Post super bowl storm Model discussion

[UlsterCountySnowZ]

The 00z solution brings more frozen precip compared to 18z. It's a step in the right direction and gives NYC more snow on the front end dump.

If you take his post literal then yes the nam did suck, but as the start of a possible trend it's much better than the alternative (aka North even more)

[Animal]

map is all about the front end dump/back end, and if the  nam is right

[UlsterCountySnowZ]

Who's gonna do PBP gfs? Isentric u got it?

[UlsterCountySnowZ]

map is all about the front end dump/back end, and if the nam is right

Remember the nam is not a long event like the other models.. Less than 12hrs it's in and out

[donsutherland1]

From Bufkit (maximum temperature in profile):

 

BDR: 18z NAM: 5.3"; 0z NAM: 6.7"

ISP: 18z NAM: 3.0"; 0z NAM: 3.2"

JFK: 18z NAM: 2.3"; 0z NAM: 3.1"

LGA: 18z NAM: 2.8"; 0z NAM: 4.5"

 

Modest improvements, even if they don't change my current thinking of 3"-6" in and around the city.

[SnowGoose69]

From hour 33 to 36 it looked like the RGEM was going to make a notable south shift and then it bailed on the idea and took the low north again...note the RGEM is not great past hour 30-36 so perhaps, perhaps that may be good news for some people, it appeared it was going to try and take this more south.

[UlsterCountySnowZ]

GFS is already way stronger WAA

[Monmouth_County_Jacpot]

Waa is warm air advection correct??

[IsentropicLift]

GFS looks the same through 24 hrs at H5

[UlsterCountySnowZ]

Seems a touch south isentric can u confirm?

[IsentropicLift]

Uh Oh. Surface low doesn't redevelop. Just exits off the SNJ coast.

[NorthShoreWx]

I ran the OZ NAM soundings for my lat/long.  Surface stays below freezing the entire time, in fact it is warmest when it is snowing and then starts to fall as the uppers warm.  Between 12z and 18z Monday is basically an icestorm on the north shore...possibly .5"+.  The depends on how much falls as sleet during the first and last parts of that period, but Monday could be pretty ugly.

 

We snow up until about 7AM at which point we go over to sleet.  Not sure how long the transition to Freezing rain will take because I get the soundings in 3 hour increments, but at 10AM it is a frozen mess (ZR).  By 1PM we are transitioning back and are either sleet or a sleet/snow mix.  We get close to .75" liquid during that period and my interpretation is that it falls mostly as freezing rain.

 

Again, this is a reading of the 0Z NAM soundings, not a forecast, although it could conceivably work out similar to that.

 

Also, looks like about 5" of snow prior to the taint.  Ends as snow, but only light amounts.

[IsentropicLift]

Bad ice storm from MMU to LHV. South of that is mostly rain. Maybe a few inches on the front end away from LI where precip arrives too late.

[IsentropicLift]

The transfer does end up occurring but not until the surface low is in SE PA which is very odd.

[gravitylover]

What's the timing of the ice?  I'd hate to be in the car on the way to work and have the whole world around me freeze up.

[LongBeachSurfFreak]

I still like my 4" for the south shore and a decent amount of sleet to brief freezing rain to rain back to snow and flash freeze. I think the models are locking in to final solutions south of today's runs. It's the north of the lie and northern NYC areas that could have real problem with ice. Regardless everyone better remove anything before late afternoon because it will flash freeze to glacier, the kind of stuff you need an ice pick to deal with. We are going to have a nice snow pack out on the island that should last through February barring any major torch. A crappy winter with a big come back.

[IsentropicLift]

00z NAM data for KLGA

 

150202/0300Z  27  11004KT  28.8F  SNOW   12:1| 0.3|| 0.00|| 0.00|| 0.024   12:1|  0.3|| 0.00|| 0.00|| 0.02  100|  0|  0
150202/0400Z  28  10004KT  28.8F  SNOW   13:1| 0.4|| 0.00|| 0.00|| 0.028   13:1|  0.7|| 0.00|| 0.00|| 0.05  100|  0|  0
150202/0500Z  29  10006KT  29.2F  SNOW   12:1| 0.3|| 0.00|| 0.00|| 0.024   12:1|  0.9|| 0.00|| 0.00|| 0.08  100|  0|  0
150202/0600Z  30  10008KT  29.7F  SNOW   14:1| 0.1|| 0.00|| 0.00|| 0.004   13:1|  1.0|| 0.00|| 0.00|| 0.08  100|  0|  0
----------------------------------------------+----++-----+-------------++--------------++-------------++-----------+---+---
150202/0700Z  31  10010KT  30.3F  SNOW   11:1| 0.1|| 0.00|| 0.00|| 0.012   12:1|  1.1|| 0.00|| 0.00|| 0.09  100|  0|  0
150202/0800Z  32  09012KT  30.3F  SNOW   11:1| 0.8|| 0.00|| 0.00|| 0.073   12:1|  1.9|| 0.00|| 0.00|| 0.16  100|  0|  0
150202/0900Z  33  10014KT  30.8F  SNOW   10:1| 1.2|| 0.00|| 0.00|| 0.122   11:1|  3.1|| 0.00|| 0.00|| 0.29  100|  0|  0
150202/1000Z  34  09015KT  31.9F  SNPL    6:1| 0.7|| 0.08|| 0.00|| 0.123    9:1|  3.8|| 0.08|| 0.00|| 0.41   69| 31|  0
150202/1100Z  35  08012KT  33.0F  SNPL    2:1| 0.0|| 0.00|| 0.00|| 0.219    9:1|  3.8|| 0.08|| 0.00|| 0.63   33| 57| 10
150202/1200Z  36  06015KT  32.1F  FZRA    0:1| 0.0|| 0.00|| 0.00|| 0.154    9:1|  3.8|| 0.08|| 0.00|| 0.78    0|  0|100
----------------------------------------------+----++-----+-------------++--------------++-------------++-----------+---+---
150202/1300Z  37  05016KT  30.5F  FZRA    0:1| 0.0|| 0.00|| 0.12|| 0.118    9:1|  3.8|| 0.08|| 0.12|| 0.90    0|  0|100
150202/1400Z  38  04015KT  28.7F  FZRA    0:1| 0.0|| 0.00|| 0.04|| 0.033    9:1|  3.8|| 0.08|| 0.16|| 0.93    0|  0|100
150202/1500Z  39  03013KT  27.6F  FZRA    0:1| 0.0|| 0.00|| 0.05|| 0.049    9:1|  3.8|| 0.08|| 0.21|| 0.98    0|  0|100
150202/1600Z  40  02012KT  26.9F  FZRA    0:1| 0.0|| 0.00|| 0.03|| 0.032    9:1|  3.8|| 0.08|| 0.24|| 1.02    0|  3| 97
150202/1700Z  41  01010KT  26.9F  ZRPL    0:1| 0.0|| 0.00|| 0.00|| 0.005    9:1|  3.8|| 0.08|| 0.25|| 1.02    0| 23| 77
 

[gravitylover]

So that's about 7 am change to fzra?

[IsentropicLift]

00z NAM data for KEWR

 

150202/0200Z  26  15003KT  29.0F  SNOW   14:1| 0.1|| 0.00|| 0.00|| 0.006   14:1|  0.1|| 0.00|| 0.00|| 0.01  100|  0|  0
150202/0300Z  27  11004KT  28.5F  SNOW   16:1| 0.5|| 0.00|| 0.00|| 0.029   15:1|  0.5|| 0.00|| 0.00|| 0.03  100|  0|  0
150202/0400Z  28  10004KT  28.5F  SNOW   14:1| 0.4|| 0.00|| 0.00|| 0.028   15:1|  0.9|| 0.00|| 0.00|| 0.06  100|  0|  0
150202/0500Z  29  11004KT  28.7F  SNOW   11:1| 0.2|| 0.00|| 0.00|| 0.021   14:1|  1.2|| 0.00|| 0.00|| 0.08  100|  0|  0
150202/0600Z  30  09007KT  29.0F          0:1| 0.0|| 0.00|| 0.00|| 0.000   14:1|  1.2|| 0.00|| 0.00|| 0.08    0|  0|  0
----------------------------------------------+----++-----+-------------++--------------++-------------++-----------+---+---
150202/0700Z  31  10010KT  29.9F  SNOW   10:1| 0.4|| 0.00|| 0.00|| 0.039   12:1|  1.5|| 0.00|| 0.00|| 0.12  100|  0|  0
150202/0800Z  32  09011KT  30.1F  SNOW   11:1| 1.1|| 0.00|| 0.00|| 0.096   12:1|  2.6|| 0.00|| 0.00|| 0.22  100|  0|  0
150202/0900Z  33  09012KT  30.3F  SNOW    9:1| 1.3|| 0.00|| 0.00|| 0.145   11:1|  3.9|| 0.00|| 0.00|| 0.37  100|  0|  0
150202/1000Z  34  08011KT  31.0F  SNPL    3:1| 0.6|| 0.20|| 0.00|| 0.180    8:1|  4.5|| 0.20|| 0.00|| 0.55   44| 56|  0
150202/1100Z  35  07011KT  32.3F  SNPL    2:1| 0.4|| 0.23|| 0.00|| 0.178    7:1|  4.9|| 0.43|| 0.00|| 0.72   37| 63|  0
150202/1200Z  36  06014KT  31.5F  FZRA    0:1| 0.0|| 0.00|| 0.13|| 0.122    7:1|  4.9|| 0.43|| 0.13|| 0.85    0|  0|100
----------------------------------------------+----++-----+-------------++--------------++-------------++-----------+---+---
150202/1300Z  37  04014KT  29.0F  FZRA    0:1| 0.0|| 0.00|| 0.09|| 0.089    7:1|  4.9|| 0.43|| 0.22|| 0.93    0|  0|100
150202/1400Z  38  03013KT  27.9F  FZRA    0:1| 0.0|| 0.00|| 0.05|| 0.046    7:1|  4.9|| 0.43|| 0.27|| 0.98    0|  2| 98
150202/1500Z  39  03012KT  26.9F  ZRPL    0:1| 0.0|| 0.02|| 0.04|| 0.054    7:1|  4.9|| 0.45|| 0.31|| 1.03    0| 21| 79
150202/1600Z  40  02010KT  25.6F  ZRPL    0:1| 0.0|| 0.03|| 0.02|| 0.036    7:1|  4.9|| 0.48|| 0.34|| 1.07    0| 39| 61
 

[UlsterCountySnowZ]

It's odd cause the mix line at hr 36 is well south of 18z run when he low is in eastern PA

[allgame830]

00z NAM data for KEWR

 

150202/0200Z  26  15003KT  29.0F  SNOW   14:1| 0.1|| 0.00|| 0.00|| 0.006   14:1|  0.1|| 0.00|| 0.00|| 0.01  100|  0|  0

150202/0300Z  27  11004KT  28.5F  SNOW   16:1| 0.5|| 0.00|| 0.00|| 0.029   15:1|  0.5|| 0.00|| 0.00|| 0.03  100|  0|  0

150202/0400Z  28  10004KT  28.5F  SNOW   14:1| 0.4|| 0.00|| 0.00|| 0.028   15:1|  0.9|| 0.00|| 0.00|| 0.06  100|  0|  0

150202/0500Z  29  11004KT  28.7F  SNOW   11:1| 0.2|| 0.00|| 0.00|| 0.021   14:1|  1.2|| 0.00|| 0.00|| 0.08  100|  0|  0

150202/0600Z  30  09007KT  29.0F          0:1| 0.0|| 0.00|| 0.00|| 0.000   14:1|  1.2|| 0.00|| 0.00|| 0.08    0|  0|  0

----------------------------------------------+----++-----+-------------++--------------++-------------++-----------+---+---

150202/0700Z  31  10010KT  29.9F  SNOW   10:1| 0.4|| 0.00|| 0.00|| 0.039   12:1|  1.5|| 0.00|| 0.00|| 0.12  100|  0|  0

150202/0800Z  32  09011KT  30.1F  SNOW   11:1| 1.1|| 0.00|| 0.00|| 0.096   12:1|  2.6|| 0.00|| 0.00|| 0.22  100|  0|  0

150202/0900Z  33  09012KT  30.3F  SNOW    9:1| 1.3|| 0.00|| 0.00|| 0.145   11:1|  3.9|| 0.00|| 0.00|| 0.37  100|  0|  0

150202/1000Z  34  08011KT  31.0F  SNPL    3:1| 0.6|| 0.20|| 0.00|| 0.180    8:1|  4.5|| 0.20|| 0.00|| 0.55   44| 56|  0

150202/1100Z  35  07011KT  32.3F  SNPL    2:1| 0.4|| 0.23|| 0.00|| 0.178    7:1|  4.9|| 0.43|| 0.00|| 0.72   37| 63|  0

150202/1200Z  36  06014KT  31.5F  FZRA    0:1| 0.0|| 0.00|| 0.13|| 0.122    7:1|  4.9|| 0.43|| 0.13|| 0.85    0|  0|100

----------------------------------------------+----++-----+-------------++--------------++-------------++-----------+---+---

150202/1300Z  37  04014KT  29.0F  FZRA    0:1| 0.0|| 0.00|| 0.09|| 0.089    7:1|  4.9|| 0.43|| 0.22|| 0.93    0|  0|100

150202/1400Z  38  03013KT  27.9F  FZRA    0:1| 0.0|| 0.00|| 0.05|| 0.046    7:1|  4.9|| 0.43|| 0.27|| 0.98    0|  2| 98

150202/1500Z  39  03012KT  26.9F  ZRPL    0:1| 0.0|| 0.02|| 0.04|| 0.054    7:1|  4.9|| 0.45|| 0.31|| 1.03    0| 21| 79

150202/1600Z  40  02010KT  25.6F  ZRPL    0:1| 0.0|| 0.03|| 0.02|| 0.036    7:1|  4.9|| 0.48|| 0.34|| 1.07    0| 39| 61

Could you post soundings for HPN?

[IsentropicLift]

If you're following at home, the 0.48" at EWR represents 0.48" Liquid Equivalent falling as sleet and the 0.34" is the LE of freezing rain. The 1.07" is the total LE for the event.

[IsentropicLift]

KHPN

 

150202/0300Z  27  11005KT  27.8F  SNOW   14:1| 0.2|| 0.00|| 0.00|| 0.012   14:1|  0.2|| 0.00|| 0.00|| 0.01  100|  0|  0
150202/0400Z  28  10007KT  28.1F  SNOW   16:1| 0.4|| 0.00|| 0.00|| 0.023   15:1|  0.5|| 0.00|| 0.00|| 0.03  100|  0|  0
150202/0500Z  29  10009KT  28.3F  SNOW   16:1| 0.5|| 0.00|| 0.00|| 0.030   15:1|  1.0|| 0.00|| 0.00|| 0.06  100|  0|  0
150202/0600Z  30  10011KT  28.1F  SNOW   13:1| 0.2|| 0.00|| 0.00|| 0.019   15:1|  1.2|| 0.00|| 0.00|| 0.08  100|  0|  0
----------------------------------------------+----++-----+-------------++--------------++-------------++-----------+---+---
150202/0700Z  31  10013KT  28.3F  SNOW   11:1| 0.1|| 0.00|| 0.00|| 0.012   14:1|  1.4|| 0.00|| 0.00|| 0.09  100|  0|  0
150202/0800Z  32  09016KT  27.9F  SNOW   12:1| 0.7|| 0.00|| 0.00|| 0.055   14:1|  2.0|| 0.00|| 0.00|| 0.15  100|  0|  0
150202/0900Z  33  09017KT  28.3F  SNOW    9:1| 0.9|| 0.00|| 0.00|| 0.095   12:1|  2.9|| 0.00|| 0.00|| 0.24  100|  0|  0
150202/1000Z  34  09019KT  28.3F  SNOW    9:1| 1.0|| 0.00|| 0.00|| 0.120   11:1|  3.9|| 0.00|| 0.00|| 0.37  100|  0|  0
150202/1100Z  35  08017KT  26.3F  SNOW    7:1| 1.1|| 0.00|| 0.00|| 0.163    9:1|  5.0|| 0.00|| 0.00|| 0.53  100|  0|  0
150202/1200Z  36  07018KT  25.1F  SNPL    5:1| 0.5|| 0.08|| 0.00|| 0.109    9:1|  5.5|| 0.08|| 0.00|| 0.64   64| 36|  0
----------------------------------------------+----++-----+-------------++--------------++-------------++-----------+---+---
150202/1300Z  37  06018KT  24.5F  ZRPL    0:1| 0.0|| 0.10|| 0.06|| 0.103    9:1|  5.5|| 0.18|| 0.06|| 0.74    0| 49| 51
150202/1400Z  38  05015KT  22.9F  ZRPL    0:1| 0.0|| 0.07|| 0.01|| 0.044    9:1|  5.5|| 0.25|| 0.07|| 0.78    0| 77| 23
150202/1500Z  39  03011KT  23.4F  ZRPL    0:1| 0.0|| 0.06|| 0.01|| 0.041    9:1|  5.5|| 0.31|| 0.08|| 0.83    0| 75| 25
150202/1600Z  40  01009KT  24.0F  PL      0:1| 0.0|| 0.07|| 0.00|| 0.037    9:1|  5.5|| 0.38|| 0.08|| 0.86    9| 91|  0
150202/1700Z  41  01009KT  24.2F  SNPL    2:1| 0.0|| 0.01|| 0.00|| 0.010    9:1|  5.6|| 0.40|| 0.08|| 0.87   26| 74|  0
 

[IsentropicLift]

KMMU

 

150202/0200Z  26  15003KT  27.9F  SNOW   16:1| 0.2|| 0.00|| 0.00|| 0.010   16:1|  0.2|| 0.00|| 0.00|| 0.01  100|  0|  0
150202/0300Z  27  12004KT  27.8F  SNOW   17:1| 0.5|| 0.00|| 0.00|| 0.029   17:1|  0.7|| 0.00|| 0.00|| 0.04  100|  0|  0
150202/0400Z  28  11005KT  27.8F  SNOW   13:1| 0.4|| 0.00|| 0.00|| 0.031   15:1|  1.1|| 0.00|| 0.00|| 0.07  100|  0|  0
150202/0500Z  29  11005KT  27.9F  SNOW   11:1| 0.2|| 0.00|| 0.00|| 0.021   14:1|  1.3|| 0.00|| 0.00|| 0.09  100|  0|  0
150202/0600Z  30  10008KT  28.3F  SNOW    9:1| 0.0|| 0.00|| 0.00|| 0.005   14:1|  1.3|| 0.00|| 0.00|| 0.10  100|  0|  0
----------------------------------------------+----++-----+-------------++--------------++-------------++-----------+---+---
150202/0700Z  31  10010KT  28.7F  SNOW    9:1| 0.5|| 0.00|| 0.00|| 0.056   12:1|  1.9|| 0.00|| 0.00|| 0.15  100|  0|  0
150202/0800Z  32  09012KT  28.8F  SNOW   12:1| 1.3|| 0.00|| 0.00|| 0.108   12:1|  3.1|| 0.00|| 0.00|| 0.26  100|  0|  0
150202/0900Z  33  09012KT  28.8F  SNOW    9:1| 1.5|| 0.00|| 0.00|| 0.162   11:1|  4.6|| 0.00|| 0.00|| 0.42  100|  0|  0
150202/1000Z  34  08011KT  29.2F  SNOW    7:1| 1.2|| 0.00|| 0.00|| 0.179   10:1|  5.8|| 0.00|| 0.00|| 0.60   91|  9|  0
150202/1100Z  35  07012KT  30.6F  SNPL    4:1| 0.5|| 0.09|| 0.00|| 0.131    9:1|  6.3|| 0.09|| 0.00|| 0.73   65| 35|  0
150202/1200Z  36  06014KT  30.1F  FZRA    0:1| 0.0|| 0.00|| 0.11|| 0.104    9:1|  6.3|| 0.09|| 0.11|| 0.84    0|  0|100
----------------------------------------------+----++-----+-------------++--------------++-------------++-----------+---+---
150202/1300Z  37  05014KT  28.3F  FZRA    0:1| 0.0|| 0.00|| 0.08|| 0.080    9:1|  6.3|| 0.09|| 0.19|| 0.92    0|  0|100
150202/1400Z  38  04012KT  27.0F  FZRA    0:1| 0.0|| 0.00|| 0.06|| 0.061    9:1|  6.3|| 0.09|| 0.26|| 0.98    0| 10| 90
150202/1500Z  39  03011KT  26.0F  PL      0:1| 0.0|| 0.12|| 0.00|| 0.059    9:1|  6.3|| 0.21|| 0.26|| 1.04    4| 96|  0
150202/1600Z  40  02009KT  24.5F  SNPL    2:1| 0.1|| 0.05|| 0.00|| 0.033    8:1|  6.3|| 0.26|| 0.26|| 1.07   18| 82|  0
 

[gravitylover]

Well that just says don't go to work doesn't it.  

[IsentropicLift]

00z GFS never mixes above southern rockland

At 15z Monday the 850mb freezing line stretches from High Point, NJ to Middletown, NY, to White Plains, NY

[IsentropicLift]

Based on the NAM about 60% of what falls is sleet or freezing rain but at least a large chunk of it is sleet.

[jets]

How about the nam data for KSMQ?

[IsentropicLift]

RGEM shows the initial precip hitting a brick wall over Central PA. Snow moves in around 01z.

[IsentropicLift]

How about the nam data for KSMQ?

Sorry that site is unavailable.