rgwp96 Posted January 31, 2015 Share Posted January 31, 2015 historic ice storm according to the nam lol Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Zir0b Posted January 31, 2015 Share Posted January 31, 2015 this has turned into a typical SWFE...kudos to Forky for calling this unless we see some major changes at 0z. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted January 31, 2015 Share Posted January 31, 2015 The surface would be in the low to mid 20's with heavy rain, yikes. That's from MMU North. City is right at 32. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
UlsterCountySnowZ Posted January 31, 2015 Author Share Posted January 31, 2015 I'm not tossing the nams location but that initial WWA was wayyyy weaker than any previous model or nam run Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnoSki14 Posted January 31, 2015 Share Posted January 31, 2015 Crippiling ice storm almost area wide with surface very cold and 850's warm Not really the surface is warming pretty quickly looks more like plain rain. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Allsnow Posted January 31, 2015 Share Posted January 31, 2015 The trend north has not stopped and the gfs is leading the way. Front end is non existent this run...the worse possible outcome. Good thing it's the nam Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted January 31, 2015 Share Posted January 31, 2015 The CAD is only good if the WAA is weak enough. Initially that's the case but then as the low moves East the flood gates open. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
GD0815 Posted January 31, 2015 Share Posted January 31, 2015 I'm not tossing the nams location but that initial WWA was wayyyy weaker than any previous model or nam run if the WWA is weak, the storm will bust in terms of snowfall Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
middlesea Posted January 31, 2015 Share Posted January 31, 2015 Yikes!!! .25 ice accretion? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
rgwp96 Posted January 31, 2015 Share Posted January 31, 2015 Not really the surface is warming pretty quickly looks more like plain rain. not for nw areas Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Keith O Posted January 31, 2015 Share Posted January 31, 2015 Love how everyone lives and dies by every model run and the latest run is always the correct run. NAM has snow/ice line moving 75 to 100 miles North in one run 6 hour run and suddenly this is the final solution. Guess if I was working for PHL/NYC NWS and issuing my afternoon forecast I would change the WSW's to Ice Storm Warnings. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted January 31, 2015 Share Posted January 31, 2015 Not really the surface is warming pretty quickly looks more like plain rain.Maybe for you. At 15z Monday the 20F isotherm is over Sussex County. All of Orange County is in this teens with 850's above freezing. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnoSki14 Posted January 31, 2015 Share Posted January 31, 2015 not for nw areas Still trending though. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
UlsterCountySnowZ Posted January 31, 2015 Author Share Posted January 31, 2015 It terms of qpf output it's really not that much different, the problem is the mix line Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bluewave Posted January 31, 2015 Share Posted January 31, 2015 The trend north has not stopped and the gfs is leading the way. Front end is non existent this run...the worse possible outcome. Good thing it's the nam The NAM max northern position of the surface freeze line jumped from Sandy Hook at 12z to the Bronx 18z. Big move in the direction of the milder guidance. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted January 31, 2015 Share Posted January 31, 2015 This is extremely ominous because the surface stays so cold. Temps in the teens with heavy rain. Total disaster. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnoSki14 Posted January 31, 2015 Share Posted January 31, 2015 Maybe for you. At 15z Monday the 20F isotherm is over Sussex County. All of Orange County is in this teens with 850's above freezing. Most of the tristate is raining though. Sure NW areas will probably stay cold but still good chance of mixing up there. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
GD0815 Posted January 31, 2015 Share Posted January 31, 2015 Love how everyone lives and dies by every model run and the latest run is always the correct run. NAM has snow/ice line moving 75 to 100 miles North in one run 6 hour run and suddenly this is the final solution. Guess if I was working for PHL/NYC NWS and issuing my afternoon forecast I would change the WSW's to Ice Storm Warnings. i don't think this analysis is fair, there has been a definite trend bringing this north and warmer on every model in the last 24 hours. The NAM (which is now in a decent range) is supporting that. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted January 31, 2015 Share Posted January 31, 2015 Still trending though.The surface freezing line has stayed the same. It runs right along Rt 78 and then towards the GWB. 20F difference between SWF and NYC. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Allsnow Posted January 31, 2015 Share Posted January 31, 2015 The NAM max northern position of the surface freeze line jumped from Sandy Hook at 12z to the Bronx 18z. Big move in the direction of the milder guidance. Remember when we where talking about high ratios and temps in the teens...lol. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snywx Posted January 31, 2015 Share Posted January 31, 2015 This is not a good run even for the NW burbs, Albany region makes out on this run.. hr 45 has the snow/mix line right along I-84 w/ surface temps in the mid-teens. Taken verbatim its still an impressive snowfall for those in the interior that are north of 84 ( which many of us are). Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted January 31, 2015 Share Posted January 31, 2015 Most of the tristate is raining though. Sure NW areas will probably stay cold but still good chance of mixing up there.It's freezing rain for anyone NW of the GSP. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Zir0b Posted January 31, 2015 Share Posted January 31, 2015 This is extremely ominous because the surface stays so cold. Temps in the teens with heavy rain. Total disaster. Looks very bad for your area, but NYC should fine. NAM has screaming SE winds into NYC and actually get the southern shore of the boroughs/LI up to 40F. Very rare to get significant ice into the coastal plain. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
GD0815 Posted January 31, 2015 Share Posted January 31, 2015 Maybe for you. At 15z Monday the 20F isotherm is over Sussex County. All of Orange County is in this teens with 850's above freezing. yeah, for you guys this is definitely where you want to make a distinction about the area you are talking about. The city/LI and N and W are in a very different situation if the NAM were to verify. This would be a crippling ice storm for a lot of Orange County Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
stlirish Posted January 31, 2015 Share Posted January 31, 2015 What a cluster **** these run to run models are. Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
GD0815 Posted January 31, 2015 Share Posted January 31, 2015 Looks very bad for your area, but NYC should fine. NAM has screaming SE winds into NYC and actually get the southern shore of the boroughs/LI up to 40F. Very rare to get significant ice into the coastal plain. agreed for the most part, although some northern parts of the city especially might have some significant ice issues if the NAM were to verify Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ILoveWinter Posted January 31, 2015 Share Posted January 31, 2015 Such a volatile model, should be added to the Vix Index. Not saying its wrong, just a bit schizo. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
UlsterCountySnowZ Posted January 31, 2015 Author Share Posted January 31, 2015 hr 45 has the snow/mix line right along I-84 w/ surface temps in the mid-teens. Taken verbatim its still an impressive snowfall for those in the interior that are north of 84 ( which many of us are). True qpf output is still 1.0"+ im just nervous as each runs comes further and further Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnoSki14 Posted January 31, 2015 Share Posted January 31, 2015 Sort of a flash freeze scenario as temps plummet into the teens as the low jumps to the coast and starts moving away. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Zelocita Weather Posted January 31, 2015 Share Posted January 31, 2015 State college, Boston, Binghamton went warnings...awaiting Uptons decision... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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