"+ tonight supported by HRRR Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnowGoose69 Posted February 1, 2015 Share Posted February 1, 2015 euro is always the most reliable short term temp wise, while rgem seems to have a warm bias. The RGEM has tended to have a warm bias this winter, last year it didn't. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Rjay Posted February 1, 2015 Share Posted February 1, 2015 The RGEM has tended to have a warm bias this winter, last year it didn't. It always had one in my opinion but this is certainly a northern suburbs storm. May drop a few quick inches for nyc and LI then over to some sleet then rain. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wthrmn654 Posted February 1, 2015 Share Posted February 1, 2015 Monday 3:00am RAP freezing line is just south of rockland through NENJ With that map word for word, all of the island is above 32 expect parts of the north fork from about mattituck east... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnoSki14 Posted February 1, 2015 Share Posted February 1, 2015 Temperatures have really warmed thus far, already 38 here and could get up to 40 which is several degrees above forecast. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jdt Posted February 1, 2015 Share Posted February 1, 2015 18z SPC Meso Analysis 2hr pressure change. -4 in NW WV. Could it be a precursor of a slight southward track. Maybe, maybe not but a few miles makes a difference. http://www.spc.noaa.gov/exper/mesoanalysis/new/mobile.php Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
UlsterCountySnowZ Posted February 1, 2015 Author Share Posted February 1, 2015 All of Long Island and nyc are heavy snow at 2am HRRR... Really heavy band overhead during that time frame... Those only expecting 2-4" May be surprised Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Rjay Posted February 1, 2015 Share Posted February 1, 2015 All of Long Island and nyc are heavy snow at 2am HRRR... Really heavy band overhead during that time frame... Those only expecting 2-4" May be surprised That's near the end of its range. See what it says around 8 pm. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
stlirish Posted February 1, 2015 Share Posted February 1, 2015 All of Long Island and nyc are heavy snow at 2am HRRR... Really heavy band overhead during that time frame... Those only expecting 2-4" May be surprised I've been saying 4"+ for 2 days b/c of the setup. It's not perfect but it can't be ignored. People that are thinking this is just a warm rain storm are going to be wrong IMO Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
UlsterCountySnowZ Posted February 1, 2015 Author Share Posted February 1, 2015 That's near the end of its range. See what it says around 8 pm.Very similar to the euro tho, not something to ignoreAnd I don't buy Into the rap and HRRR having "ranges" they're a sim radar that run every hour so sample data is always refreshed and based off the previous hour, granted the odds of it being wrong are much higher as you approach the 10hr mark but i like them within 12hrs Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jm1220 Posted February 1, 2015 Share Posted February 1, 2015 Very similar to the euro tho, not something to ignore The Euro is 2-4" in NYC, much like the rest of guidance. 2-4" is probably the right call for now. I'm confident the NWS drops warnings in NYC and Long Island soon. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnoSki14 Posted February 1, 2015 Share Posted February 1, 2015 The HRRR and RAP had the right idea with the cutoff of the last storm though I'm not sure how they do regarding temperatures. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowblind Posted February 1, 2015 Share Posted February 1, 2015 Holly just upped Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
UlsterCountySnowZ Posted February 1, 2015 Author Share Posted February 1, 2015 Holly just upped What do u mean? Upped totals? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TheManWithNoFace Posted February 1, 2015 Share Posted February 1, 2015 What do u mean? Upped totals? Probably means updated. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WintersGrasp Posted February 1, 2015 Share Posted February 1, 2015 Very similar to the euro tho, not something to ignore And I don't buy Into the rap and HRRR having "ranges" they're a sim radar that run every hour so sample data is always refreshed and based off the previous hour, granted the odds of it being wrong are much higher as you approach the 10hr mark but i like them within 12hrs I used to think the same thing and was told otherwise.....and have found that they truly do have a range in which they are much more accurate. They can make BIG changes from run to run and change much more often the further out the run is (especially past 10-12 hours) Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
UlsterCountySnowZ Posted February 1, 2015 Author Share Posted February 1, 2015 Here's the difference In totals on a weenie map, between 00z and 12z euro Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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