UlsterCountySnowZ Posted January 31, 2015 Author Share Posted January 31, 2015 Nice start clown maps anyone? Nice start clown maps anyone? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Metsfan Posted January 31, 2015 Share Posted January 31, 2015 So the mixing will be more sleet or freezing rain? Sleet based on soundings. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bluewave Posted January 31, 2015 Share Posted January 31, 2015 This is prob all snow for the N shore of Nassau County where there is still 20 inches OTG . I would like to see how far north the 850 zero gets on 12z Euro. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snywx Posted January 31, 2015 Share Posted January 31, 2015 Nam puts out 1.0"+ for everyone except far NW burbs.. With ratios I would say a general 12-15" north of rockland and depending on if nyc can stay all snow or not 6-10 before a changeover, if they stay all snow nyc could see 12" Que? MGJ -- 1.05" SWF -- 1.05" FWN -- 1.10" Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
UlsterCountySnowZ Posted January 31, 2015 Author Share Posted January 31, 2015 Que? MGJ -- 1.05" SWF -- 1.05" FWN -- 1.10" Yea I meant to edit that, when I click the mouse over I clicked hour 54 lol, everyone sees 1+ even up to AlbanyMy post kinda contradicted the snow map I posted and I realised lol Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
donsutherland1 Posted January 31, 2015 Share Posted January 31, 2015 Don S , NAMs Highest 850 at 0z KNYC 3.1 6z it was 1.3 Do you have the 12z top tick ? +1.0°C Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PB GFI Posted January 31, 2015 Share Posted January 31, 2015 I would like to see how far north the 850 zero gets on 12z Euro. Would like to see back at Toms River like it had it yesterday at 12z , At 0z it took it to Perth Amboy . The NAM seem to see the confluence at 36 - Last night at 48 the SLP was in Indiana , today it was in N Kentucky . Those 50 - 75 mile jogs are going to matter . Another 50 mile jog and you lock the city in totally . Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PB GFI Posted January 31, 2015 Share Posted January 31, 2015 +1.0°C Yeh I saw .7 - but 3 colder runs in a row , works for me Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
rgwp96 Posted January 31, 2015 Share Posted January 31, 2015 So the mixing will be more sleet or freezing rain? sleet Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
doncat Posted January 31, 2015 Share Posted January 31, 2015 Nam also has us near zero by Tuesday morning...will be fascinating watching this all play out. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
UlsterCountySnowZ Posted January 31, 2015 Author Share Posted January 31, 2015 850s hr 51 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jersey Shore snow Posted January 31, 2015 Share Posted January 31, 2015 There is going to be a long period of sleet from NYC, through the I-78 corridor down to New Brunswick area. Good thing the warm layer is shallow enough to prevent freezing rain. Models probably underestimating cold at the surface. Could be a lot of sleet obs at 24 and 25 degrees Monday morning in these areas Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Kaner587 Posted January 31, 2015 Share Posted January 31, 2015 Nam is -3 for nyc Tuesday morning. It will probably be wrong by about 5 degrees we get close but no zero or below zero IMO Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
danstorm Posted January 31, 2015 Share Posted January 31, 2015 Yeh I saw .7 - but 3 colder runs in a row , works for me 850 isn't the only level we need to care about. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
UlsterCountySnowZ Posted January 31, 2015 Author Share Posted January 31, 2015 850 isn't the only level we need to care about. 500-700 for me is the most important, it's where snow growth occurs Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WintersGrasp Posted January 31, 2015 Share Posted January 31, 2015 Around the same point, the RGEM 00z had the mix line around Atlantic City. The 12 has it around Staten Island.....Brings it north after that.....Starting to go with the rest of guidance : Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
UlsterCountySnowZ Posted January 31, 2015 Author Share Posted January 31, 2015 Hr 42 500-1000 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snywx Posted January 31, 2015 Share Posted January 31, 2015 12z RGEM @ 48.. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
stlirish Posted January 31, 2015 Share Posted January 31, 2015 What does the sounding look like? Where are the warm noses showing up? Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PB GFI Posted January 31, 2015 Share Posted January 31, 2015 850 isn't the only level we need to care about.Every other layer is cold DANOur problem is once the 850 low is in CPA we have to flip. For a while Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
UlsterCountySnowZ Posted January 31, 2015 Author Share Posted January 31, 2015 4k nam is further south, continues to keep nyc north all snow, north shore long island mixes but it's brief Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Kaner587 Posted January 31, 2015 Share Posted January 31, 2015 Around the same point, the RGEM 00z had the mix line around Atlantic City. The 12 has it around Staten Island.....Brings it north after that.....Starting to go with the rest of guidance : Lol that's intereting given that it only goes out to 48. 48 hrs from 00z is 00z Monday. That time stamp is 12z Monday. Only a 12 hr difference no biggie Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Kaner587 Posted January 31, 2015 Share Posted January 31, 2015 Rgem is 15mm all snow through 48 for nyc per meteograms Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WintersGrasp Posted January 31, 2015 Share Posted January 31, 2015 Lol that's intereting given that it only goes out to 48. 48 hrs from 00z is 00z Monday. That time stamp is 12z Monday. Only a 12 hr difference no biggie You're right. The comparison image that I looked at was where the GGEM continues from the RGEM on the site, so it lumps it together out to 120hrs lower resolution beyond 48. But the frames before that seemed to match the natural progression of the shift north with the mix/rain line Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
UlsterCountySnowZ Posted January 31, 2015 Author Share Posted January 31, 2015 GFS is initialising, I'll do PBP if u guys don't mind, unless someone else wants it Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Kaner587 Posted January 31, 2015 Share Posted January 31, 2015 You're right. The comparison image that I looked at was where the GGEM continues from the RGEM on the site, so it lumps it together out to 120hrs lower resolution beyond 48. But the frames before that seemed to match the natural progression of the shift north with the mix/rain line I agree that at this point all the guidance is within 25 miles of each other essentially. But when nyc is the dividing line even 10 miles is huge! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weatherfreeeeak Posted January 31, 2015 Share Posted January 31, 2015 GFS is initialising, I'll do PBP if u guys don't mind, unless someone else wants itAll yours Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RU848789 Posted January 31, 2015 Share Posted January 31, 2015 As I've said a few times before, with regard to impact on travel, shoveling, etc., mass of frozen precip is all that matters. So, even if we only get a few inches of snow, but then get a lot of sleet on top of that and even rain, freezing or not, which will simply be absorbed by the snow/sleet, it's the same mass of frozen precip at the end of the day. Sure, all snow is prettier and will get more attention, but I've always felt frozen mass is a far better way of comparing storms. I also think that some of the models are overdoing it with the northward progression of warm air and that the Euro has it right in that we'll get mostly snow, like 6-10" in the Edison area (my opinion is based on what a few folks here and elsewhere have sai, plus decades of observation on systems like this where models seem to underestimate the strength of the cold air - like a couple last March and Feb 2010, if I recall correctly - the one with the insane gradient from 0" in NYC to 2 feet in Philly) Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted January 31, 2015 Share Posted January 31, 2015 I wouldn't worry too much about freezing rain unless the 925mb freezing line comes further North. For freezing rain you really need the BL to be the only layer below freezing. In this case the BL stays cold because of the strong CAD but the mid-level lows stay far enough to the South that I believe any mixing would be sleet unless you were just North of the rain line. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
danstorm Posted January 31, 2015 Share Posted January 31, 2015 Every other layer is cold DAN Our problem is once the 850 low is in CPA we have to flip. For a while You say things with such conviction.., chill with the guaranteesthink probabilistically. I'm not saying we don't snow a lot here, perhaps 3-5" in 3 hours stuff with the crazy frontogenic forcing. But the mix line usually sets up north of the 850 0c...how many times do we see sneaky warmth bust a forecast? And no, heavy rates overcoming mid level warmth is the exception, not the rule. 5-8 would be my first call for nyc, but fragile setup. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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