RU848789 Posted February 1, 2015 Share Posted February 1, 2015 Went to bed after the Euro and assumed I'd wake up to many of the watches being dropped and much lower snowfall forecasts, especially for Central Jersey. Wrong. All the same counties are now under winter storm warnings, including Middlesex, where my snow fall forecast was actually increased a bit - although the gradient is even steeper, from 1=2" in the southern edge of the county to 6-8" in the northern quarter of the county (N of 287, which is east - west in our area), where I live. That's a very steep gradient over about 30 miles. Here's the relevant portion of the AFD and the latest map: THE PRECIPITATION TYPE FORECAST IS MAINLY DERIVEDFROM THE 00Z NAM. THE 00Z GFS LOOKED TO HAVE TO INTENSE OF A LOWPRESSURE SYSTEM WHICH IN TURN ALLOWS FOR MORE WARM AIR ADVECTION.THE ECMWF IS STILL ON THE COOLER END OF THE SPECTRUM WITH THE NAM INBETWEEN THESE SOLUTIONS. THE SREF AND WPC QPF FORECAST WAS USED ASWELL WITH GOOD MODEL AGREEMENT ON QPF IN THIS PERIOD. THIS RESULTSIN ADDITIONAL SNOW AND ICE ACCUMULATIONS FOR NORTHERN PARTS OF THECWA IN THIS PERIOD. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
UlsterCountySnowZ Posted February 1, 2015 Author Share Posted February 1, 2015 HRRR looks to try and push a moderate band into the area around just after kickoff tonight, very early but still Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
UlsterCountySnowZ Posted February 1, 2015 Author Share Posted February 1, 2015 Rap has everyone in the moderate/heavy snows by 11pm Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dmillz25 Posted February 1, 2015 Share Posted February 1, 2015 Can anyone tell me how did the GFS looked this morning? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
UlsterCountySnowZ Posted February 1, 2015 Author Share Posted February 1, 2015 Can anyone tell me how did the GFS looked this morning? No real changes from its 00z Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BoulderWX Posted February 1, 2015 Share Posted February 1, 2015 Can anyone tell me how did the GFS looked this morning? about 1-3" of snow for you before you mix http://www.instantweathermaps.com/GFS-php/showmap-conussfc.php?run=2015020106&time=PER&var=ASNOWI&hour=054 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
UlsterCountySnowZ Posted February 1, 2015 Author Share Posted February 1, 2015 For anyone with IMBY questions regarding models here's the free site most people use.. It's usually got a pretty good delay, but wit you wanna know how a model looks for your area you can go look http://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/navm.html?model=nam®ion=us&pkg=mslp_pcpn_frzn&runtime=2015011012&fh=0&xpos=0&ypos=100 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WIN Posted February 1, 2015 Share Posted February 1, 2015 Ive seen numerous comments trying to refute the mix/change scenario based on a "fresh" cold air mass. It seems to me that this air mass is already a bit stale, with the fresh cold immediately behind the storm. Still hoping for 6" or so prior to taint where i am, but we'll see. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Allsnow Posted February 1, 2015 Share Posted February 1, 2015 My call Nyc 6 JFK 3.6 Lga 4.2 Ewr 6.2 Bdr. 9 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Big Jims Videos Posted February 1, 2015 Share Posted February 1, 2015 Went to bed at 12:30 am in wall nj it was 15 degrees. Woke up it was 25. Heading to Edison to do some storm stuff today with 12, Woodbridge is lending the township 7 salt trucks after this week's fire. Middlesex looks to be quite a battleground once again, but I'm skeptical of the cold air hanging on any longer than models show. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jdt Posted February 1, 2015 Share Posted February 1, 2015 Ive seen numerous comments trying to refute the mix/change scenario based on a "fresh" cold air mass. It seems to me that this air mass is already a bit stale, with the fresh cold immediately behind the storm. Still hoping for 6" or so prior to taint where i am, but we'll see. I would not call it stale it just appears the storm will be bit stronger and will able to nudge further north. The cold is not so much retreating but more holding steady to being slightly nudged north. As usual the surface temps will hold the best but mid levels will warm enough to change many from snow to sleet and or freezing rain. The trick now is where do the various transitions occur and how far to the north and NW does the surface freezing line get. Oh and how much snow falls before all this happens. Nothing complicated about that forecast. Lol Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Allsnow Posted February 1, 2015 Share Posted February 1, 2015 Went to bed at 12:30 am in wall nj it was 15 degrees. Woke up it was 25. Heading to Edison to do some storm stuff today with 12, Woodbridge is lending the township 7 salt trucks after this week's fire. Middlesex looks to be quite a battleground once again, but I'm skeptical of the cold air hanging on any longer than models show. I'm thinking 3-4 for Edison....you? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
EasternLI Posted February 1, 2015 Share Posted February 1, 2015 00z MOS, this is the warmest panel. Getting a little concerned about ice, rare out here, but it can happen Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
UlsterCountySnowZ Posted February 1, 2015 Author Share Posted February 1, 2015 Only lesson is the uk model snuffed out the north trend. Nope.. Nam was North at 84hrs Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnowGoose69 Posted February 1, 2015 Share Posted February 1, 2015 Nope.. Nam was North at 84hrs It always is, that was just luck more than anything else. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
UlsterCountySnowZ Posted February 1, 2015 Author Share Posted February 1, 2015 It always is, that was just luck more than anything else. I'm not saying it wasn't, but I'm certainly not awarding the ukmet lol...nam was 150 miles north of most other guidance 3 days ago, The nam has hardly budge on ANY run since 84hrs as rare as that may be its the truth Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
USCG RS Posted February 1, 2015 Share Posted February 1, 2015 Upton is bullish on ice for the area that is currently under the WSWarning. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Big Jims Videos Posted February 1, 2015 Share Posted February 1, 2015 I'm thinking 3-4 for Edison....you? It all depends how fast the precip gets here. One of My favorite mets SallyAnn was in today and we were talking about the potential for ice here. She's concerned that it could get icy especially up near morristown. But for Edison it will be a race between the warm punch and precip arrival. 3-4 sounds like a good call, maybe a little more on the hilltops just north of 22. The temp rise surprised me. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
UlsterCountySnowZ Posted February 1, 2015 Author Share Posted February 1, 2015 Btw the ukmet had this storm at santas workshop 24 hrs ago.. Far from reliable imo Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Morris Posted February 1, 2015 Share Posted February 1, 2015 SREF? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
UlsterCountySnowZ Posted February 1, 2015 Author Share Posted February 1, 2015 Sref Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Voyager Posted February 1, 2015 Share Posted February 1, 2015 but I'm skeptical of the cold air hanging on any longer than models show. Me too Jim. I'm up to 28 already back here in the coal region. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LongBeachSurfFreak Posted February 1, 2015 Share Posted February 1, 2015 Looks like uptown is going to go right with my plan of WWA for the south shore. The only thing that Concerns me about this idea is the fact that there is a WSW for cape cod. The big deal here will be the wind direction. If it goes south of east at any point we rain. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Mikehobbyst Posted February 1, 2015 Share Posted February 1, 2015 I think this is a major ice storm for all of LI including the south shore, with the 32 degree isotherm never making it north of Ocean Parkway near the beaches. I think we get .35-.50 inch of ZR and very serious event. The models are overplaying the 33-34 degree boundary layer on LI south shore, not with NE winds and bitter cold air mass just over the sound feeding very low DP air. This is a classic LI ice storm, come on folks don't u see it. Don't want this, but this is what we'll get. I think this will be much more serious than being forecasted. This is the January 1994 big ZR event all over again........ This is a 29/29 ZR event after the SN changes to PL and ZR. This is not the marginal 32/32 ZR which is much less impact. Growing very concerned about this. Hope the models trend colder and this becomes a IP pinger fest. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted February 1, 2015 Share Posted February 1, 2015 There was a reason why for days none of the CIPS analogs had significant snow here and most had ice storms. Still for the city I expect 2-4" on the front end. Out here I'm expecting 6-10" and 0.35" of ice. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LongBeachSurfFreak Posted February 1, 2015 Share Posted February 1, 2015 I think this is a major ice storm for all of LI including the south shore, with the 32 degree isotherm never making it north of Ocean Parkway near the beaches. I think we get .35-.50 inch of ZR and very serious event. The models are overplaying the 33-34 degree boundary layer on LI south shore, not with NE winds and bitter cold air mass just over the sound feeding very low DP air. This is a classic LI ice storm, come on folks don't u see it. Don't want this, but this is what we'll get. I think this will be much more serious than being forecasted. This is the January 1994 big ZR event all over again........ This is a 29/29 ZR event after the SN changes to PL and ZR. This is not the marginal 32/32 ZR which is much less impact. Growing very concerned about this. Hope the models trend colder and this becomes a IP pinger fest. I think there is allot more pining. Will there be freezing rain sure but I think it's mainly north of the lie. Even in 94 the freezing rain was way worse north of the southern state. I think at my house it goes to plain rain for a couple hours. Regardless what is on the ground is gonna be a sleet filled heavy slushy mess. It needs to be moved immediately or it's going to freeze into glacier Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Morris Posted February 1, 2015 Share Posted February 1, 2015 NAM? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
UlsterCountySnowZ Posted February 1, 2015 Author Share Posted February 1, 2015 NAM? Brings mix line up to rockland so far Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
robPAwx Posted February 1, 2015 Share Posted February 1, 2015 Expecting around 5.5"-10" this way. We tend to do good with these events here. Also expect the same for EWR. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
UlsterCountySnowZ Posted February 1, 2015 Author Share Posted February 1, 2015 Everyone from orange Western Orange, putnum south changes over briefly, storm moving out by hr 30 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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