IsentropicLift Posted February 1, 2015 Share Posted February 1, 2015 RGEM has a heavy front end dump from TTN North. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted February 1, 2015 Share Posted February 1, 2015 The city flips to ice at 11z. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
sferic Posted February 1, 2015 Share Posted February 1, 2015 KJFK and KMSV pLEASE Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted February 1, 2015 Share Posted February 1, 2015 LI, NYC and NNJ south of Rt. 80 are over to plain rain by 13z. From Rt. 80 North to the NY State line is ice. Orange and Rockland are still snow. Westchester is a mix. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted February 1, 2015 Share Posted February 1, 2015 RGEM has a heavy front end dump from TTN North. RGEM is about 9 hours of snow for NYC collaboration.cmc.ec.gc.ca/cmc/cmdn/pcpn_type/pcpn_type_gem_reg.html Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted February 1, 2015 Share Posted February 1, 2015 990mb low passes over NNJ. As temps cool precip shuts off. Very nasty ice storm for the Northern half of Northern NNJ and the southern LHV. Snow North of that. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
UlsterCountySnowZ Posted February 1, 2015 Author Share Posted February 1, 2015 Rgem precip qpf Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snywx Posted February 1, 2015 Share Posted February 1, 2015 RGEM shows the initial precip hitting a brick wall over Central PA. Snow moves in around 01z. Long duration event on the RGEM.. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
gravitylover Posted February 1, 2015 Share Posted February 1, 2015 Does that whitish area on this side of the river mean I go to freezing mist for a period or straight up dry slot? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
UlsterCountySnowZ Posted February 1, 2015 Author Share Posted February 1, 2015 If the rgem verified someone in NWNJ or Hudson valley could see those 14" totals Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted February 1, 2015 Share Posted February 1, 2015 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted February 1, 2015 Share Posted February 1, 2015 Looks like a bullseye of 20-25mm of freezing rain near MMU. That's > 0.80" LE. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
UlsterCountySnowZ Posted February 1, 2015 Author Share Posted February 1, 2015 Noaa just increase my point and click totals, 9-16" Not sure what they see tho Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NorthShoreWx Posted February 1, 2015 Share Posted February 1, 2015 For LI north shore, 0Z GFS is ~6" snow followed by a rainstorm. Not much concern with ice on this run. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LongBeachSurfFreak Posted February 1, 2015 Share Posted February 1, 2015 For LI north shore, 0Z GFS is ~6" snow followed by a rainstorm. Not much concern with ice on this run. You're going to see a ton of sleet and ice. You're snow pack is going to be impenetrable after this storm. I saw the snow out there the other day and it's very impressive. Add a nice layer if sleet and it's not going anywhere any time soon. Another great winter period on the way for the north shore of Suffolk Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnowGoose69 Posted February 1, 2015 Share Posted February 1, 2015 For LI north shore, 0Z GFS is ~6" snow followed by a rainstorm. Not much concern with ice on this run. Not sure I buy it though, the RGEM would say the same but it's far out in it's range. I would be somewhat worried that NYC and northern Queens and Nassau don't go above 32 til after 15z Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted February 1, 2015 Share Posted February 1, 2015 For LI north shore, 0Z GFS is ~6" snow followed by a rainstorm. Not much concern with ice on this run. A little more south with the low and we will be fine Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted February 1, 2015 Share Posted February 1, 2015 Not sure I buy it though, the RGEM would say the same but it's far out in it's range. I would be somewhat worried that NYC and northern Queens and Nassau don't go above 32 til after 15z Sometimes the models are too quick to scoot out the low level cold air. There will be plenty of cold air around. I wonder if this storm turns out colder than modeled. It also depends on where the low tracks. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jm1220 Posted February 1, 2015 Share Posted February 1, 2015 Sometimes the models are too quick to scoot out the low level cold air. There will be plenty of cold air around. I wonder if this storm turns out colder than modeled. It also depends on where the low tracks. The problem is that winds switch around to ESE. Doesn't matter how cold the preceding air is or snowcover, that will take it over to rain. Guaranteed. The ocean is still well above freezing. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnowGoose69 Posted February 1, 2015 Share Posted February 1, 2015 The problem is that winds switch around to ESE. Doesn't matter how cold the preceding air is or snowcover, that will take it over to rain. Guaranteed. The ocean is still well above freezing. They won't switch around if there is a CAD signature, the NAM never flips winds at LGA. The only east winds they have are when it's snowing then they shift northeast Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted February 1, 2015 Share Posted February 1, 2015 GGEM has a big rainstorm for NYC after some snow. Warmest model by far. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnoSki14 Posted February 1, 2015 Share Posted February 1, 2015 You will need another notable adjustment to the south to make more progress. It still looks like whatever falls before will get washed away regardless if models are correct. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
UlsterCountySnowZ Posted February 1, 2015 Author Share Posted February 1, 2015 GGEM has a big rainstorm for NYC after some snow. Warmest model by far. It has been this whole time, and I don't buy it.. 6+" anyone North of NYC, up to 12" the further north you go Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted February 1, 2015 Share Posted February 1, 2015 You will need another notable adjustment to the south to make more progress. It still looks like whatever falls before will get washed away regardless if models are correct. That's if we even change to rain in the city. It's going to be close. I think we hover near freezing throughout the storm. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnowGoose69 Posted February 1, 2015 Share Posted February 1, 2015 That's if we even change to rain in the city. It's going to be close. I think we hover near freezing throughout the storm. The GFS now turns winds to 060 then 040 from 10-13Z, and of course it thinks it's 33/21 the entire time when it'll probably drop to 28 with evaporative cooling. I wouldn't feel comfortable on any call for a long period of FZRAPL til tomorrow but it's very possible. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnoSki14 Posted February 1, 2015 Share Posted February 1, 2015 That's if we even change to rain in the city. It's going to be close. I think we hover near freezing throughout the storm. Will have to keep an eye on temperatures tomorrow and see if they skew colder. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted February 1, 2015 Share Posted February 1, 2015 3-6 inch snowfall for NYC with 6+just to the north on the GGEM Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnowGoose69 Posted February 1, 2015 Share Posted February 1, 2015 The ukmet likes Santa Claus a bit less this run but it's still the most north model Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
UlsterCountySnowZ Posted February 1, 2015 Author Share Posted February 1, 2015 From what I'm hearing Low temps for tonight are busting between 4-8 degrees below forcast, def something to keep an eye on as this could play a role during tomorrow's model runs having a better sample of just how cold the surface is Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
winterwx21 Posted February 1, 2015 Share Posted February 1, 2015 You will need another notable adjustment to the south to make more progress. It still looks like whatever falls before will get washed away regardless if models are correct. Even if temps go above freezing, it would only be slightly above freezing. Snow doesn't get washed away when it's that cold. It usually absorbs most of the rain when temps are only slightly above freezing. Then when the cold air rushes back in, the snowpack will be hard as a rock. It would have to be way above freezing to wash it away. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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