UlsterCountySnowZ Posted January 31, 2015 Author Share Posted January 31, 2015 Can we clarify what is coming North please? SLP? Precip shield? 850s? Surface freezing line? Hasn't even made it into PA yet just based off northern and southern precip shields Sent from my iPhone Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
GD0815 Posted January 31, 2015 Share Posted January 31, 2015 Can we clarify what is coming North please? SLP? Precip shield? 850s? Surface freezing line? Sent from my iPhone probably let it play out for a few minutes and im sure you will have your answers. The SLP looks a touch north right now, but it is hard to tell on my phone and we'll know soon enough Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
UlsterCountySnowZ Posted January 31, 2015 Author Share Posted January 31, 2015 Hr 18 light snow into western PA Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
UlsterCountySnowZ Posted January 31, 2015 Author Share Posted January 31, 2015 Hr 21 snow line Barely moves in western PA, gonna be a slower run Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
UlsterCountySnowZ Posted January 31, 2015 Author Share Posted January 31, 2015 Lows about 100 miles west from where it was at 00z, much slower so far Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted January 31, 2015 Share Posted January 31, 2015 Everything is slowing down today thanks to the flow being more amped up. Should be snowing hard for Monday morning commute. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
stlirish Posted January 31, 2015 Share Posted January 31, 2015 Lows about 100 miles west from where it was at 00z, much slower so far It's running into a brick wall. This makes more sense. Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
GD0815 Posted January 31, 2015 Share Posted January 31, 2015 Lows about 100 miles west from where it was at 00z, much slower so far yeah, slower not so great for a lot of us. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted January 31, 2015 Share Posted January 31, 2015 DT has nyc in the 8 inch range Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
USCG RS Posted January 31, 2015 Share Posted January 31, 2015 It's running into a brick wall. This makes more sense. Sent from my iPhone Yes. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
GD0815 Posted January 31, 2015 Share Posted January 31, 2015 DT has nyc in the 8 inch range try to keep this in the vendor thread, just makes things easier to follow, thanks Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dbc Posted January 31, 2015 Share Posted January 31, 2015 I don't see why this wouldn't keep ticking north at this point and there's plenty more time to do so. I say it's mostly rain south of 78 and the Gfs will end up being correct. I'll feel even more confident about this if the next two runs of the gfs continue to tick north and warmer. The danger of flooding will be real if the warm trend continues as it'll start impacting areas that had 2'+ of snow. Lol, not sure how this is logical. -AO, -NAO, -EPO, -WPO do not support a rain solution. Granted the wildcard as always is the PNA. It is positive right now. Question is does it pulse downward in the next 48 hours and how much can that overcome all the other favorable teleconnectors we have. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
UlsterCountySnowZ Posted January 31, 2015 Author Share Posted January 31, 2015 Eastern precip shield is much less organised so far, seems drier Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
stlirish Posted January 31, 2015 Share Posted January 31, 2015 Eastern precip shield is much less organised so far, seems drier Makes sense. Confluence is gonna squeeze the **** out of this thing. That helps us IMO.Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Rjay Posted January 31, 2015 Share Posted January 31, 2015 But the Euro came in warmer 12z today than 0z Saturday and the Friday 12z. I'm done looking at storm details more than 48 hrs out this season. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
UlsterCountySnowZ Posted January 31, 2015 Author Share Posted January 31, 2015 Hr 27 seems to have caught itself up, looks identical now to where it was at hr 33 12z, a tad slower maybe 30-50 miles west Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
USCG RS Posted January 31, 2015 Share Posted January 31, 2015 Lol, not sure how this is logical. -AO, -NAO, -EPO, -WPO do not support a rain solution. Granted the wildcard as always is the PNA. It is positive right now. Question is does it pulse downward in the next 48 hours and how much can that overcome all the other favorable teleconnectors we have.I've been saying this for the past several days. I see the room for this to translate South, but not North. Overcoming these global patterns is pretty hard for a s/w to do. In fact I'd venture to say it's nearly impossible, unless we get a behemoth of a storm (which this is not). We have blocking, granted it's rather East based, but nonetheless, the blocking is there. The -AO also means that the PV is not just going to retreat. This is not going to just run into this PV and displace it. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted January 31, 2015 Share Posted January 31, 2015 Barely anything measurable before 06z Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
UlsterCountySnowZ Posted January 31, 2015 Author Share Posted January 31, 2015 Light snow in the area hr33 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ENYsnow Posted January 31, 2015 Share Posted January 31, 2015 I've been saying this for the past several days. I see the room for this to translate South, but not North. Overcoming these global patterns is pretty hard for a s/w to do. In fact I'd venture to say it's nearly impossible, unless we get a behemoth of a storm (which this is not). We have blocking, granted it's rather East based, but nonetheless, the blocking is there. The -AO also means that the PV is not just going to retreat. This is not going to just run into this PV and displace it. Problem is the PV is zonally elongated as the storm over the Canadian Maritimes pulls away. A more potent and negatively tilted shortwave could easily pump heights up across the east coast. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
stlirish Posted January 31, 2015 Share Posted January 31, 2015 I've been saying this for the past several days. I see the room for this to translate South, but not North. Overcoming these global patterns is pretty hard for a s/w to do. In fact I'd venture to say it's nearly impossible, unless we get a behemoth of a storm (which this is not). We have blocking, granted it's rather East based, but nonetheless, the blocking is there. The -AO also means that the PV is not just going to retreat. This is not going to just run into this PV and displace it. AGREE 100% People keep talking about the big Snow/Mix/Rain storm from last year but this pattern is completely different Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted January 31, 2015 Share Posted January 31, 2015 The initial WAA is very weak Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
UlsterCountySnowZ Posted January 31, 2015 Author Share Posted January 31, 2015 This is gonna be a much drier run even for North of the city.. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
UlsterCountySnowZ Posted January 31, 2015 Author Share Posted January 31, 2015 Anyone from rockland county South is in a dry slot while the initial WWA goes way north Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted January 31, 2015 Share Posted January 31, 2015 Mix line makes it to 287 in NY Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
UlsterCountySnowZ Posted January 31, 2015 Author Share Posted January 31, 2015 Heavy snows by hr 39 for all LHV, NEPA, NNJ, Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
UlsterCountySnowZ Posted January 31, 2015 Author Share Posted January 31, 2015 Mix line makes it to 287 in NY All the way to North rockland Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Animal Posted January 31, 2015 Share Posted January 31, 2015 All the way to North rockland sounds like a disaster of a run. luckly it is the nam Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted January 31, 2015 Share Posted January 31, 2015 Crippiling ice storm almost area wide with surface very cold and 850's warm Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
UlsterCountySnowZ Posted January 31, 2015 Author Share Posted January 31, 2015 This is not a good run even for the NW burbs, Albany region makes out on this run.. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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