SnowWisher Posted February 1, 2015 Share Posted February 1, 2015 Warmer and a lot more rain for NYC and points south and east.. Some back end snows is what colors in this map a little 00z Euro Weenie snowfall totals map Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Mitchel Volk Posted February 1, 2015 Share Posted February 1, 2015 Seems like the new and improved GFS is just that. GFS 2 ECMWF 0 for the past two major events. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
UlsterCountySnowZ Posted February 1, 2015 Author Share Posted February 1, 2015 Well I think models are in pretty food agreement at what we can all expect, doesn't get much more cut and dry than that Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
UlsterCountySnowZ Posted February 1, 2015 Author Share Posted February 1, 2015 Seems like the new and improved GFS is just that. GFS 2 ECMWF 0 for the past two major events. Just throwing this out there.. The nam had this at 84hrs out Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnowWisher Posted February 1, 2015 Share Posted February 1, 2015 I'm all rain on the South Shore of Long Island per 00z Euro... Not even a front end dump Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Mitchel Volk Posted February 1, 2015 Share Posted February 1, 2015 No ECMWF is a great model, it's nice to see that the GFS is now more useful. But, it does seem like the ECMWF has a slight westward and northward bias for these strong events. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Monmouth_County_Jacpot Posted February 1, 2015 Share Posted February 1, 2015 Was about to say on to the next one but is there a next one?? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
UlsterCountySnowZ Posted February 1, 2015 Author Share Posted February 1, 2015 No ECMWF is a great model, it's nice to see that the GFS is now more useful. But, it does seem like the ECMWF has a slight westward and northward bias for these strong events. I would take a blend of the GFS/GGEM Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Animal Posted February 1, 2015 Share Posted February 1, 2015 No ECMWF is a great model, it's nice to see that the GFS is now more useful. But, it does seem like the ECMWF has a slight westward and northward bias for these strong events. Dude it crapped the bed the past 6 snow events in nnj Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Morch Madness Posted February 1, 2015 Share Posted February 1, 2015 Dude it crapped the bed the past 6 snow events in nnj Every model has sucked this winter, and every model has trended north with the storm. Euro is still the best model in the world, and anyone who is gonna throw it out for future storms because of its recent history had better prepare to be wrong most of the time. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jm1220 Posted February 1, 2015 Share Posted February 1, 2015 Wow, sorry guys. To be honest, I'm glad I'm here away from it all. It might make a run at 40 on the south shore if not make it to 40 with driving rain, with bitter cold preceding and following it. This just isn't NYC's winter. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jm1220 Posted February 1, 2015 Share Posted February 1, 2015 And this still has more time to trend north. This should be a lesson to everyone not to hump SWFE storms without blocking. They always trend north, always. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Animal Posted February 1, 2015 Share Posted February 1, 2015 And this still has more time to trend north. This should be a lesson to everyone not to hump SWFE storms without blocking. They always trend north, always. Only lesson is the uk model snuffed out the north trend. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jm1220 Posted February 1, 2015 Share Posted February 1, 2015 Every model has sucked this winter, and every model has trended north with the storm. Euro is still the best model in the world, and anyone who is gonna throw it out for future storms because of its recent history had better prepare to be wrong most of the time.Sorry, but the Euro crapped the bed the last couple of events. It may be atypical of it but still the truth. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Animal Posted February 1, 2015 Share Posted February 1, 2015 Just glad the gfs is a superior model these days. Atleast I now only need to watch this model and maybe the uk. Toilet model list Nam, euro, Canadian , Japanese model Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Morch Madness Posted February 1, 2015 Share Posted February 1, 2015 Sorry, but the Euro crapped the bed the last couple of events. It may be atypical of it but still the truth. Not saying it hasn't, but people forget it was the first model to sniff out the blizzard. It's not infallible like we once thought but it is still the best, especially medium to long range. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Quincy Posted February 1, 2015 Share Posted February 1, 2015 Where's the talk about the big sleet potential? I think the 32F line will have trouble getting NW of NYC. I could even see the North Shore staying mostly sleet/freezing rain. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jm1220 Posted February 1, 2015 Share Posted February 1, 2015 Not saying it hasn't, but people forget it was the first model to sniff out the blizzard. It's not infallible like we once thought but it is still the best, especially medium to long range.Well hopefully up by you this can still be a good event. If people would just remember the climo for SWFE events, it would save all this agita. I never saw this as a real snow possibility for NYC. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TwcMan Posted February 1, 2015 Share Posted February 1, 2015 I think it's best to just watch the radar tomorrow night. Not saying this will be the case but colder air could hang around longer due to the CAD not being modeled correctly. It's happened before and this could be a case where the rain/snow has a very hard time advancing north of NYC. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jm1220 Posted February 1, 2015 Share Posted February 1, 2015 Dude we want snow. Sleet is like washing your car when it rains. It sucks. Sleet isn't bad when there's a snowpack. It helps preserve it longer. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
USCG RS Posted February 1, 2015 Share Posted February 1, 2015 Where's the talk about the big sleet potential? I think the 32F line will have trouble getting NW of NYC. I could even see the North Shore staying mostly sleet/freezing rain.Yes, there is a major icing potential here. Last second colder trends are very possible, especially at the surface. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Sn0waddict Posted February 1, 2015 Share Posted February 1, 2015 Just glad the gfs is a superior model these days. Atleast I now only need to watch this model and maybe the uk. Toilet model list Nam, euro, Canadian , Japanese model Last time I checked Euro is still #1 on the verification scores. It's a global model, not a NNJ model, or even a NE model for that matter. 20 mile shifts mean crap in the middle of canada, but it means a **** ton here. To ignore that model is incredibly foolish. Also no one ever pointed this out, but the JMA was quite consistent with giving us next to nothing for last weeks "blizzard" As for the GFS, I really hope it's finally an elite weather model. It would be awesome to have an elite model run four times a day at 6HR frames vs the twice a day euro. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jm1220 Posted February 1, 2015 Share Posted February 1, 2015 Yes, there is a major icing potential here. Last second colder trends are very possible, especially at the surface.The problem is the wind direction. Models now have NYC switching to an E or ESE wind, which warms things up fast and causes rain. If that doesn't happen, it will stay sleet with possibly freezing rain. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
USCG RS Posted February 1, 2015 Share Posted February 1, 2015 The problem is the wind direction. Models now have NYC switching to an E or ESE wind, which warms things up fast and causes rain. If that doesn't happen, it will stay sleet with possibly freezing rain.I'm still not convinced that the low will make it as far North as the models are showing. A thirty mile shift South with the LP and/or the warm front, and many on the subforum see a crippling ice storm. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BxWeatherwatcher Posted February 1, 2015 Share Posted February 1, 2015 i dunno but it's going to be close,the cold air is starting to funnel in and we still have cold air around.i expect snow and lots of it before it transitions to ice,the only 2 models that have us at or just below freezing from midtown north is the rhmc model and even the nam doesn't really warm us up as the cmc and and gfs does,most models also have underestimated the cold because it's snowing in missouri when all the models have it as mostly rain a.t.m.1 more rule of thumb,if it snows in chicago,cleveland,and pittsburgh,then it will most likely snow in n.y.c. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnoSki14 Posted February 1, 2015 Share Posted February 1, 2015 Euro says bye bye snow pack it seems and big time flooding rains on LI. Gfs is showing a lot more promise now as a good model. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Zelocita Weather Posted February 1, 2015 Share Posted February 1, 2015 Warnings up from middlesex north.... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
poleshiftnow Posted February 1, 2015 Share Posted February 1, 2015 The south trend has started with the 6z 12z should see a big jump south. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jdt Posted February 1, 2015 Share Posted February 1, 2015 Look for the south trend starting on The 12z run today. 850 line should be right on the Delware NJ state line during the whole event Massive hit coming That would be quite the change in such short order and goes against all guidance and trends. I will say it is possible at this juncture slight adjustments south can happen but there are equal chances this also trends slightly further north. Basically expect some bouncing in either direction but not tremendous moves. Of course just minor shifts will potentially lead to significant differences in the sensible weather at anyone location throughout the entirety of the event. As of now its very difficult to ignore the warmer north trend. Anyone south of about I-84 is quite likely to mix with sleet and or freezing rain and perhaps plain rain near I-80 especially east of I-287. I-78 on south snow to mix to rain looking to be the likely outcome. A growing concern of a moderate to significant ice event somewhere between I-78 and I-84. North of I-84 still looks mainly snow but sleet will come into play for a period of time. Back to snow on the backside but how much precip will there be. That is a typical wild card. Take that scenario and now modestly shift it north or south 20-40 miles (a reasonsble possibility at this juncture) and millions see there sensible weather outcome change significantly. As of now I would go with 6-12" north of I-84 mainly snow but some sleet. South to I-80 5-9" with snow to sleet to freezing rain with possibly 0.25"+ ice. South to I-78 3-6" snow to sleet to freezing rain to rain. 0-4" south of I-78 snow to mix to rain. All areas back to snow but only minor amounts south of I-78 modest amounts possible north of I-78. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Voyager Posted February 1, 2015 Share Posted February 1, 2015 For those wondering about surface temps, WAA has already reared it's ugly head here in Eastern PA. When I went to bed last night it was 14 degrees. This morning at 5:30, upon waking, I am already up to a balmy 26 degrees. That kind of surprised me as I thought we'd hold the teens throughout the night here. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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