IsentropicLift Posted January 31, 2015 Share Posted January 31, 2015 GFS is more amped up and digging further SW through 24hrs Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
UlsterCountySnowZ Posted January 31, 2015 Author Share Posted January 31, 2015 GFS is def more amped.. Isentropic, I'll let you takeover, your SV loop is 12 hrs ahead of my wxbell Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted January 31, 2015 Share Posted January 31, 2015 Not only is the SW significantly more amped up but it's also stronger. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PB GFI Posted January 31, 2015 Share Posted January 31, 2015 You say things with such conviction.., chill with the guaranteesthink probabilistically. I'm not saying we don't snow a lot here, perhaps 3-5" in 3 hours stuff with the crazy frontogenic forcing. But the mix line usually sets up north of the 850 0c...how many times do we see sneaky warmth bust a forecast? And no, heavy rates overcoming mid level warmth is the exception, not the rule. 5-8 would be my first call for nyc, but fragile setup. My response was to what layers need to be cold. 700 and 925 are cold. 850s are the problem as of now. Don't take offense to the tone. It's my way. As of right now the euro is colder and the last NAM runs trended our way. We both want the same thing but I am aware of the bust risk at KNYC for me . I think the confluence and block win the day. If I am wrong it effects no one . As far a front end I like 6 to 8. Then sleet then we will see what's on the back. My guess not much. We will see . Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted January 31, 2015 Share Posted January 31, 2015 You can see the energy over the Southwest causing our northern vort to dig more. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted January 31, 2015 Share Posted January 31, 2015 The first light snow arrives before kickoff Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Zir0b Posted January 31, 2015 Share Posted January 31, 2015 As I've said a few times before, with regard to impact on travel, shoveling, etc., mass of frozen precip is all that matters. So, even if we only get a few inches of snow, but then get a lot of sleet on top of that and even rain, freezing or not, which will simply be absorbed by the snow/sleet, it's the same mass of frozen precip at the end of the day. Sure, all snow is prettier and will get more attention, but I've always felt frozen mass is a far better way of comparing storms. I also think that some of the models are overdoing it with the northward progression of warm air and that the Euro has it right in that we'll get mostly snow, like 6-10" in the Edison area (my opinion is based on what a few folks here and elsewhere have sai, plus decades of observation on systems like this where models seem to underestimate the strength of the cold air - like a couple last March and Feb 2010, if I recall correctly - the one with the insane gradient from 0" in NYC to 2 feet in Philly) I agree, would probably go a bit lower for middlesex county for now 5-7 northern areas and 3-5 south followed by either sleet or zr. I am surprised we dont have a watch. A lot of people are going to get caught off guard for sunday night sb parties and especially for the morning commute. This storm looks way worse than the last one for roadway impact, especially with the cold surface temps. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted January 31, 2015 Share Posted January 31, 2015 This run is so much more amped up than 06z. Large differences from a model with a 48hr forecast. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted January 31, 2015 Share Posted January 31, 2015 This thread was meant for model discussion only, keep the other stuff in other thread Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted January 31, 2015 Share Posted January 31, 2015 The surface freezing line is north of KNYC at hr 48. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
danstorm Posted January 31, 2015 Share Posted January 31, 2015 My response was to what layers need to be cold. 700 and 925 are cold. 850s are the problem as of now. Don't take offense to the tone. It's my way. As of right now the euro is colder and the last NAM runs trended our way. We both want the same thing but I am aware of the bust risk at KNYC for me . I think the confluence and block win the day. If I am wrong it effects no one . As far a front end I like 6 to 8. Then sleet then we will see what's on the back. My guess not much. We will see . Actually that's right around my thinking. Also watch for a potential big dry slot. These quick hitters don't go on and on. You get slammed, then mix, then fzdz or shut off. Backside snows are 50-50 at this point... Further north more likely, where I think breaking a foot is doable. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted January 31, 2015 Share Posted January 31, 2015 Very tight thermal gradient with freezing rain north of 80 in NJ Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted January 31, 2015 Share Posted January 31, 2015 Freezing rain continues and spreads into LHV, MMU South plain rain, heavy. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snow1 Posted January 31, 2015 Share Posted January 31, 2015 Very warm run. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted January 31, 2015 Share Posted January 31, 2015 And that's about as far North as everything gets. Things start to cool after 18z but by then precip is shutting off. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted January 31, 2015 Share Posted January 31, 2015 Lots of plain rain this run from Rt. 80 and points South Lots of ice and sleet for NNJ North of MMU Lots of snow for LHV with brief mix. Initial front end dump Sunday night. Looks to be around 0.25-0.50" LE before things go South for NYC Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted January 31, 2015 Share Posted January 31, 2015 Funny how everyone bashed the NAM yesterday when it was showing the same thing Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
UlsterCountySnowZ Posted January 31, 2015 Author Share Posted January 31, 2015 Funny how everyone bashed the NAM yesterday when it was showing the same thing Nams showed this for almost 2 days Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Zir0b Posted January 31, 2015 Share Posted January 31, 2015 Funny how everyone bashed the NAM yesterday when it was showing the same thing figures the 84 hour NAM would be correct when it f's us Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jm1220 Posted January 31, 2015 Share Posted January 31, 2015 Wow, even up to Boston has to worry about mixing on this run. The low goes over or just south of LI-would definitely rain near NYC and the coast if that happened. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
UlsterCountySnowZ Posted January 31, 2015 Author Share Posted January 31, 2015 Lots of plain rain this run from Rt. 80 and points South Lots of ice and sleet for NNJ North of MMU Lots of snow for LHV with brief m Initial front end dump Sunday night. Looks to be around 0.25-0.50" LE before things go South for NYC[/quotes] How far north does the mix line get, I'm still at hour 42 lol Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NortheastPAWx Posted January 31, 2015 Share Posted January 31, 2015 The NAM however has since come back down a bit...will the GFS follow in the next couple runs? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
danstorm Posted January 31, 2015 Share Posted January 31, 2015 Funny how everyone bashed the NAM yesterday when it was showing the same thing Because the NAM belongs in the trash. You study every single model run, how do you not recognize that? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
rogue Posted January 31, 2015 Share Posted January 31, 2015 The NAM however has since come back down a bit...will the GFS follow in the next couple runs? 12z GFS is a disaster. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snywx Posted January 31, 2015 Share Posted January 31, 2015 Funny how everyone bashed the NAM yesterday when it was showing the same thing Yeah the NAM has been consistent with bringing the mix line as far as Rockland.. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Nygmen Posted January 31, 2015 Share Posted January 31, 2015 Funny how everyone bashed the NAM yesterday when it was showing the same thing Nam is the WORST model thats looked at here that will never change...sorry Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SleetStormNJ Posted January 31, 2015 Share Posted January 31, 2015 Have to see if the GGEM and Euro follow the GFS footsteps. Key will be watching what the GFS depicts and whether it follows true to form out in the Ohio Valley. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
UlsterCountySnowZ Posted January 31, 2015 Author Share Posted January 31, 2015 Let's not start this arguement again.. Move that crap to banter Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Juliancolton Posted January 31, 2015 Share Posted January 31, 2015 How far north does the mix line get, I'm still at hour 42 lol The COD NexLab site is almost always quite a bit speedier to roll out the NCEP models than wxbell, FWIW. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BoulderWX Posted January 31, 2015 Share Posted January 31, 2015 Funny how everyone bashed the NAM yesterday when it was showing the same thing again, not everyone... been running with the North track since yesterday morning... sticking with 3-6 call for NYC from the front end thump... could be less, if GFS is correct... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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