winterwx21 Posted January 31, 2015 Share Posted January 31, 2015 Remember when we where talking about high ratios and temps in the teens...lol. It's amazing how quickly things change, but it just shows how bad the models still are. It's 2015, and for many winter storms we still don't know what's gonna happen until 24 hours or less before the storm. You'd think with today's technology, models would be better. It's amazing here that we're going from super high ratio snow with temps in the teens, to possibly a mostly rain storm in such a short period of time. Pretty disgusting. I hope this north trend reverses tonight. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bluewave Posted January 31, 2015 Share Posted January 31, 2015 Remember when we where talking about high ratios and temps in the teens...lol. Just goes to show how fickle the models have been more than 48 hrs out this winter. But if we were dealing with rain in the warm season, no one would even notice the changes. We may expect more than the models are able to currently deliver for snow details beyond the short term. But we are still doing better than the 70's and 80's. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnowWisher Posted January 31, 2015 Share Posted January 31, 2015 This was the warmest the Euro got at 850 and 925 per 12z Euro.. Note this again continued the trend north as compared to 00z and prior 12z run.. 1/31 12z run. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
GD0815 Posted January 31, 2015 Share Posted January 31, 2015 Just goes to show how fickle the models have been more than 48 hrs out this winter. But if we were dealing with rain in the warm season, no one would even notice the changes. We may expect more than the models are able to currently deliver for snow details beyond the short term. this is a great point, we just notice it more because such small differences end up changing the forecast dramatically. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted January 31, 2015 Share Posted January 31, 2015 NYC isn't out of the woods for ice either, LI is mostly rain but the immediate NW burbs and points North and West are under the gun until you hit Northern Orange County. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
atownwxwatcher Posted January 31, 2015 Share Posted January 31, 2015 NAM shows the precipitation dying as it heads west to east.. I do not think this is going to be the case. Its the NAM. Would not worry about it! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
USCG RS Posted January 31, 2015 Share Posted January 31, 2015 NYC isn't out of the woods for ice either, LI is mostly rain but the immediate NW burbs and points North and West are under the gun until you hit Northern Orange County.Nam always has one very over amped run this close in. I'd venture to say this is that run. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnowWisher Posted January 31, 2015 Share Posted January 31, 2015 This was the warmest the Euro got at 850 and 925 per 12z Euro.. Note this again continued the trend north as compared to 00z and prior 12z run.. 1/31 12z run. image.jpg 1/31 00z run same time frame 18z on Monday Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnoSki14 Posted January 31, 2015 Share Posted January 31, 2015 Luckily the low isn't weaker or icing would've been a bigger concern. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Zelocita Weather Posted January 31, 2015 Share Posted January 31, 2015 This was the warmest the Euro got at 850 and 925 per 12z Euro.. Note this again continued the trend north as compared to 00z and prior 12z run.. 1/31 12z run. image.jpg The euro has all levels cold up to rt.78 and the surface never above 32 down into ocean county??? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
UlsterCountySnowZ Posted January 31, 2015 Author Share Posted January 31, 2015 Winter storm warning issued for my area 10-14... Directly after worst nam run yet lmao Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnowWisher Posted January 31, 2015 Share Posted January 31, 2015 1/31 00z run same time frame 18z on Monday image.jpg And finally the prior 12z run on 12/30. Same time frame. 18z Monday Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
UlsterCountySnowZ Posted January 31, 2015 Author Share Posted January 31, 2015 Btw 4k nam has initial WAA much stronger and further south than the 18z nam Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted January 31, 2015 Share Posted January 31, 2015 Luckily the low isn't weaker or icing would've been a bigger concern. Again, maybe for your own backyard, not all. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted January 31, 2015 Share Posted January 31, 2015 Upton only issued warnings for Northern zones. Southern counties remain under the watch. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
UlsterCountySnowZ Posted January 31, 2015 Author Share Posted January 31, 2015 4k nam is way south, this models all over the place Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
nycsnow Posted January 31, 2015 Share Posted January 31, 2015 High ratio snow to 40s and rain you can't make this up Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
UlsterCountySnowZ Posted January 31, 2015 Author Share Posted January 31, 2015 4k Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted January 31, 2015 Share Posted January 31, 2015 The 4k NAM is even more worthless than the 12k version. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Blizz Posted January 31, 2015 Share Posted January 31, 2015 4k Doesnt look further south to me ... Regular NAM same look Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
UlsterCountySnowZ Posted January 31, 2015 Author Share Posted January 31, 2015 The 4k NAM is even more worthless than the 12k version. Weren't u defending the nam 8 hrs ago.. I'm not saying it's gospel just posting for those interested Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Joe4alb Posted January 31, 2015 Share Posted January 31, 2015 way south? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted January 31, 2015 Share Posted January 31, 2015 Weren't u defending the nam 8 hrs ago.. I'm not saying it's gospel just posting for those interested I don't support or defend any model. I don't toss a model just because it gives me rain. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
allgame830 Posted January 31, 2015 Share Posted January 31, 2015 Wow my warning is for 5-10 inches with up to .25 of ice... That is not a good situation!! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Zelocita Weather Posted January 31, 2015 Share Posted January 31, 2015 Morris, Sussex, warren also in warnings... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
UlsterCountySnowZ Posted January 31, 2015 Author Share Posted January 31, 2015 way south? read my earlier post I was referring to the intial WAA not the low Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnoSki14 Posted January 31, 2015 Share Posted January 31, 2015 High ratio snow to 40s and rain you can't make this up People were calling for suppression and a DC south storm a couple days ago. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
UlsterCountySnowZ Posted January 31, 2015 Author Share Posted January 31, 2015 12k nam had the intial WAA passing through Albany, 4k nam has the intial WAA pass south of that over LHV, NNJ , NEPA I should have clearified better, the mix line is The same Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Joe4alb Posted January 31, 2015 Share Posted January 31, 2015 People were calling for suppression and a DC south storm a couple days ago. Amazing, I have never seen the models so bad as they have been this year. Last weeks storm went from miss (Friday night Euro was first to sniff it out on 0z Saturday run) to hit (saturday morning). If you guys read my earlier post I was referring to the intial WAA not the low Ok, not attacking, just asking, thought I missed something. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted January 31, 2015 Share Posted January 31, 2015 12F at SWF and 28F at MMU With 850's torching well into the LHV Can you say ice? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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