phil882 Posted January 31, 2015 Share Posted January 31, 2015 Haha if this keeps going further north, we may even have to worry about mixing issues this far north (Albany)! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
donsutherland1 Posted January 31, 2015 Share Posted January 31, 2015 For purposes of perspective, below are Bufkit figures from the 18z GFS (maximum temperature in profile algorithm): Bridgeport: 6.9" Islip: 3.4" New York City: ...JFK: 3.6" ...LGA: 3.8" Newark: 5.3" Poughkeepsie: 9.1" White Plains: 9.3" Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
UlsterCountySnowZ Posted January 31, 2015 Author Share Posted January 31, 2015 For purposes of perspective, below are Bufkit figures from the 18z GFS (maximum temperature in profile algorithm): Bridgeport: 6.9" Islip: 3.4" New York City: ...JFK: 3.6" ...LGA: 3.8" Newark: 5.3" Poughkeepsie: 9.1" White Plains: 9.3" White plains higher than Poughkeepsie? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
donsutherland1 Posted January 31, 2015 Share Posted January 31, 2015 Unless there is an actual frontal passage (i.e. the surface feature passes to the north of the station and the wind shifts into the sw)...I'm not sure how the 2m temp gets close to 40 F with a NE wind. Its not plausible. In terms of surface temperatures, I have my doubts, as well. I'm more concerned about the mid-levels where there is warming aloft. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ineedsnow Posted January 31, 2015 Share Posted January 31, 2015 i got screwed during the blizzard here im hoping this one hits good and seems like it might i still got a good amount of snow otg though Until last Monday's storm...all of SNE was terribly overdue for snow. West of a line from Hartford down to New Haven...they are still running big time negative snow anomalies...Nature evens things out over the course of time. Remember, many parts of SNE average twice as much snow as the NYC area...and some of the higher spots in the Berkshires & Litchfield Hills average three and four times as much. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Guest Pamela Posted January 31, 2015 Share Posted January 31, 2015 In terms of surface temperatures, I have my doubts, as well. I'm more concerned about the mid-levels where there is warming aloft. The global model is not one of the more reliable repositories for 2m temperatures...5 degree (F) errors (either way) are not uncommon. I always cite those silly text printouts as an example of the problems in this area. Invariably, the GFS with print out wx conditions of "snow" at JFK while concurrently printing out "rain" at Bridgeport. Does such a circumstance ever occur in real life? Yes, but only every blue moon... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
UlsterCountySnowZ Posted January 31, 2015 Author Share Posted January 31, 2015 The global model is not one of the more reliable repositories for 2m temperatures...5 degree errors (either way) are not uncommon. I always cite those silly text printouts as an example of the problems in this area. Invariably, the GFS with print out wx conditions of "snow" at JFK while concurrently printing out "rain" at Bridgeport. Does such a circumstance ever occur in real life? Yes, but only every blue moon... You guys keep breaking out in these long discussions about random topics...this is a model thread for the storm MondayNE seasonal snow average has nothing to do with this thread Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LongBeachSurfFreak Posted January 31, 2015 Share Posted January 31, 2015 Unless there is an actual frontal passage (i.e. the surface feature passes to the north of the station and the wind shifts into the sw)...I'ot sure how the 2m temp gets close to 40 F with a NE wind. Its not plausible. You're absolutely 100000000% correct !!! No way can that happen. Now if the coastal front moves through and shifts winds to SE sure! I remember back in feb 07 winds In long beach stayed NE and we had freezing rain and never cracked freezing . Further east winds did switch to SE and there it rained Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Guest Pamela Posted January 31, 2015 Share Posted January 31, 2015 In terms of surface temperatures, I have my doubts, as well. I'm more concerned about the mid-levels where there is warming aloft. Don, I think like any other storm...you have to go with climatology here. Before the event last Monday, I wrote that traditionally, those types of events tend to put the heaviest amounts off to the north & east and the lesser amounts as one moves southwestward...which was exactly what took place. This one is obviously materially different synoptically...but referencing the past may prove helpful. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
donsutherland1 Posted January 31, 2015 Share Posted January 31, 2015 White plains higher than Poughkeepsie? I just checked. It was. This appeared a little surprising, but it has to do with higher qpf (HPN: 1.45" ; POU: 0.87") Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
UlsterCountySnowZ Posted January 31, 2015 Author Share Posted January 31, 2015 I just checked. It was. This appeared a little surprising, but it has to do with higher qpf (HPN: 1.45" ; POU: 0.87") Gotcha thanks Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnowGoose69 Posted January 31, 2015 Share Posted January 31, 2015 The wind direction is fickle too on the latest models that have warmed, some have JFK going SE and some do not, and even the ones that do not think they're going to 40 degrees. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
donsutherland1 Posted January 31, 2015 Share Posted January 31, 2015 The global model is not one of the more reliable repositories for 2m temperatures...5 degree (F) errors (either way) are not uncommon. I always cite those silly text printouts as an example of the problems in this area. Invariably, the GFS with print out wx conditions of "snow" at JFK while concurrently printing out "rain" at Bridgeport. Does such a circumstance ever occur in real life? Yes, but only every blue moon... I don't disagree. That's why my starting point is 3"-6" in and around the city including adjacent suburbs. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Guest Pamela Posted January 31, 2015 Share Posted January 31, 2015 The wind direction is fickle too on the latest models that have warmed, some have JFK going SE and some do not, and even the ones that do not think they're going to 40 degrees. Well a wind shift can only really take place if there is a warm frontal passage...I mean there might be some sort of weird exception if a bit of a coastal front forms...they might be a little more common around Boston than here...resulting from protracted easterly flow as storms approach from the SW. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnowGoose69 Posted January 31, 2015 Share Posted January 31, 2015 Its always a pain to guess snow for NYC in these events because the start time and banding issues. Usually its 2-4, sometimes its 3-5, 6 is about the upper end and in this event it appears to me the WAA is just going to be too strong for them to reach 6. I would say the biggest window for snow they can get is 03-11Z and probably only 06z onward are you looking at anything more than light. This does not come off to me as an event where the snow would move in unexpectedly early because the high is not positioned correctly, that usually occurs when the high is over Maine or SE Canada or even off the New England coast. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
rgwp96 Posted January 31, 2015 Share Posted January 31, 2015 euro looking to go down again. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Guest Pamela Posted January 31, 2015 Share Posted January 31, 2015 Its always a pain to guess snow for NYC in these events because the start time and banding issues. Usually its 2-4, sometimes its 3-5, 6 is about the upper end and in this event it appears to me the WAA is just going to be too strong for them to reach 6. I would say the biggest window for snow they can get is 03-11Z and probably only 06z onward are you looking at anything more than light. This does not come off to me as an event where the snow would move in unexpectedly early because the high is not positioned correctly, that usually occurs when the high is over Maine or SE Canada or even off the New England coast. But the anticyclone is nicely stretched across eastern Canada in such a way that any retreat would be minimal...consequently, models forecasting huge surges of warmth up towards CT & northern NJ may be a little overdone, when push comes to shove. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
stlirish Posted February 1, 2015 Share Posted February 1, 2015 But the anticyclone is nicely stretched across eastern Canada in such a way that any retreat would be minimal...consequently, models forecasting huge surges of warmth up towards CT & northern NJ may be a little overdone, when push comes to shove. I'm in this camp, Pam and have been for 2 days. Something is "off" with this particular warm push progged on most of the models. We will see what happens. Always fascinating. Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Mophstymeo Posted February 1, 2015 Share Posted February 1, 2015 I'm in this camp, Pam and have been for 2 days. Something is "off" with this particular warm push progged on most of the models. We will see what happens. Always fascinating.Sent from my iPhone Perhaps, then why would so many of the models "see" this? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnoSki14 Posted February 1, 2015 Share Posted February 1, 2015 Will the gfs be the new Euro? The upgrades have worked thus far. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Animal Posted February 1, 2015 Share Posted February 1, 2015 euro looking to go down again. reality is that the euro has busted bad in every event in my backyard this season. Assume the srefs or what ever they are called suck in the next 1 hours 20 minutes. I am concerned about a snow to ice event. Temp is 11 F Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Guest Pamela Posted February 1, 2015 Share Posted February 1, 2015 I'm in this camp, Pam and have been for 2 days. Something is "off" with this particular warm push progged on most of the models. We will see what happens. Always fascinating. Sent from my iPhone See these so called "SWFE" usually have an anticyclone parked over New England as they approach from the west. The anticyclone is steadily moving off to the northeast or east...and consequently, any cold air is quickly eroded...and snow yields around here are usually minimal...all you can get is what falls before the High sufficiently loses its influence while moisture overruns the cold air at the surface. This situation is materially different. You have arctic air all across eastern Canada and Low pressure sitting over Labrador. This cold air is most assuredly not retreating...it may be giving a bit...but just a bit. Thus I am confounded by these models treating this like a quick snow to rain event. Moreover, you throw in the fact that we are now going into February...when the general storm track is at its most suppressed...and things don't seem quite as they are being painted this evening. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnowGoose69 Posted February 1, 2015 Share Posted February 1, 2015 Will the gfs be the new Euro? The upgrades have worked thus far. I think the last event was a fluke and the GFS did not do as well as many people think, it badly busted over in SNE. That setup was crazy complicated and the models had a harder time with it. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NJCowboy Posted February 1, 2015 Share Posted February 1, 2015 See these so called "SWFE" usually have an anticyclone parked over New England as they approach from the west. The anticyclone is steadily moving off to the northeast or east...and consequently, any cold air is quickly eroded...and snow yields around here are usually minimal...all you can get is what falls before the High sufficiently loses its influence while moisture overruns the cold air at the surface. This situation is materially different. You have arctic air all across eastern Canada and Low pressure sitting over Labrador. This cold air is most assuredly not retreating...it may be giving a bit...but just a bit. Thus I am confounded by these models treating this like a quick snow to rain event. Moreover, you throw in the fact that we are now going into February...when the general storm track is at its most suppressed...and things don't seem quite as they are being painted this evening. Precisely. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
sferic Posted February 1, 2015 Share Posted February 1, 2015 Excuse me, what is SWFE? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Mophstymeo Posted February 1, 2015 Share Posted February 1, 2015 I think the last event was a fluke and the GFS did not do as well as many people think, it badly busted over in SNE. That setup was crazy complicated and the models had a harder time with it. The Euro "saw" the blizzard but got its placement wrong. The GFS got the placement right but "saw" a minor snow event. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NJCowboy Posted February 1, 2015 Share Posted February 1, 2015 Excuse me, what is SWFE? SangWiches For Everyone. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnowWisher Posted February 1, 2015 Share Posted February 1, 2015 Excuse me, what is SWFE? Southwest Flow Event. Best defined by a good man in the NE Thread "ORH_wxman" Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Guest Pamela Posted February 1, 2015 Share Posted February 1, 2015 Excuse me, what is SWFE? Truth be told, I did not recognize the term until a few years ago...I don't know its origin...but I believe it means SW Flow event. I use it very rarely; though I did made an exception here. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Allsnow Posted February 1, 2015 Share Posted February 1, 2015 Excuse me, what is SWFE? South west flow event Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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