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Post super bowl storm Model discussion


UlsterCountySnowZ

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The GFS is not that bad of a run

It's not a disaster, to be sure. NYC would still get a moderate snowfall and the northern and western suburbs (NW NJ, Dutchess, Rockland, and Orange Counties) should do quite well. There, even with the current run, 8" or more looks likely with some amounts possibly approaching or reaching a foot.

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It's not a disaster, to be sure. NYC would still get a moderate snowfall and the northern and western suburbs (NW NJ, Dutchess, Rockland, and Orange Counties) should do quite well. There, even with the current run, 8" or more looks likely with some amounts possibly approaching or reaching a foot.

it is certainly better for NYC in terms of snow than the NAM.   I think it has been obvious for a little while now that the front end thump is the key here, and the GFS keeps that for you guys

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It's not a disaster, to be sure. NYC would still get a moderate snowfall and the northern and western suburbs (NW NJ, Dutchess, Rockland, and Orange Counties) should do quite well. There, even with the current run, 8" or more looks likely with some amounts possibly approaching or reaching a foot.

Same for northern westchester?

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The 18z GFS basically kills the idea of a significant snowfall for the immediate NYC area. The PNA- is probably the teleconnection most out of line with significant snowfalls during the first half of February. For perspective, 50% of NYC's 3"-6" snowfalls during the first half of February occurred with a PNA-. In contrast, 31% of the City's 8" or greater snowfalls during that same timeframe occurred with a PNA-.

The Euro has been colder than the GFS on this storm, so I wouldn't worry too much about the 18z GFS. Also, I consider 3-6" a "significant snowfall" for NYC since the area only averages 20-25" of snowfall per season. The obvious trend is towards more of a mixed precipitation event, but I don't think that precludes Central Park and its environs from picking up a decent-sized snowstorm.

 

According to the 18z GFS, NYC's 2m temperature is shown at +3.1°C on Monday 18z.

GFS surface temps are trash and don't take into account CAD very well. You're much better off using the Euro or NAM for 2m temps.

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well i still have a 9 inch snowpack up here and i doubt ill see bare ground other then streets and sidewalks for a while,plus i expect the models will correct themselves a bit south.the cold air and fresh high pressure are currently moving se from the canadian border and starting to string the moisture east.we should all be rooting for a strong high pressure to the north to lock in the cold as the low arrives and make the low transfer to the coast perhaps save us from much rain or mixing. :whistle:

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Don I couldn't believe what I read just now from you. Early afternoon in the Philly forum yesterday I touted the -NAO/-AO/+PNA pattern as evidence that it couldn't come further north. Literally I said the PNA is forecast to spike. Sure enough I peek today and it's been scraping the bottom of the predicted range since I made that comment. In fact it might be verifying below the lower forecast bound. I suppose more of the energy coming out from Mexico meant the remaining energy was insufficient to pump up the west coast ridge.

 

The PNA- is also bad for Philly. Just 8% of 8" or greater snowstorms and 14% of 6" or greater snowstorms during the 2/1-15 period occurred when the PNA was negative.

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18Z RGEM similar to 18Z GFS.

850's and Sfc 0C pretty much just south of NJ/NY border at 12Z Monday

 

Trends today have not been positive and Euro seems to be cold outlier at this point.

 

IMO RGEM is pretty good  model and better than the NAM for short term guidance and

that is what we are coming into at this point.  Short term.  If RGEM and GFS are similar

at 00Z then it seems like most in the forum are going to mix or change to at a minimum sleet

and south of 78 just plain rain.  Freezing rain/ice accumulation would be reserved for a slice of

NJ between RT80 and the NJ/NY border.

 

To ignore the trends today is foolish.

 

This is not to say there is not some snow accumulation with the initial WAA, but I thing it is less

than 6" for most of NNJ south of RT 80.

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The Euro has been colder than the GFS on this storm, so I wouldn't worry too much about the 18z GFS. Also, I consider 3-6" a "significant snowfall" for NYC since the area only averages 20-25" of snowfall per season. The obvious trend is towards more of a mixed precipitation event, but I don't think that precludes Central Park and its environs from picking up a decent-sized snowstorm.

 

GFS surface temps are trash and don't take into account CAD very well. You're much better off using the Euro or NAM for 2m temps.

I agree that the higher resolution models do a better job with surface temperatures. The trend is what matters right now.

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18Z RGEM similar to 18Z GFS.

850's and Sfc 0C pretty much just south of NJ/NY border at 12Z Monday

 

Trends today have not been positive and Euro seems to be cold outlier at this point.

 

IMO RGEM is pretty good  model and better than the NAM for short term guidance and

that is what we are coming into at this point.  Short term.  If RGEM and GFS are similar

at 00Z then it seems like most in the forum are going to mix or change to at a minimum sleet

and south of 78 just plain rain.  Freezing rain/ice accumulation would be reserved for a slice of

NJ between RT80 and the NJ/NY border.

 

To ignore the trends today is foolish.

 

This is not to say there is not some snow accumulation with the initial WAA, but I thing it is less

than 6" for most of NNJ south of RT 80.

 

 

6 inches is still a decent event. Our average snowfal is noted for this reason.

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This storm doesn't really pull into here until Monday morning, still plenty of time for adjustments... Hopefully southward adjustments ;)

It's amazing after cringing at southward adjustments for the past several seasons, we're now begging for one!  LOL.

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Let's also acknowledge the fact that this storm 3 days ago was a DC and southern Jersey storm.. Amazing how far North it's come, and it really hasn't stopped

No it hasn't stopped. At this point, if I were anywhere south of Poughkeepsie I'd be wary.

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According to the 18z GFS, NYC's 2m temperature is shown at +3.1°C on Monday 18z.

 

Unless there is an actual frontal passage (i.e. the surface feature passes to the north of the station and the wind shifts into the sw)...I'm not sure how the 2m temp gets close to 40 F with a NE wind. Its not plausible.

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its just were smart enough to live where it snows  :snowing:

 

Until last Monday's storm...all of SNE was terribly overdue for snow.  West of a line from Hartford down to New Haven...they are still running big time negative snow anomalies...Nature evens things out over the course of time. 

Remember, many parts of SNE average twice as much snow as the NYC area...and some of the higher spots in the Berkshires & Litchfield Hills average three and four times as much.  That's a lot of ground to make up.

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