BoulderWX Posted February 1, 2015 Share Posted February 1, 2015 You can wish cast until the cows come home but the writing has been on the wall since Friday morning. 100% agree with this... not like this was a last minute trend... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnowGoose69 Posted February 1, 2015 Share Posted February 1, 2015 The RGEM is even warmer, if that's the case, most nearby inland areas go to rain as well, I have not seen the Ptypes yet but I can tell it definitely is warmer Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jm1220 Posted February 1, 2015 Share Posted February 1, 2015 It's so unlikely...that we have WS Warning for total accumulation of 4-8" by Upton. Sent from my iPhone They'll probably be taken down soon, unless Upton wants to play up the potential for freezing rain, which in the city is doubtful. The NAM gets the city and LI above freezing pretty quickly. The south shore gets close to 40. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
UlsterCountySnowZ Posted February 1, 2015 Author Share Posted February 1, 2015 The RGEM is even warmer, if that's the case, most nearby inland areas go to rain as well, I have not seen the Ptypes yet but I can tell it definitely is warmermAre u referring to the 06z run? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
allgame830 Posted February 1, 2015 Share Posted February 1, 2015 With 6:1 ratios I would need almost 2.5" liquid qpf to meet my current forcast of 12-16 lol Your not going to have 6:1... More likely normal to 12:1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnowGoose69 Posted February 1, 2015 Share Posted February 1, 2015 m Are u referring to the 06z run? No, the 12Z...I don't have ptypes yet but its thicknesses are at least 20-30 miles further north at 12Z than the previous run Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
stlirish Posted February 1, 2015 Share Posted February 1, 2015 They'll probably be taken down soon, unless Upton wants to play up the potential for freezing rain, which in the city is doubtful. The NAM gets the city and LI above freezing pretty quickly. The south shore gets close to 40. Short range modeling has the precip getting in here early and being heavy. It's going to Snow here and for a decent period of time before any warmth gets introduced. Everyone keeps focusing on the mix and changeover but that's after a lot of the heavier stuff has already moved through (which will be frozen for most) Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
USCG RS Posted February 1, 2015 Share Posted February 1, 2015 They'll probably be taken down soon, unless Upton wants to play up the potential for freezing rain, which in the city is doubtful. The NAM gets the city and LI above freezing pretty quickly. The south shore gets close to 40.They would likely wait to do this. I could see it happening during the storm, but not before, even if just for consistency purposes. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
UlsterCountySnowZ Posted February 1, 2015 Author Share Posted February 1, 2015 No, the 12Z...I don't have ptypes yet but its thicknesses are at least 20-30 miles further north at 12Z than the previous run Where do u have 12z run already? I wa sunder the impression it doesn't run till 1020 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jm1220 Posted February 1, 2015 Share Posted February 1, 2015 The RGEM is even warmer, if that's the case, most nearby inland areas go to rain as well, I have not seen the Ptypes yet but I can tell it definitely is warmer The NAM even gets sleet all through CT and RI now. If I was in Boston I might even be concerned about sleet at the end of it. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
allgame830 Posted February 1, 2015 Share Posted February 1, 2015 They'll probably be taken down soon, unless Upton wants to play up the potential for freezing rain, which in the city is doubtful. The NAM gets the city and LI above freezing pretty quickly. The south shore gets close to 40. Since when do we follow the NAM temp profiles... They are always to warm!! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnoSki14 Posted February 1, 2015 Share Posted February 1, 2015 Flash freeze tomorrow? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jm1220 Posted February 1, 2015 Share Posted February 1, 2015 Short range modeling has the precip getting in here early and being heavy. It's going to Snow here and for a decent period of time before any warmth gets introduced. Everyone keeps focusing on the mix and changeover but that's after a lot of the heavier stuff has already moved through (which will be frozen for most) Sent from my iPhone The NAM gets the 0c line at 850 to NYC after only maybe 0.15-0.20" precip falls. The surface temp is also at or above freezing for NYC. There's a ESE wind driving warm air straight off the Atlantic-so precip may not even go over to sleet in NYC, it might go straight to rain, and there could be up to an inch of rain. This isn't good news for NYC at all. You really have to hope that the warming can be delayed by a heavy onset of snow. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
UlsterCountySnowZ Posted February 1, 2015 Author Share Posted February 1, 2015 I have wxbell and RGEM hasn't even initialised yet? Where are people getting its 12z run from, it doesn't come out till 1020 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jm1220 Posted February 1, 2015 Share Posted February 1, 2015 Since when do we follow the NAM temp profiles... They are always to warm!! The NAM has the low driving into NW PA and a strong ESE wind. It's not too warm in this case. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnowGoose69 Posted February 1, 2015 Share Posted February 1, 2015 I have wxbell and RGEM hasn't even initialised yet? Where are people getting its 12z run from, it doesn't come out till 1020 It's out in the black and whites on the environment Canada page Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
stlirish Posted February 1, 2015 Share Posted February 1, 2015 The NAM gets the 0c line at 850 to NYC after only maybe 0.15-0.20" precip falls. The surface temp is also at or above freezing for NYC. There's a ESE wind driving warm air straight off the Atlantic-so precip may not even go over to sleet in NYC, it might go straight to rain, and there could be up to an inch of rain. This isn't good news for NYC at all. You really have to hope that the warming can be delayed by a heavy onset of snow. Where is the immediate warming coming from?? Sorry but it's not going to warm up here until the SLP is closer to our west and we can get closer to the warm front it tries to drag up and over us before the low moves east. There will be a very large expansive precip shield that will arrive WELL before the low is close to us and with the CAD and the 50/50 in place, we are not going to just shoot above freezing. The NAM is wrong. Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
allgame830 Posted February 1, 2015 Share Posted February 1, 2015 The NAM has the low driving into NW PA and a strong ESE wind. It's not too warm in this case. Yea and we all know how that worked out for the last time in regards to the NAM... Use past experience NAM is always too warm... This is going to be a bad ice storm for interior!! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Saturn510 Posted February 1, 2015 Share Posted February 1, 2015 Warming going on now and many of us has south or south west winds Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jm1220 Posted February 1, 2015 Share Posted February 1, 2015 Yea and we all know how that worked out for the last time in regards to the NAM... Use past experience NAM is always too warm... This is going to be a bad ice storm for interior!! I wasn't talking about the interior-I was talking about areas near the coast. If there's an ESE wind there, it's the kiss of death. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
danstorm Posted February 1, 2015 Share Posted February 1, 2015 Warming going on now and many of us has south or south west winds Shhhh the weenies will continue to be adamant even in the face of hard evidence. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
killabud Posted February 1, 2015 Share Posted February 1, 2015 this isn't some weenie denial or anything,i am very realistic about what will happen in my area but wasn't this initial warmth always supposed to happen? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Allsnow Posted February 1, 2015 Share Posted February 1, 2015 Shhhh the weenies will continue to be adamant even in the face of hard evidence. Only way we save this event is a good front end dump...the 12z models so far don't look that greT for that anymore....this is quickly turning into a all rain event. Congrats forky. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnowGoose69 Posted February 1, 2015 Share Posted February 1, 2015 The RGEM has JFK to rain by 07-08z and LGA by 09-10..it's only an inch or two now for most of LI and the southern 5 boroughs, it had no freezing rain accumulation at all south of the tappan zee bridge Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
UlsterCountySnowZ Posted February 1, 2015 Author Share Posted February 1, 2015 Only way we save this event is a good front end dump...the 12z models so far don't look that greT for that anymore....this is quickly turning into a all rain event. Congrats forky.I doubt anyone North of westchester and rockland see a bad ice storm, they will most likely change over for a while but certainly not the durationEdit: this was in reference to allgame not all snow sorry Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
stlirish Posted February 1, 2015 Share Posted February 1, 2015 this isn't some weenie denial or anything,i am very realistic about what will happen in my area but wasn't this initial warmth always supposed to happen? Yes, the forecast highs were always expected to be in the 30s today Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
USCG RS Posted February 1, 2015 Share Posted February 1, 2015 No reason to have nyc and north central nj in a warning anymore....Theyll likely hold off for consistency reasons. Just in case of a last second curveball etc. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
UlsterCountySnowZ Posted February 1, 2015 Author Share Posted February 1, 2015 No reason to have nyc and north central nj in a warning anymore.... Agreed Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Allsnow Posted February 1, 2015 Share Posted February 1, 2015 Gfs about 2-4 before rain for nyc Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
allgame830 Posted February 1, 2015 Share Posted February 1, 2015 I doubt anyone North of westchester and rockland see a bad ice storm, they will most likely change over for a while but certainly not the duration Edit: this was in reference to allgame not all snow sorry Well I live in Northern Westchester... So I could see 6-8 inches then significant ice. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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