jm1220 Posted February 1, 2015 Share Posted February 1, 2015 It has been this whole time, and I don't buy it.. 6+" anyone North of NYC, up to 12" the further north you go You're in a much, much better spot than 95% of this subforum. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnowGoose69 Posted February 1, 2015 Share Posted February 1, 2015 For those really wanting it to stay frozen, 1/3/96 is the #1 analog on cips at 850mb and 500 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jm1220 Posted February 1, 2015 Share Posted February 1, 2015 Even if temps go above freezing, it would only be slightly above freezing. Snow doesn't get washed away when it's that cold. It usually absorbs most of the rain when temps are only slightly above freezing. Then when the cold air rushes back in, the snowpavk will be hard as a rock. It would have to be way above freezing to wash it away. If it gets to the upper 30s along the coast and it's raining, they will lose a ton of snow. I know from experience being on the wrong side of coastal fronts in 10-11. Home in Long Beach we would lose half our snowpack in the generally marginal events that year while on Old Country Road it wouldn't get above 33 and they would barely lose anything. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
donsutherland1 Posted February 1, 2015 Share Posted February 1, 2015 For those really wanting it to stay frozen, 1/3/96 is the #1 analog on cips at 850mb and 500 The issue with that analog is that the storm took place with an AO-/PNA+. This time around, the PNA is negative. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted February 1, 2015 Share Posted February 1, 2015 For those really wanting it to stay frozen, 1/3/96 is the #1 analog on cips at 850mb and 500 Nice analog although the low in 96 transferred further south than what the models are showing with this storm. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NortheastPAWx Posted February 1, 2015 Share Posted February 1, 2015 From what I'm hearing Low temps for tonight are busting between 4-8 degrees below forcast, def something to keep an eye on as this could play a role during tomorrow's model runs having a better sample of just how cold the surface is SFC temps won't make a difference for those out of the liquid zones dude. All about the 700-900 layers... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
UlsterCountySnowZ Posted February 1, 2015 Author Share Posted February 1, 2015 You're in a much, much better spot than 95% of this subforum.I know that's why I'm staying un-biased to my area, I truely don't believe these models are sampling the mid levels properly and think many will be surprised how quickly they change back to snow, if they change at all, especially the places right in the borderline now Correct me if I'm wrong cause im not a met but if the pv dips further south than modeled that will keep the mix pushed further south correct? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
UlsterCountySnowZ Posted February 1, 2015 Author Share Posted February 1, 2015 SFC temps won't make a difference for those out of the liquid zones dude. All about the 700-900 layers... I understand that Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snywx Posted February 1, 2015 Share Posted February 1, 2015 From what I'm hearing Low temps for tonight are busting between 4-8 degrees below forcast, def something to keep an eye on as this could play a role during tomorrow's model runs having a better sample of just how cold the surface is Surface temps mean nothing when it comes to warm mid levels... it will still ping Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LongBeachSurfFreak Posted February 1, 2015 Share Posted February 1, 2015 The problem is that winds switch around to ESE. Doesn't matter how cold the preceding air is or snowcover, that will take it over to rain. Guaranteed. The ocean is still well above freezing. Ese winds are a death blow for the immediate south shore. The winds the high Dews and I suspect the salt kill snow. You I and bluewave have experienced some serious snow pack destroyers over the years. Even being back in wantagh the last few winters I haven't seen anything like that. It's alllllllll about surface winds. We stay ne despite what it's doing at 850 or even 950 and the pack stays. It's a big time now cast event. I like the amount of cold in place Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
USCG RS Posted February 1, 2015 Share Posted February 1, 2015 I know that's why I'm staying un-biased to my area, I truely don't believe these models are sampling the mid levels properly and think many will be surprised how quickly they change back to snow, if they change at all, especially the places right in the borderline now Correct me if I'm wrong cause im not a met but if the pv dips further south than modeled that will keep the mix pushed further south correct? Honestly, while I believe a Southward correction is still in the works, it's the low levels we have to worry about. This could be a nasty ice storm for much of the area. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RU848789 Posted February 1, 2015 Share Posted February 1, 2015 Even if temps go above freezing, it would only be slightly above freezing. Snow doesn't get washed away when it's that cold. It usually absorbs most of the rain when temps are only slightly above freezing. Then when the cold air rushes back in, the snowpack will be hard as a rock. It would have to be way above freezing to wash it away. If it gets to the upper 30s along the coast and it's raining, they will lose a ton of snow. I know from experience being on the wrong side of coastal fronts in 10-11. Home in Long Beach we would lose half our snowpack in the generally marginal events that year while on Old Country Road it wouldn't get above 33 and they would barely lose anything. People from NYC eastward with a foot of more of snow (or more accurately with 1" or more LE) will lose very little of their snowpack even with 1/2-3/4" of rain at 35F. The reason is the thermal mass of the rain is less than the thermal mass of the 32F or lower snowpack which contains over 1" of LE, plus it takes significant energy to melt frozen water, which also decreases how much of the snowpack will melt. The result will be absorption, with minimal melting. The snowpack, though, will "appear" to be greatly reduced, but that's simply due to compaction, as the rain will at least melt some of the dendrites before freezing in the snowpack, destroying the macro-structure of the snow that's on the ground. I guarantee you, though, that the mass of the new snowpack will be within 10-20% of the mass of the original snowpack plus the mass of what falls. I've measured this many times, including last winter, when we had rain on top of snow and all that did was compact the snowpack, while adding the mass of the rain to it. The exception to this is at the edges of the snowpack and on paved surfaces with much less snow on them - then the thermal mass of the rain will likely be enough to melt the much smaller thermal mass of the greatly reduced snowpack. For snowpacks that contain maybe 0.5" LE or less, melting will start to become much more significant. Hard to predict exactly, but these are guidelines. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NorthShoreWx Posted February 1, 2015 Share Posted February 1, 2015 You're going to see a ton of sleet and ice. You're snow pack is going to be impenetrable after this storm. I saw the snow out there the other day and it's very impressive. Add a nice layer if sleet and it's not going anywhere any time soon. Another great winter period on the way for the north shore of Suffolk I think you might be right. I was just posting my read of the model soundings from the 0Z runs. Both have a good front end snow dump. NAM follows up with a ton of ice while GFS transitions to a plain rainstorm. Ironically, GFS actually has a little more snow than the NAM before changeover. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LongBeachSurfFreak Posted February 1, 2015 Share Posted February 1, 2015 I think you might be right. I was just posting my read of the model soundings from the 0Z runs. Both have a good front end snow dump. NAM follows up with a ton of ice while GFS transitions to a plain rainstorm. Ironically, GFS actually has a little more snow than the NAM before changeover. Even if you and Pam turn to rain it will get absorbed and just bolster that amazing pack. My game plan in life is to get a place out there eventually. Close enough to the city for to work there and close to the best beaches. Really the ultimate best of both worlds spot. I need more land for my horticultural needs then I could ever afford in Nassau. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NorthShoreWx Posted February 1, 2015 Share Posted February 1, 2015 People from NYC eastward with a foot of more of snow (or more accurately with 1" or more LE) will lose very little of their snowpack even with 1/2-3/4" of rain at 35F. The reason is the thermal mass of the rain is less than the thermal mass of the 32F or lower snowpack which contains over 1" of LE, plus it takes significant energy to melt frozen water, which also decreases how much of the snowpack will melt. The result will be absorption, with minimal melting. The snowpack, though, will "appear" to be greatly reduced, but that's simply due to compaction, as the rain will at least melt some of the dendrites before freezing in the snowpack, destroying the macro-structure of the snow that's on the ground. I guarantee you, though, that the mass of the new snowpack will be within 10-20% of the mass of the original snowpack plus the mass of what falls. I've measured this many times, including last winter, when we had rain on top of snow and all that did was compact the snowpack, while adding the mass of the rain to it. The exception to this is at the edges of the snowpack and on paved surfaces with much less snow on them - then the thermal mass of the rain will likely be enough to melt the much smaller thermal mass of the greatly reduced snowpack. For snowpacks that contain maybe 0.5" LE or less, melting will start to become much more significant. Hard to predict exactly, but these are guidelines. Thanks for the explanation. Without doing the math, I have subjectively observed this many times. 2/1/11 comes to mind as an example. We had over 5" SWE that got more added to it that day. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NorthShoreWx Posted February 1, 2015 Share Posted February 1, 2015 Even if you and Pam turn to rain it will get absorbed and just bolster that amazing pack. My game plan in life is to get a place out there eventually. Close enough to the city for to work there and close to the best beaches. Really the ultimate best of both worlds spot. I need more land for my horticultural needs then I could ever afford in Nassau. Having spent years working in the city, "close enough to work there" is debatable. If you don't mind spending 4 hours a day door to door, then it is close enough. But, we do what we have to. Of course I no longer get to experience a rainy day in the city and then watch the ground suddenly go from wet to white on the LIRR between Hicksville and Syosset. I can't count how many times I saw that. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
swamplover56 Posted February 1, 2015 Share Posted February 1, 2015 Euro? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
UlsterCountySnowZ Posted February 1, 2015 Author Share Posted February 1, 2015 Euro? Still loading Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
UlsterCountySnowZ Posted February 1, 2015 Author Share Posted February 1, 2015 My euro is taking forever to initialise, hasn't even loaded hr 06 yet.. Wxbell is useless Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
rgwp96 Posted February 1, 2015 Share Posted February 1, 2015 Euro? caving to the warmer models, by hr 39 all of north jersey over to sleet and rain below 78. li and the city rain as well Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
swamplover56 Posted February 1, 2015 Share Posted February 1, 2015 caving to the warmer models, by hr 39 all of north jersey over to sleet and rain below 78. li and the city rain as well How much falls on the front end? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snywx Posted February 1, 2015 Share Posted February 1, 2015 what a joke. all hail the gfs model. Actually the NAM lead the way lol.. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
UlsterCountySnowZ Posted February 1, 2015 Author Share Posted February 1, 2015 System is noticeable more robust, intial WAA is amped and heavy precip shield is much larger Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
rgwp96 Posted February 1, 2015 Share Posted February 1, 2015 How much falls on the front end? nyc and li already rain at hr 36 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
UlsterCountySnowZ Posted February 1, 2015 Author Share Posted February 1, 2015 At hr 24 compared to the 12z heavy precip pocket shifted from northern Kentucky to northern Ohio lol Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
UlsterCountySnowZ Posted February 1, 2015 Author Share Posted February 1, 2015 nyc and li already rain at hr 36 At hr 36 the lows In the same place as 12z mix line just extended North Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
UlsterCountySnowZ Posted February 1, 2015 Author Share Posted February 1, 2015 Hr42 992mb low just south of eastern Long Island Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Animal Posted February 1, 2015 Share Posted February 1, 2015 At hr 24 compared to the 12z heavy precip pocket shifted from northern Kentucky to northern Ohio lol i think we already know it rains, a cold rain too Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
UlsterCountySnowZ Posted February 1, 2015 Author Share Posted February 1, 2015 Hr 48 light snow still lingering, euro is a long duration event like the rgem and GFS Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
UlsterCountySnowZ Posted February 1, 2015 Author Share Posted February 1, 2015 Total qpf Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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