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February Banter Thread

H2O

By H2O,
in Mid Atlantic

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BTRWx

BTRWx

Posted
Posted

Not really. We'll know more tomorrow of course. These types of storms almost always have a max stripe with mesocale banding. 

 

Suface flow goes se-e-ne through the event. Orographic ehancement possible in the usual areas. 

Anything to get us past climo! :)

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ers-wxman1

ers-wxman1

Posted
Posted

I'm writing this statement in the banter thread so the discussion board does not get clogged up.

Now that it appears the storm is trending north and the models are locking in at close range I want to express a few things here. First, I did make a pretty bold statement on this system sliding out to sea with little to no impact. There was good indication to believe that to happen and given our track record this winter it seemed to be the right idea. It still could very well happen but the idea is fading. For those that said I would learn my lesson, truthfully there is nothing for me to learn simply because I know better than to make bold statements beyond even day 3...especially in a place as challenging as the Middle Atlantic ;-). My professional position is to communicate uncertainty and to those that need critical information...decision makers. Sometimes I get tired of communicating uncertainty and hedging and would just like to express boldness once in a while. It's like a pitcher who throws hard fastballs his whole career. It's his best pitch but after years of wear and tear he wants to throw a slider to change it up a bit. The change works or it doesn't. In this case if the north trend works and my boldness is a bust I extend my apologies to you in many ways. I'm sorry if my comments were bold as I was merely explaining a possible solution to this system.

Scientists generally do not handle criticism well...geez I don't know anyone who does but it's been my goal from the start to be open to people on the forum. I have discussed this with Ian several times and the discussions have gone well. But...there are those people on here that make comments that can be unfounded, rude and just ignorant at times. If you only knew how tough our jobs really are. Generally if you treat people with respect and kindness the same will be returned even if it's criticism. Just coming out and saying " that's bs", "your product sucks", or other language will not draw a favorable response. There are very few folks, even in the field that truly understand how rigorous it can be to forecast, make decisions for millions of people and do so in a 24/7/365 environment. It can be grueling and difficult. Most operational folks are there because they love what they do.

That being said I'm very impressed with a handful of you on this forum! You know who you are as I've contacted you personally in the past. The blue tag you have does not match your skill. There are seriously some very knowledgeable folks on here that are mentors to me. I Learn from your analysis and you make this forum a great place.

Also, my comments on here do not represent the agency I work for. That must be said. I'm on here with a red tag but I'm also a hobbyist just like you. I love the weather. Been passionate about it since I was 7 and the passion was enough to dedicate my life to it for the long haul. It's been an interesting road traveled and it's great to meet enthusiastic people like yourselves.

Hope this message comes across in a good light.

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AlaskaETC

AlaskaETC

Posted
Posted

I'm writing this statement in the banter thread so the discussion board does not get clogged up.

Now that it appears the storm is trending north and the models are locking in at close range I want to express a few things here. First, I did make a pretty bold statement on this system sliding out to sea with little to no impact. There was good indication to believe that to happen and given our track record this winter it seemed to be the right idea. It still could very well happen but the idea is fading. For those that said I would learn my lesson, truthfully there is nothing for me to learn simply because I know better than to make bold statements beyond even day 3...especially in a place as challenging as the Middle Atlantic ;-). My professional position is to communicate uncertainty and to those that need critical information...decision makers. Sometimes I get tired of communicating uncertainty and hedging and would just like to express boldness once in a while. It's like a pitcher who throws hard fastballs his whole career. It's his best pitch but after years of wear and tear he wants to throw a slider to change it up a bit. The change works or it doesn't. In this case if the north trend works and my boldness is a bust I extend my apologies to you in many ways. I'm sorry if my comments were bold as I was merely explaining a possible solution to this system.

Scientists generally do not handle criticism well...geez I don't know anyone who does but it's been my goal from the start to be open to people on the forum. I have discussed this with Ian several times and the discussions have gone well. But...there are those people on here that make comments that can be unfounded, rude and just ignorant at times. If you only knew how tough our jobs really are. Generally if you treat people with respect and kindness the same will be returned even if it's criticism. Just coming out and saying " that's bs", "your product sucks", or other language will not draw a favorable response. There are very few folks, even in the field that truly understand how rigorous it can be to forecast, make decisions for millions of people and do so in a 24/7/365 environment. It can be grueling and difficult. Most operational folks are there because they love what they do.

That being said I'm very impressed with a handful of you on this forum! You know who you are as I've contacted you personally in the past. The blue tag you have does not match your skill. There are seriously some very knowledgeable folks on here that are mentors to me. I Learn from your analysis and you make this forum a great place.

Also, my comments on here do not represent the agency I work for. That must be said. I'm on here with a red tag but I'm also a hobbyist just like you. I love the weather. Been passionate about it since I was 7 and the passion was enough to dedicate my life to it for the long haul. It's been an interesting road traveled and it's great to meet enthusiastic people like yourselves.

Hope this message comes across in a good light.

:clap: :clap: :clap:

 

I throughly enjoy your posts. Please do not be discouraged and feel free to continue to share your valuable insight!

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ravensrule

ravensrule

Posted
Posted

I'm writing this statement in the banter thread so the discussion board does not get clogged up.

Now that it appears the storm is trending north and the models are locking in at close range I want to express a few things here. First, I did make a pretty bold statement on this system sliding out to sea with little to no impact. There was good indication to believe that to happen and given our track record this winter it seemed to be the right idea. It still could very well happen but the idea is fading. For those that said I would learn my lesson, truthfully there is nothing for me to learn simply because I know better than to make bold statements beyond even day 3...especially in a place as challenging as the Middle Atlantic ;-). My professional position is to communicate uncertainty and to those that need critical information...decision makers. Sometimes I get tired of communicating uncertainty and hedging and would just like to express boldness once in a while. It's like a pitcher who throws hard fastballs his whole career. It's his best pitch but after years of wear and tear he wants to throw a slider to change it up a bit. The change works or it doesn't. In this case if the north trend works and my boldness is a bust I extend my apologies to you in many ways. I'm sorry if my comments were bold as I was merely explaining a possible solution to this system.

Scientists generally do not handle criticism well...geez I don't know anyone who does but it's been my goal from the start to be open to people on the forum. I have discussed this with Ian several times and the discussions have gone well. But...there are those people on here that make comments that can be unfounded, rude and just ignorant at times. If you only knew how tough our jobs really are. Generally if you treat people with respect and kindness the same will be returned even if it's criticism. Just coming out and saying " that's bs", "your product sucks", or other language will not draw a favorable response. There are very few folks, even in the field that truly understand how rigorous it can be to forecast, make decisions for millions of people and do so in a 24/7/365 environment. It can be grueling and difficult. Most operational folks are there because they love what they do.

That being said I'm very impressed with a handful of you on this forum! You know who you are as I've contacted you personally in the past. The blue tag you have does not match your skill. There are seriously some very knowledgeable folks on here that are mentors to me. I Learn from your analysis and you make this forum a great place.

Also, my comments on here do not represent the agency I work for. That must be said. I'm on here with a red tag but I'm also a hobbyist just like you. I love the weather. Been passionate about it since I was 7 and the passion was enough to dedicate my life to it for the long haul. It's been an interesting road traveled and it's great to meet enthusiastic people like yourselves.

Hope this message comes across in a good light.

:clap:  :clap:  :clap:  :clap:  :clap:  :clap: Great post and there is nothing wrong with being bold. Plus 90% of the time you would be right around here. I truly enjoy having you here and it is nice to see a pro can also be a weenie.

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eurojosh

eurojosh

Posted
Posted

:clap: :clap: :clap:

 

I throughly enjoy your posts. Please do not be discouraged and feel free to continue to share your valuable insight!

 

This - and more.  Your prediction of a southern slider was statistically by far more probably when you made it than what it looks like we'r ending up with; as you said, at work predicting is all about hedging, but here we can all make the calls we want to.  You bring a level of professionalism and insight to this board that I - as a decidely 'un-useful' and inamateur member - appreciate.

 

And if it weren't for that meddling ridge - you'd be right about this one too...!

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BTRWx

BTRWx

Posted
Posted

I'm writing this statement in the banter thread so the discussion board does not get clogged up.

Now that it appears the storm is trending north and the models are locking in at close range I want to express a few things here. First, I did make a pretty bold statement on this system sliding out to sea with little to no impact. There was good indication to believe that to happen and given our track record this winter it seemed to be the right idea. It still could very well happen but the idea is fading. For those that said I would learn my lesson, truthfully there is nothing for me to learn simply because I know better than to make bold statements beyond even day 3...especially in a place as challenging as the Middle Atlantic ;-). My professional position is to communicate uncertainty and to those that need critical information...decision makers. Sometimes I get tired of communicating uncertainty and hedging and would just like to express boldness once in a while. It's like a pitcher who throws hard fastballs his whole career. It's his best pitch but after years of wear and tear he wants to throw a slider to change it up a bit. The change works or it doesn't. In this case if the north trend works and my boldness is a bust I extend my apologies to you in many ways. I'm sorry if my comments were bold as I was merely explaining a possible solution to this system.

Scientists generally do not handle criticism well...geez I don't know anyone who does but it's been my goal from the start to be open to people on the forum. I have discussed this with Ian several times and the discussions have gone well. But...there are those people on here that make comments that can be unfounded, rude and just ignorant at times. If you only knew how tough our jobs really are. Generally if you treat people with respect and kindness the same will be returned even if it's criticism. Just coming out and saying " that's bs", "your product sucks", or other language will not draw a favorable response. There are very few folks, even in the field that truly understand how rigorous it can be to forecast, make decisions for millions of people and do so in a 24/7/365 environment. It can be grueling and difficult. Most operational folks are there because they love what they do.

That being said I'm very impressed with a handful of you on this forum! You know who you are as I've contacted you personally in the past. The blue tag you have does not match your skill. There are seriously some very knowledgeable folks on here that are mentors to me. I Learn from your analysis and you make this forum a great place.

Also, my comments on here do not represent the agency I work for. That must be said. I'm on here with a red tag but I'm also a hobbyist just like you. I love the weather. Been passionate about it since I was 7 and the passion was enough to dedicate my life to it for the long haul. It's been an interesting road traveled and it's great to meet enthusiastic people like yourselves.

Hope this message comes across in a good light.

but what about the storm? haha  Many of us should let your text sink in a bit. Good choice for banter imo (not that I don't like it)

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Ian

Ian

Posted
Posted

This didn't even really become an event till recently. We seem to get confused between a period of interest and an actual storm sometimes. It was like 6 days ago plenty of people were convinced it was going west and were rooting for front end thump. Only people who don't make bad calls are people who don't make any calls.

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Bob Chill

Bob Chill

Posted
Posted

No worries ERS. We all appreciate your contributions here. We will always take a few pokes at a definitive call outside of short range. There a long history here about that. Tag or no tag, people like seeing those calls bust and not keeping it quiet. You owned it and handled it perfectly. Respect. 

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