UlsterCountySnowZ Posted February 1, 2015 Author Share Posted February 1, 2015 Well I live in Northern Westchester... So I could see 6-8 inches then significant ice. Not on the rgem lol we all tourch for a while even up by me Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Snowman86 Posted February 1, 2015 Share Posted February 1, 2015 Passaic County in Clifton here. So from reading few last pages here. We are looking for a lot less Snow but more icing situation. My question is i have to be at work by 7 am and was wondering what the condition will be like on the roads. Thanks in advance. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Nygmen Posted February 1, 2015 Share Posted February 1, 2015 the fact that this is even turning into a rain event for the nw burbs in febuary with a high to the north is bizzare...cad is one of those things that never wrks out Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Animal Posted February 1, 2015 Share Posted February 1, 2015 Not on the rgem lol we all tourch for a while even up by me 12z gfs will mix you too Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
rgwp96 Posted February 1, 2015 Share Posted February 1, 2015 Passaic County in Clifton here. So from reading few last pages here. We are looking for a lot less Snow but more icing situation. My question is i have to be at work by 7 am and was wondering what the condition will be like on the roads. Thanks in advance. gfs shows very little ice except for extreme nw jersey Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Snowman86 Posted February 1, 2015 Share Posted February 1, 2015 gfs shows very little ice except for extreme nw jersey So based on your reply and to my understanding its mainly a rain event? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
rgwp96 Posted February 1, 2015 Share Posted February 1, 2015 So based on your reply and to my understanding its mainly a rain event? snow will go to rain on gfs Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Snowman86 Posted February 1, 2015 Share Posted February 1, 2015 snow will go to rain on gfs Well thank you for giving me a idea what to except in my area for monday morning travel to work. Thanks! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowblind Posted February 1, 2015 Share Posted February 1, 2015 So your saying all rain and no ice tgreat tomorrow here in oldbridge. ..central nj. Ill have no problem driving tomorrow morning. Now in advisory Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LongIslandWx Posted February 1, 2015 Share Posted February 1, 2015 Ok, based on looking at the last models, I think we'll see a similar situation to last Saturday. Heavy snow through about 5 or 6 am (NYC and LI), depositing 3 to perhaps 6" of snow. Then we see a brief period of freezing rain. Then it's light rain for a few hours. Then some snow showers for the afternoon with perhaps 1" or so...then a flash freeze by 6 - 8 pm or so. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
UlsterCountySnowZ Posted February 1, 2015 Author Share Posted February 1, 2015 12z gfs will mix you too Expected nothing less Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
allgame830 Posted February 1, 2015 Share Posted February 1, 2015 Ok, based on looking at the last models, I think we'll see a similar situation to last Saturday. Heavy snow through about 5 or 6 am (NYC and LI), depositing 3 to perhaps 6" of snow. Then we see a brief period of freezing rain. Then it's light rain for a few hours. Then some snow showers for the afternoon with perhaps 1" or so...then a flash freeze by 6 - 8 pm or so. Very much agreed... Cold air will be extremely tough to get rid of... This could be a bad ice storm just inland. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wthrmn654 Posted February 1, 2015 Share Posted February 1, 2015 Ok, when we had that big ice issue couple weeks ago,it was due to cold air for days and frozen ground and that didn't go away quickly... Frozen ground again, low off 17 when I woke up this morning, snow pack even with a lot of rain if it happens,won't erase the snow pack quickly out here, I see cold air coming down the river valley's in Connecticut, happens many times and does reinforce the cold on the north shore of eastern Suffolk in places. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wthrmn654 Posted February 1, 2015 Share Posted February 1, 2015 Yes, the forecast highs were always expected to be in the 30s today Sent from my iPhone It's likely not even going reach middle30 today here, it's only 25 right now Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
stlirish Posted February 1, 2015 Share Posted February 1, 2015 It's likely not even going reach middle30 today here, it's only 25 right now What's your location? Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LongIslandWx Posted February 1, 2015 Share Posted February 1, 2015 Ok, when we had that big ice issue couple weeks ago,it was due to cold air for days and frozen ground and that didn't go away quickly... Frozen ground again, low off 17 when I woke up this morning, snow pack even with a lot of rain if it happens,won't erase the snow pack quickly out here, I see cold air coming down the river valley's in Connecticut, happens many times and does reinforce the cold on the north shore of eastern Suffolk in places. You are right in that your snow pack won't be going anywhere, even with 1.00" of rain. I would be concerned with some flooding, however, since the rainfall won't have anywhere to drain. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ag3 Posted February 1, 2015 Share Posted February 1, 2015 NYC and LI do NOT need a warning. Please remove that. It's going to look ludicrous again. This is a 1"-2 of slop storm followed by heavy rain. Drop the warning. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LongIslandWx Posted February 1, 2015 Share Posted February 1, 2015 NYC and LI do NOT need a warning. Please remove that. It's going to look ludicrous again. This is a 1"-2 of slop storm followed by heavy rain. Drop the warning. Warning perhaps a bit overdone, but solid advisory criteria. Snow will come in heavy...and there will be more than 1-2" of slop. Probably 3-6". Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wthrmn654 Posted February 1, 2015 Share Posted February 1, 2015 What's your location?Sent from my iPhone eastern long island, snow pack of 30 inches. Yesterday didn't hit the high of25 either, only reached 20 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ag3 Posted February 1, 2015 Share Posted February 1, 2015 Rgem has 1" of slop snow followed by 30-40mm of heavy rain. Floods. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ag3 Posted February 1, 2015 Share Posted February 1, 2015 Warning perhaps a bit overdone, but solid advisory criteria. Snow will come in heavy...and there will be more than 1-2" of slop. Probably 3-6". Disagree. Rgem says 1" of slop followed by 1.25"-1.50" of heavy rain. Icing threat is done also. That looked like a chance yesterday. Not on today's suite. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ag3 Posted February 1, 2015 Share Posted February 1, 2015 This is mainly a heavy rain event and if Upton is reading this, winter storm warnings are ludicrous. 12z Rgem total rain: Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnoSki14 Posted February 1, 2015 Share Posted February 1, 2015 Rgem has 1" of slop snow followed by 30-40mm of heavy rain. Floods. Oh now people are finally getting it. Forky was right about this a few days ago though. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
stlirish Posted February 1, 2015 Share Posted February 1, 2015 This is mainly a heavy rain event and if Upton is reading this, winter storm warnings are ludicrous. 12z Rgem total rain: That's only if they believe this guidance (RGEM). Maybe they don't? Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
USCG RS Posted February 1, 2015 Share Posted February 1, 2015 That's only if they believe this guidance (RGEM). Maybe they don't? Sent from my iPhone All guidance is becoming increasingly warm Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnowGoose69 Posted February 1, 2015 Share Posted February 1, 2015 Oh now people are finally getting it. Forky was right about this a few days ago though. I'm not sure he was even serious; I never envisioned this getting this miserable, the problem is the system got too strong, the low track didn't go much further north from what it was 48 hours ago. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ag3 Posted February 1, 2015 Share Posted February 1, 2015 That's only if they believe this guidance (RGEM). Maybe they don't? Sent from my iPhone There is no guidance that supports anything more then 1"-3" of slop followed by a heavy and flooding rain fall. And yes, the Rgem should be heavily weighted. 90% of their forecast should be using the Rgem. DROP THE WARNINGS. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
stlirish Posted February 1, 2015 Share Posted February 1, 2015 All guidance is becoming increasingly warm I see it as well but I'm still not buying it completely. I still like the idea of 4-6" of heavy snow before mixing Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
USCG RS Posted February 1, 2015 Share Posted February 1, 2015 There is no guidance that supports anything more then 1"-3" of slop followed by a heavy and flooding rain fall. And yes, the Rgem should be heavily weighted. 90% of their forecast should be using the Rgem. DROP THE WARNINGS. It's not as simple as that. They have issued them. The forecast discussion shows that the forecaster expects it to be a messy morning commute. The afternoon shift could decided they're not warranted, but, if they drop them and then a last second curveball happens, they are responsible to millions of people. It's very hard to drop warnings before an event once they are issued. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnoSki14 Posted February 1, 2015 Share Posted February 1, 2015 I'm not sure he was even serious; I never envisioned this getting this miserable, the problem is the system got too strong, the low track didn't go much further north from what it was 48 hours ago. The high to the north is also not strong enough. We probably would've seen a strong CAD setup if the high was around 1040 mb or so. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Recommended Posts
Archived
This topic is now archived and is closed to further replies.