paweather Posted February 1, 2015 Share Posted February 1, 2015 Per Nam this all occurs between 27-36 hours fast moving and done. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Santa Clause Posted February 1, 2015 Share Posted February 1, 2015 How many times can this change!!!! haha Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
paweather Posted February 1, 2015 Share Posted February 1, 2015 How many times can this change!!!! haha Too many to count Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Blizz Posted February 1, 2015 Share Posted February 1, 2015 NAM improved from 18z run. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
paweather Posted February 1, 2015 Share Posted February 1, 2015 NAM improved from 18z run. Scale and counties? This is a good start to 0z Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Santa Clause Posted February 1, 2015 Share Posted February 1, 2015 Ehhh giant precip. hole hurts most...but it's mainly only showing up on nam. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Voyager Posted February 1, 2015 Share Posted February 1, 2015 0z NAM Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MAG5035 Posted February 1, 2015 Share Posted February 1, 2015 Are you going to put out a map mag? With the way the models are performing, Mag might want to wait until after the storm to put out a map. Your on to me haha, actually I will be trying to start setting up a general idea of how I want the map with 0z guidance tonight and put it out in the morning before things get rolling. I'm still sticking with the idea that the low finds a way to sneak under PA or starts transferring to the coast before it gets too deep into PA. Rough idea of how my map will probably go with the current model situation is low or even sub advisory snows in the far SW corner of the state, general advisory level of 2-4 below the turnpike, 4-8 between the turnpike and 80, and 8-10 or 8-12 at and above the 80 corridor. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
pawatch Posted February 1, 2015 Share Posted February 1, 2015 This is ugly! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MAG5035 Posted February 1, 2015 Share Posted February 1, 2015 Local radiational cooling making for a wide swing of temps tonight. I-99 which runs at a higher elevation between Altoona and Bellwood was at 22ºF when I was on it just a bit ago to come home. Temps plummeted all the way to 15ºF here at the house about a mile and a half west of the interstate. Pretty night out with the foot of snowpack and nearly full moon. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NortheastPAWx Posted February 1, 2015 Share Posted February 1, 2015 The problem right now is that it seems these models can't make up their damn mind...no one knows which camp they want to be in! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MillvilleWx Posted February 1, 2015 Share Posted February 1, 2015 NAM is fairly close to an ice event in LSV. Have to watch those surface Obs closely in this area. The ground is pretty cold from past 36 hours and tomorrow will be below freezing as well for pretty much all day. Just a few degrees colder and it could get ugly especially for valleys that trap cold longer. Just something to keep in mind. I think the idea of a warm air intrusion at the mid levels is all but sealed now. The 2 big questions now are how long can the surface cold hold and what is the QPF situation. With the surface low and 850 low going north of the area, the best precip coinciding with the best isentropic lift will be across the northern tier, so precip intensity should be lower in the LSV, but a secondary enhancement of precip over the eastern half due to a energy transfer at coast could spur up and cause an increase in QPF over Lancaster, Lebanon and points further east. Will need to see how this plays out. Models tend to under predict surface cold and WAA, so I'd be watching pretty closely. Behind the system, it looks like a great punch of CAA that will cause temps to plummet over all of PA. Tuesday morning will be incredibly cold throughout the Commonwealth and with fresh snow pack and winds out of N/NW will make temperatures in CPA dip near or below zero and the southern tier might be in for a flash freeze of any standing water on the surface. Interesting 48-72 ahead. If anyone has anything to add or discuss, please feel free. Just got back from enjoying the Philly car show. Great time for anyone who loves automotives 17/9 in Millersville currently Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mahantango#1 Posted February 1, 2015 Share Posted February 1, 2015 Currently 5 degrees here. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
pirates21 Posted February 1, 2015 Share Posted February 1, 2015 Local radiational cooling making for a wide swing of temps tonight. I-99 which runs at a higher elevation between Altoona and Bellwood was at 22ºF when I was on it just a bit ago to come home. Temps plummeted all the way to 15ºF here at the house about a mile and a half west of the interstate. Pretty night out with the foot of snowpack and nearly full moon. It is a beautiful winter night. The stars are very visible with a nice waxing moon. Just got in. Still 22 here in Altoona. Very calm out. Hopefully its the calm before a heavy snowfall Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
canderson Posted February 1, 2015 Share Posted February 1, 2015 Down to 13 here. It's nipply. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
sauss06 Posted February 1, 2015 Share Posted February 1, 2015 Down to 13 here. It's nipply. It is, just got home from.hockey game Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Blizz Posted February 1, 2015 Share Posted February 1, 2015 00z GFS Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
2001kx Posted February 1, 2015 Share Posted February 1, 2015 No talk of the gfs so it must be bad? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
pawatch Posted February 1, 2015 Share Posted February 1, 2015 Nam looks a little warm for about 6hrs from about 30-36hrs. GFS looks warmer almost the same hours. It p_sses me off...all this cold and we got to worry about temps. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
canderson Posted February 1, 2015 Share Posted February 1, 2015 I find the warmup really hard to believe, especially here in the valley. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
sauss06 Posted February 1, 2015 Share Posted February 1, 2015 Earlier in the week I brought up the temperature issue . Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Santa Clause Posted February 1, 2015 Share Posted February 1, 2015 Correct me if I'm wrong but GFS looks a touch cooler than 18z. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MillvilleWx Posted February 1, 2015 Share Posted February 1, 2015 15/9 now at Millersville. Calm and clear Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Blizz Posted February 1, 2015 Share Posted February 1, 2015 Correct me if I'm wrong but GFS looks a touch cooler than 18z. Yes, GFS is cooler than 18z and a tad south. Luckily the bleeding from earlier's north trends appears to have stopped. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jim Marusak Posted February 1, 2015 Share Posted February 1, 2015 I find the warmup really hard to believe, especially here in the valley. the warmup is more aloft than necessarily at the surface, so the ice spectre is bigger issue than the regular rain, imho for you. but we will have time to see. besides, as some in here are hinting, the warming trend aloft in the models with time seems to have stalled in its northwards ascent attm with the 00z runs on NAM, GFS, and Can-Regional. but the 500 vort maps seem to still have some slight differences, esp between the GEM-reg and the GFS. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Mallow Posted February 1, 2015 Share Posted February 1, 2015 Correct me if I'm wrong but GFS looks a touch cooler than 18z. You're definitely right. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Rick G Posted February 1, 2015 Share Posted February 1, 2015 6.5f here I agree that it is hard to imagine it changing over to rain.... If it does, it will be a mess Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jim Marusak Posted February 1, 2015 Share Posted February 1, 2015 6.5f here I agree that it is hard to imagine it changing over to rain.... If it does, it will be a mess some of the grid output up there is suggesting that, but i'm thinking mixing at times with sleet and freezing rain, esp in mountaintop, Hazleton, and Shickshinny compared to up in scranton and Tunkhannock. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Santa Clause Posted February 1, 2015 Share Posted February 1, 2015 Man not very often GFS gives us over an inch of precip in a winter storm, too bad half will be wasted on sleet. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NortheastPAWx Posted February 1, 2015 Share Posted February 1, 2015 It's hard for us to get ZR here, it will probably be an SN-IP(-maybe SN) event. Doubt we warm above 32. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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