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Post super bowl storm Model discussion


UlsterCountySnowZ

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Dude, what are you talking about? By hour 21 the city is plain rain. LI is a mix but surface is warm.

 

NYC is not going to be raining a hour 21, the 850s are still -1 to -2C, I don't think they changeover til 11Z or so...remember, the models don't grasp evaporative cooling so you van knock several degrees off temps before that entire layer from 800-950 warms

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This run has very little frozen or freezing precip for NYC or LI and over 1.25" of rain.

 

Remember too the NAM is dreadfully slow advancing in precipitation, I think only 2-4 inches falls in NYC but the NAM will be wrong showing nothing, its because it hardly gets anything in there til 09z

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NYC is not going to be raining a hour 21, the 850s are still -1 to -2C, I don't think they changeover til 11Z or so...remember, the models don't grasp evaporative cooling so you van knock several degrees off temps before that entire layer from 800-950 warms

I picked that panel because the surface is 33F in NYC at that hour.
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Imo the nam at initialization, doesn't even look like current radar sounds, precip shield on current radar are far more expansive than modeled... Anyone else think so or am I just wrong lol

 

It always is, it sucks on timing, the NAM always shows less frozen precip in these types of systems because its 2-4 hours too late on bringing precip in

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