NortheastPAWx Posted January 31, 2015 Share Posted January 31, 2015 GGEM says "Go home GFS, you're drunk." Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
cfbaggett Posted January 31, 2015 Share Posted January 31, 2015 The problem is that i think the storm last week was a lot more volatile - rapidly deepening storm where timing of a closed 500mb low changed the track. Not sure that there is any feature to this where a big shift would occur. We can all dream of HP pressing down, snow pack in place, and an energy tranfer. But that might be weenie dreams One could also dream that it is all rain and flooding. Matter of perspective I suppose. Truth of the matter is that there are two model camps right now. I don't think it is a weenie dream to say the low is going to jump to the coast so long as there is model support showing it. The 00Z Euro shows exactly that scenario and now the 12Z GEM (although warmer than its 0Z run) shows it as well. It's an interesting showdown to say the least. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
cfbaggett Posted January 31, 2015 Share Posted January 31, 2015 Storm Total Snowfall Link to: Latest Winter Weather Message Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Voyager Posted January 31, 2015 Share Posted January 31, 2015 Zoomed in county maps of NAM and GFS still show around 5 inches near MDT, with a few inches more just to the north. It won't take much of a shift south with the track, say just 50 miles, to make this much better for the LSV. I didn't do a 12z GFS map. Do you all want one or should I just wait for the 18z suite? I can do the CMC now unless you think it's irrelevant. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Voyager Posted January 31, 2015 Share Posted January 31, 2015 Why not. They're easy to make now. Latest CMC. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NortheastPAWx Posted January 31, 2015 Share Posted January 31, 2015 Why not. They're easy to make now. Latest CMC. CMC.jpg Let's ride along... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Voyager Posted January 31, 2015 Share Posted January 31, 2015 Let's ride along... I'd love to, but I have a hard time believing that outcome, as much as I want to. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MAG5035 Posted January 31, 2015 Share Posted January 31, 2015 UKMET still setting that northern bound, driving the surface low thru NW PA and the 850 low through Erie. Really could've done without the 12z GFS... but above 80 is still in line to get throttled anyways (unless the UKMET's right). The corridor between the turnpike and 80 is going to be impossible to call... as usual. The southern tier will be also, but unless we start getting the low back south of the PA border it's becoming more evident that more extensive mixing will take over there. Glad I haven't put a map out yet. I've said this twice yesterday and I'll say it again, if the low tracks through PA snowfall is going to be hurt from a QPF standpoint regardless of mixing or not (except for maybe the northern tier of PA) as precip would shut off and become more scattered as the best forcing for the banded precip goes north. The front end should be all snow for most everyone and it will likely become an issue of how much falls before the low tracks into PA. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MAG5035 Posted January 31, 2015 Share Posted January 31, 2015 No noteworthy diffs between the 12z GFS ensemble mean vs the OP. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Itstrainingtime Posted January 31, 2015 Share Posted January 31, 2015 Horst: Coating-3" south of turnpike, 3"-6" from pike to I-80, 6"+ north of there... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Blizz Posted January 31, 2015 Share Posted January 31, 2015 UKMET is a GLC Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MAG5035 Posted January 31, 2015 Share Posted January 31, 2015 Nothing notable difference-wise through 30 with the new Euro, precip just arriving into western PA. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MAG5035 Posted January 31, 2015 Share Posted January 31, 2015 Euro might be a slight bit north of 0z but it still traverses roughly the Mason-Dixon. 850s are a bit warmer, with the 0C line briefly poking up to about UNV at 48 before secondary quickly takes over off the Jersey shore and crashes 850s state-wide by 54. Northern 2/3s still has shield of .1-.25" hanging around at 54. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
djr5001 Posted January 31, 2015 Share Posted January 31, 2015 12z Euro has joined all others... I still think State College/Williamsport are in really good positions to get crushed... going to walk a fine line down this way... while models are not looking the greatest right now I still think some over running is going to really hit someone good... incredible amount of moisture across central US right now Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NortheastPAWx Posted January 31, 2015 Share Posted January 31, 2015 ECM sounds all right enough. So it's our European and Canadian friends allying with our wounded NAM taking on the GFS and the Brits. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MAG5035 Posted January 31, 2015 Share Posted January 31, 2015 12z Euro has joined all others... I still think State College/Williamsport are in really good positions to get crushed... going to walk a fine line down this way... while models are not looking the greatest right now I still think some over running is going to really hit someone good... incredible amount of moisture across central US right now Dang that reminds me of the water vapor image a couple days before the 2/5/2010 storm. I had the image saved on my old laptop, not sure where it went. No big block and confluence for this one though. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Blizz Posted January 31, 2015 Share Posted January 31, 2015 JMA Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MAG5035 Posted January 31, 2015 Share Posted January 31, 2015 JMA Lol that looks like that would still give DC a chance. Guess that's our southern bound of the guidance envelope with the UKMET the northernmost. At least the varsity squad is all somewhere in between.. although that doesn't make the forecast for our region any easier. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Blizzard of 93 Posted January 31, 2015 Share Posted January 31, 2015 Weatherbell regional map for PA with counties shows 5-6 inches at MDT with similar amounts running along the PA turnpike. 9-10 inch amounts run along I-80. It looks like a consensus is building for a solid 5-10 inch PA storm. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Voyager Posted January 31, 2015 Share Posted January 31, 2015 Can anyone tell my why this feature (circled in red) nearly ALWAYS shows up on the models in my area? If I am on the northern gradient it pokes south and lowers totals, and in this case, since I am on the southern gradient, it pokes north and lowers totals. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hoar_Frost Posted January 31, 2015 Share Posted January 31, 2015 Can anyone tell my why this feature (circled in red) nearly ALWAYS shows up on the models in my area? If I am on the northern gradient it pokes south and lowers totals, and in this case, since I am on the southern gradient, it pokes north and lowers totals. evHQaYA.jpg Looks like the outline of the Lackawanna valley. Lower elevations there compared to those in areas surrounding. That's my guess. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Voyager Posted January 31, 2015 Share Posted January 31, 2015 Looks like the outline of the Lackawanna valley. Lower elevations there compared to those in areas surrounding. That's my guess. On this particular map, but like I said, when we are on the northern edge, that same feature dips south. There are hills and valleys in other parts of the state. There must be some sort of unique land feature locally that wants to downslope or something here. It's kind of like the summer thunderstorms. Get a good squall line traversing the state, and yet it falls apart about 10 miles or so from me, and then reforms as it heads toward the Lehigh Valley or the Poconos. Strange... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
paweather Posted January 31, 2015 Share Posted January 31, 2015 12z Euro has joined all others... I still think State College/Williamsport are in really good positions to get crushed... going to walk a fine line down this way... while models are not looking the greatest right now I still think some over running is going to really hit someone good... incredible amount of moisture across central US right now DJR about 5" on euro for us? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
cfbaggett Posted January 31, 2015 Share Posted January 31, 2015 Just throwing a bone out there if anyone is already tired of this storm... Euro day 7 through 10 has UNV picking up another 21" on top of this storm. Good for a laugh I guess... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
canderson Posted January 31, 2015 Share Posted January 31, 2015 ECMWF Deterministic FORECAST FOR: MDT LAT= 40.18 LON= -76.75 ELE= 308 12Z JAN31 2 M 850 SFC SFC 700 6 HR 500 1000 TMP TMP PRS RHU RHU QPF HGT 500 © © (MB) (PCT) (PCT) (IN) (DM) THK SUN 12Z 01-FEB -8.5 -6.3 1024 77 95 0.00 551 532 SUN 18Z 01-FEB 0.0 -5.8 1021 76 85 0.04 551 534 MON 00Z 02-FEB -1.3 -2.2 1018 95 95 0.07 550 536 MON 06Z 02-FEB -1.3 -1.8 1010 92 100 0.14 547 539 MON 12Z 02-FEB 0.1 2.2 1000 97 97 0.35 542 542 MON 18Z 02-FEB 1.9 -2.3 997 83 60 0.09 529 532 TUE 00Z 03-FEB -8.9 -13.9 1012 67 54 0.05 528 519 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
2001kx Posted January 31, 2015 Share Posted January 31, 2015 2 products issued by NWS for: Hyde PA More Sharing ServicesShare | Share on facebook Share on twitter Share on email Share on print Share on gmail Winter Storm Warning URGENT - WINTER WEATHER MESSAGENATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE STATE COLLEGE PA257 PM EST SAT JAN 31 2015...WINTER STORM TO AFFECT ALL OF CENTRAL PENNSYLVANIA SUNDAY INTOMONDAY...PAZ017>019-049>053-058-010800-/O.UPG.KCTP.WS.A.0002.150201T1700Z-150202T1700Z//O.NEW.KCTP.WS.W.0002.150201T1400Z-150202T1800Z/CLEARFIELD-NORTHERN CENTRE-SOUTHERN CENTRE-UNION-SNYDER-MONTOUR-NORTHUMBERLAND-COLUMBIA-SCHUYLKILL-INCLUDING THE CITIES OF...DUBOIS...CLEARFIELD...PHILIPSBURG...STATE COLLEGE...LEWISBURG...SELINSGROVE...DANVILLE...SUNBURY...SHAMOKIN...BLOOMSBURG...BERWICK...POTTSVILLE257 PM EST SAT JAN 31 2015...WINTER STORM WARNING IN EFFECT FROM 9 AM SUNDAY TO 1 PM ESTMONDAY...THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN STATE COLLEGE HAS ISSUED A WINTERSTORM WARNING FOR SNOW AND MIXED PRECIPITATION...WHICH IS INEFFECT FROM 9 AM SUNDAY TO 1 PM EST MONDAY. THE WINTER STORM WATCHIS NO LONGER IN EFFECT.* LOCATIONS...THE CENTRAL MOUNTAINS AND MIDDLE SUSQUEHANNA VALLEY.* HAZARD TYPES...HEAVY SNOW FOLLOWED BY SOME FREEZING RAIN.* SNOW ACCUMULATIONS...6 TO 8 INCHES.* ICE ACCUMULATIONS...LESS THAN A TENTH OF AN INCH.* TIMING...SNOW WILL BEGIN SUNDAY MORNING AND CONTINUE INTO SUNDAY NIGHT. THE SNOW WILL TURN TO FREEZING RAIN AND THEN BRIEFLY TO RAIN EARLY MONDAY MORNING. IT SHOULD GO BACK TO SNOW BY NOON MONDAY AS IT TAPERS TO SCATTERED SNOW SHOWERS.* PERIOD OF HEAVIEST SNOW...SUNDAY EVENING AND EARLY SUNDAY NIGHT.* IMPACTS...HAZARDOUS TRAVEL DUE TO SNOW COVERED ROADS. A COATING OF ICE WILL THEN MAY SIDEWALKS AND UNTREATED SURFACES SLIPPERY.* WINDS...LIGHT AND VARIABLE. BECOMING NORTH TO NORTHWEST AND INCREASING TO AROUND 10 MPH WITH HIGHER GUSTS ON MONDAY.PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Itunis Posted January 31, 2015 Share Posted January 31, 2015 Warnings up for most of the area, southern tier covered by an advisory. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Mallow Posted January 31, 2015 Share Posted January 31, 2015 NAM looks to be coming in stronger/warmer again. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
canderson Posted January 31, 2015 Share Posted January 31, 2015 Here's the WSW text for Dauphin. FWIW I'm about 10 or 15 miles north of the turnpike, ...Winter Storm Warning in effect from 9 am Sunday to 8 am EST Monday... The National Weather Service in State College has issued a Winter Storm Warning for snow and freezing rain...which is in effect from 9 am Sunday to 8 am EST Monday. The Winter Storm Watch is no longer in effect. * Locations...the central mountains and portions of the lower Susquehanna valley. * Hazard types...snow followed by freezing rain. * Snow accumulations...4 to 7 inches. * Ice accumulations...around a tenth of an inch. * Timing...snow will begin Sunday morning or early afternoon and continue into Sunday night. The snow will turn to freezing rain then to plain rain late Sunday night or Monday morning. It should then taper off to scattered snow showers on Monday. * Period of heaviest snow...Sunday evening and early Sunday night. * Impacts...hazardous travel due to snow covered roads. A coating of ice will then may sidewalks and untreated surfaces slippery. * Winds...light and variable. Becoming northwest and increasing to around 10 mph with higher gusts on Monday. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Voyager Posted January 31, 2015 Share Posted January 31, 2015 NAM looks to be coming in stronger/warmer again. It sure does. Maybe a touch slower as well. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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