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February Banter Thread

H2O

By H2O,
in Mid Atlantic

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WEATHER53

WEATHER53

Posted
Posted

ers has experienced what others before him found out also. And that is, this board has a dozen or so very experienced, non-met(and met), weather observers who know their stuff from many years of watching DC/mid atlantic weather unfold. Most who elected to be authoritarian simply slunked away. A few, like ers, kinda did a mea culpa and admitted some people here are very good and joinged in with us.

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VAsnowlvr82

VAsnowlvr82

Posted
Posted

I'm writing this statement in the banter thread so the discussion board does not get clogged up.

Now that it appears the storm is trending north and the models are locking in at close range I want to express a few things here. First, I did make a pretty bold statement on this system sliding out to sea with little to no impact. There was good indication to believe that to happen and given our track record this winter it seemed to be the right idea. It still could very well happen but the idea is fading. For those that said I would learn my lesson, truthfully there is nothing for me to learn simply because I know better than to make bold statements beyond even day 3...especially in a place as challenging as the Middle Atlantic ;-). My professional position is to communicate uncertainty and to those that need critical information...decision makers. Sometimes I get tired of communicating uncertainty and hedging and would just like to express boldness once in a while. It's like a pitcher who throws hard fastballs his whole career. It's his best pitch but after years of wear and tear he wants to throw a slider to change it up a bit. The change works or it doesn't. In this case if the north trend works and my boldness is a bust I extend my apologies to you in many ways. I'm sorry if my comments were bold as I was merely explaining a possible solution to this system.

Scientists generally do not handle criticism well...geez I don't know anyone who does but it's been my goal from the start to be open to people on the forum. I have discussed this with Ian several times and the discussions have gone well. But...there are those people on here that make comments that can be unfounded, rude and just ignorant at times. If you only knew how tough our jobs really are. Generally if you treat people with respect and kindness the same will be returned even if it's criticism. Just coming out and saying " that's bs", "your product sucks", or other language will not draw a favorable response. There are very few folks, even in the field that truly understand how rigorous it can be to forecast, make decisions for millions of people and do so in a 24/7/365 environment. It can be grueling and difficult. Most operational folks are there because they love what they do.

That being said I'm very impressed with a handful of you on this forum! You know who you are as I've contacted you personally in the past. The blue tag you have does not match your skill. There are seriously some very knowledgeable folks on here that are mentors to me. I Learn from your analysis and you make this forum a great place.

Also, my comments on here do not represent the agency I work for. That must be said. I'm on here with a red tag but I'm also a hobbyist just like you. I love the weather. Been passionate about it since I was 7 and the passion was enough to dedicate my life to it for the long haul. It's been an interesting road traveled and it's great to meet enthusiastic people like yourselves.

Hope this message comes across in a good light.

Very nice post! Appreciate you taking the time to explain your thinking. You definitely add a lot to the board!

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paxpatriot

paxpatriot

Posted
Posted

Sort of on topic, but I greatly appreciate coming to this board daily and throughout the year (although I generally lurk outside of winter). Great place to learn from pros and "pros" alike, so I think ERS' post sums it up well. Great humility in explaining why his original thoughts were wrong on this particular storm, I tip my cap.

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clueless

clueless

Posted
Posted

Nice ERS. I was going to get around to the point you just made about having the freedom here to make a call when not in your formal work mode. Lol. I imagine it is liberating. It has been a winter of disappointment around here. If we get some decent snow everyone will "chill" a bit around here. I think most people appreciate your input. And you are right, there are some very knowledgable folks on this board. It's a great resource for learning.

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BristowWx

BristowWx

Posted
Posted

Forget snowfall totals  Now, the real question is what does OPM do?

The timing is perfect like seemingly everything else. I say they close for this one if it performs as we are hoping. Snow in DC is one thing but an all snow event with temps in the 20s is something as rare as an honest politician. I'm still in shock how this has progressed.

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chris87

chris87

Posted
Posted

I'm writing this statement in the banter thread so the discussion board does not get clogged up.

Now that it appears the storm is trending north and the models are locking in at close range I want to express a few things here. First, I did make a pretty bold statement on this system sliding out to sea with little to no impact. There was good indication to believe that to happen and given our track record this winter it seemed to be the right idea. It still could very well happen but the idea is fading. For those that said I would learn my lesson, truthfully there is nothing for me to learn simply because I know better than to make bold statements beyond even day 3...especially in a place as challenging as the Middle Atlantic ;-). My professional position is to communicate uncertainty and to those that need critical information...decision makers. Sometimes I get tired of communicating uncertainty and hedging and would just like to express boldness once in a while. It's like a pitcher who throws hard fastballs his whole career. It's his best pitch but after years of wear and tear he wants to throw a slider to change it up a bit. The change works or it doesn't. In this case if the north trend works and my boldness is a bust I extend my apologies to you in many ways. I'm sorry if my comments were bold as I was merely explaining a possible solution to this system.

Scientists generally do not handle criticism well...geez I don't know anyone who does but it's been my goal from the start to be open to people on the forum. I have discussed this with Ian several times and the discussions have gone well. But...there are those people on here that make comments that can be unfounded, rude and just ignorant at times. If you only knew how tough our jobs really are. Generally if you treat people with respect and kindness the same will be returned even if it's criticism. Just coming out and saying " that's bs", "your product sucks", or other language will not draw a favorable response. There are very few folks, even in the field that truly understand how rigorous it can be to forecast, make decisions for millions of people and do so in a 24/7/365 environment. It can be grueling and difficult. Most operational folks are there because they love what they do.

That being said I'm very impressed with a handful of you on this forum! You know who you are as I've contacted you personally in the past. The blue tag you have does not match your skill. There are seriously some very knowledgeable folks on here that are mentors to me. I Learn from your analysis and you make this forum a great place.

Also, my comments on here do not represent the agency I work for. That must be said. I'm on here with a red tag but I'm also a hobbyist just like you. I love the weather. Been passionate about it since I was 7 and the passion was enough to dedicate my life to it for the long haul. It's been an interesting road traveled and it's great to meet enthusiastic people like yourselves.

Hope this message comes across in a good light.

 

good post -- you at least had the faith to make a call and I think we all thought things would go your way -- apologies again for the snark yesterday. debate is fun, makes us all better scientists, forecasters, etc., but sometimes always isn't initiated well

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WinterWxLuvr

WinterWxLuvr

Posted
Posted

I'm writing this statement in the banter thread so the discussion board does not get clogged up.

Now that it appears the storm is trending north and the models are locking in at close range I want to express a few things here. First, I did make a pretty bold statement on this system sliding out to sea with little to no impact. There was good indication to believe that to happen and given our track record this winter it seemed to be the right idea. It still could very well happen but the idea is fading. For those that said I would learn my lesson, truthfully there is nothing for me to learn simply because I know better than to make bold statements beyond even day 3...especially in a place as challenging as the Middle Atlantic ;-). My professional position is to communicate uncertainty and to those that need critical information...decision makers. Sometimes I get tired of communicating uncertainty and hedging and would just like to express boldness once in a while. It's like a pitcher who throws hard fastballs his whole career. It's his best pitch but after years of wear and tear he wants to throw a slider to change it up a bit. The change works or it doesn't. In this case if the north trend works and my boldness is a bust I extend my apologies to you in many ways. I'm sorry if my comments were bold as I was merely explaining a possible solution to this system.

Scientists generally do not handle criticism well...geez I don't know anyone who does but it's been my goal from the start to be open to people on the forum. I have discussed this with Ian several times and the discussions have gone well. But...there are those people on here that make comments that can be unfounded, rude and just ignorant at times. If you only knew how tough our jobs really are. Generally if you treat people with respect and kindness the same will be returned even if it's criticism. Just coming out and saying " that's bs", "your product sucks", or other language will not draw a favorable response. There are very few folks, even in the field that truly understand how rigorous it can be to forecast, make decisions for millions of people and do so in a 24/7/365 environment. It can be grueling and difficult. Most operational folks are there because they love what they do.

That being said I'm very impressed with a handful of you on this forum! You know who you are as I've contacted you personally in the past. The blue tag you have does not match your skill. There are seriously some very knowledgeable folks on here that are mentors to me. I Learn from your analysis and you make this forum a great place.

Also, my comments on here do not represent the agency I work for. That must be said. I'm on here with a red tag but I'm also a hobbyist just like you. I love the weather. Been passionate about it since I was 7 and the passion was enough to dedicate my life to it for the long haul. It's been an interesting road traveled and it's great to meet enthusiastic people like yourselves.

Hope this message comes across in a good light.

LOL, why can't you just laugh it off? The rest of us would. It's not just about weather...it's about fun.

BTW, barring a miracle....it came north ;).

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ers-wxman1

ers-wxman1

Posted
Posted

good post -- you at least had the faith to make a call and I think we all thought things would go your way -- apologies again for the snark yesterday. debate is fun, makes us all better scientists, forecasters, etc., but sometimes always isn't initiated well

Thanks Chris. Thanks also for the PM yesterday. I'm interested in reading the literature on NWP. Send it my way. My apologies as well for getting snippy.

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Fozz

Fozz

Posted
Posted

ers has experienced what others before him found out also. And that is, this board has a dozen or so very experienced, non-met(and met), weather observers who know their stuff from many years of watching DC/mid atlantic weather unfold. Most who elected to be authoritarian simply slunked away. A few, like ers, kinda did a mea culpa and admitted some people here are very good and joinged in with us.

 

erswx-man has always been very humble in spite of his knowledge... I don't recall him ever puffing up his credentials or talking down to anyone who isn't a met. In case you forgot, he was reluctant to get a red tag when he first joined because having status isn't his thing.

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chris87

chris87

Posted
Posted

Thanks Chris. Thanks also for the PM yesterday. I'm interested in reading the literature on NWP. Send it my way. My apologies as well for getting snippy.

 

will do -- it may be a bit but i'll get a chance to put together some papers -- travel schedule is crazy for the next 3 weeks -- one week in Morocco, one week home, one week in Egypt

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nw baltimore wx

nw baltimore wx

Posted
Posted

Two things I take away from ers's call and post. First, I wonder how this would have turned out had the energy held back like it was modeled to just a day ago.  Maybe that would have been ots?  Secondly, and more importantly, the fact that things changed so radically in the past 24 hours lends credence to his statement regarding Baja lows and modeling. 

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