donsutherland1 Posted January 31, 2015 Share Posted January 31, 2015 Lol, not sure how this is logical. -AO, -NAO, -EPO, -WPO do not support a rain solution. Granted the wildcard as always is the PNA. It is positive right now. Question is does it pulse downward in the next 48 hours and how much can that overcome all the other favorable teleconnectors we have. The PNA is actually negative right now (-0.647). Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
UlsterCountySnowZ Posted January 31, 2015 Author Share Posted January 31, 2015 Amazing, I have never seen the models so bad as they have been this year. Last weeks storm went from miss (Friday night) to hit (saturday morning). Ok, not attacking, just asking, thought I missed something. I wasn't being defensive, didn't mean it to sound like that sorry Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wthrmn654 Posted January 31, 2015 Share Posted January 31, 2015 I'm on long island, it was 9, I have30 inches on ground....I don't buy for instance 40 degrees out simply plain rain....well our2 ago really bad icing occurred from frozen ground...... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted January 31, 2015 Share Posted January 31, 2015 Warnings in Morris County are for 5-10" of snow and a 1/10" of ice. My personal forecast is for 4-6" of snow and up to 1/2" of ice for that area. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
easternsnowman Posted January 31, 2015 Share Posted January 31, 2015 Makes no sense for anyone to follow the nam based on recent performance,especially the 18 nam Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NYC Weather Lover Posted January 31, 2015 Share Posted January 31, 2015 New upton map Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
UlsterCountySnowZ Posted January 31, 2015 Author Share Posted January 31, 2015 I'm gonna be a weenie and hug the GGEM Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
GD0815 Posted January 31, 2015 Share Posted January 31, 2015 Makes no sense for anyone to follow the nam based on recent performance,especially the 18 nam i would like to see someone present proof that 18z models perform worse than other runs, people say it all the time, but i have never seen the data to back it up. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
nyblizz44 Posted January 31, 2015 Share Posted January 31, 2015 New upton map kiss any hope of over foot goodbye Upton is totally buying model runs from today Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
winterwarlock Posted January 31, 2015 Share Posted January 31, 2015 Mt holly beginning to cut back totals on their snow map Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnowGoose69 Posted January 31, 2015 Share Posted January 31, 2015 i would like to see someone present proof that 18z models perform worse than other runs, people say it all the time, but i have never seen the data to back it up. Someone posted it here once, the 18 and 06z RGEMs are really bad they are like the off hour ETA runs from 15 years ago Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WarrenCtyWx Posted January 31, 2015 Share Posted January 31, 2015 i would like to see someone present proof that 18z models perform worse than other runs, people say it all the time, but i have never seen the data to back it up. Didn't the 18z NAM have 40"+ for NYC on Monday before the busted blizzard? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
UnionWeatherWx Posted January 31, 2015 Share Posted January 31, 2015 Ive seen this kind of set up so many times. To many to even count. These are the kind of storms, where COLD AIR struggles to leave. Well atleast for this area. Either way you can't disregard anything. Its funny how we where talking about High Ratios. Lol. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
GD0815 Posted January 31, 2015 Share Posted January 31, 2015 Someone posted it here once, the 18 and 06z RGEMs are really bad they are like the off hour ETA runs from 15 years ago how about for NAM and GFS (which is what I always see people citing to)? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Zelocita Weather Posted January 31, 2015 Share Posted January 31, 2015 Middlesex now in WSW... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Rtd208 Posted January 31, 2015 Share Posted January 31, 2015 Middlesex County NJ is under a WSWatch, 2-5" of snow and up to 0.25" of ice. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WintersGrasp Posted January 31, 2015 Share Posted January 31, 2015 i would like to see someone present proof that 18z models perform worse than other runs, people say it all the time, but i have never seen the data to back it up.I agree. I've seen the 6 and 18z lose events and also catch on to changes just like any other model cycle Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
GD0815 Posted January 31, 2015 Share Posted January 31, 2015 Didn't the 18z NAM have 40"+ for NYC on Monday before the busted blizzard? that isn't proof that the 18z performs worse as a rule. it is an anecdotal example. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Blizzardo Posted January 31, 2015 Share Posted January 31, 2015 I wasn't saying anything yesterday because I didn't feel like donning the flame suit but I knew either the temps or precip was gonna change. Very very difficult to snow below 20 degrees in this area. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WarrenCtyWx Posted January 31, 2015 Share Posted January 31, 2015 that isn't proof that the 18z performs worse as a rule. it is an anecdotal example. Fair enough. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnowGoose69 Posted January 31, 2015 Share Posted January 31, 2015 that isn't proof that the 18z performs worse as a rule. it is an anecdotal example. Someone here may have the link from NCEP but it does show the 06 and 18 runs verify worse, every now and then it gets posted Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Animal Posted January 31, 2015 Share Posted January 31, 2015 Didn't the 18z NAM have 40"+ for NYC on Monday before the busted blizzard? yes and 3 feet for my area. We got a total of 4.5 inches. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Animal Posted January 31, 2015 Share Posted January 31, 2015 Middlesex County NJ is under a WSWatch, 2-5" of snow and up to 0.25" of ice. I thought for sure they would not update anything until tomorrow morning. Hoisted a warning for 8-14 in my area. What could go wrong. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
USCG RS Posted January 31, 2015 Share Posted January 31, 2015 Someone here may have the link from NCEP but it does show the 06 and 18 runs verify worse, every now and then it gets postedIf I recall correctly from my instructors, the 6z and 18z are just the same data as 00z and 12z respectively, run with different parameters, correct? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
GD0815 Posted January 31, 2015 Share Posted January 31, 2015 Someone here may have the link from NCEP but it does show the 06 and 18 runs verify worse, every now and then it gets posted I'd love to see it, if it is true, i will definitely take back what I said, I have just never actually seen proof of it. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ineedsnow Posted January 31, 2015 Share Posted January 31, 2015 this could be part of the reason Look at model trends. If the low pressure moved east with this run, what did it do the run before that? For the GFS, look at a couple days of 00Z and 12Z runs for consistency. Avoid the 06Z and 18Z runs when 00 or 12 is available; in the U.S. these runs don't include the weather balloon network data (balloons are only sent up twice per day), and are therefore radically different and more likely to have bias. Someone posted it here once, the 18 and 06z RGEMs are really bad they are like the off hour ETA runs from 15 years ago Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jm1220 Posted January 31, 2015 Share Posted January 31, 2015 kiss any hope of over foot goodbye Upton is totally buying model runs from todayI think Upton goes with an advisory for the southern half of NYC and LI. Ultimately though I think it'll end up high end advisory criteria for all of NYC-maybe JFK gets 3" and the Bronx 5 or 6". Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NYC Weather Lover Posted January 31, 2015 Share Posted January 31, 2015 Well IMO the potential exists for a potential major icing event across NYC and the north shore of LI, which leads me to believe that they will issue a Winter Storm Warning, as a WSW is defined by "3 inches or more of snow, along with a large accumulation of ice". If the latest model runs are correct, NYC at least may meet the criteria for a winter storm warning. I could see them issuing a warning north of the LIE and advisory south of that for LI. And most of NJ from 78 south could also be in for an advisory. Just my opinion. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Joe4alb Posted January 31, 2015 Share Posted January 31, 2015 that isn't proof that the 18z performs worse as a rule. it is an anecdotal example. http://www.emc.ncep.noaa.gov/gmb/wx24fy/doc/GFS4cycle_GCWMB_briefing_13dec2012_fyang.pdf Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
GD0815 Posted January 31, 2015 Share Posted January 31, 2015 this could be part of the reason Look at model trends. If the low pressure moved east with this run, what did it do the run before that? For the GFS, look at a couple days of 00Z and 12Z runs for consistency. Avoid the 06Z and 18Z runs when 00 or 12 is available; in the U.S. these runs don't include the weather balloon network data (balloons are only sent up twice per day), and are therefore radically different and more likely to have bias. my understanding was that this was once the case, but that in the last 10 years or so as models rely more and more on satellite data that the differences are negligible. anyway, i won't derail the thread with this anymore, I just mention it because I'm not sure dismissing a model because it is 6z or 18z is prudent Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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