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Central PA & the fringes - January 2015 Part III


WmsptWx

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when the temp dropped yesterday late afternoon, it really didn't take long to ice up. At 6pm my wife and i went to a softball meeting and i almost fell on my azz. While in the meeting it turned to snow and it was still snowing when i went to bed at 11. i didn't measure, but eye balling 1". I'm spending more for these piddly Azz events then i would for a major storm. When it rains, then freezes, then snows on top of that is a nightmare and i end up using more salt/cinders then normal.

 

 

Sad event for you Millersville peeps this weekend :cry:

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I think the negativity stems from not getting something that people think they're entitled to. When nearby cities get hit with huge snowfalls that miss them, they feel as if they were slighted somehow. When it happens repeatedly, the angst only multiplies. Call it jealousy, frustration, bitterness...whatever, but snow brings out the best and worst in people depending on whether or not they get snow at their location.

 

Another thing...in my area, our longtime average is about one, 12' snow per decade. Having been born in 1965, I experienced foot-plus snows in '78,  '79, and '83. 3 large storms in 18 years. I then went another decade until the Superstorm of '93 dropped 18" in Lancaster. That started an unprecedented stretch of major snows in '96, '03, and 3 more in '09-'10. That's 6 more in 17 years...which is WAY above what I should even dream of expecting. Problem is, many on this board have "grown up" during this stretch in areas like NYC and Philly that don't understand that what they've grown up with is NOT typical. We have a bunch of spoiled people in some of our neighboring forums that expect a 2' snowstorm several times a winter. And when it doesn't happen, it further pisses off people that haven't had any such storms in years, which is understandable. 

 

At any rate, for those that care...Eric Horst said that from the 12th (Thursday) to the 19th will define our winter down here. He's saying we have near-record cold and multiple snow threats in this period. Let's see what happens...

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I think the negativity stems from not getting something that people think they're entitled to. When nearby cities get hit with huge snowfalls that miss them, they feel as if they were slighted somehow. When it happens repeatedly, the angst only multiplies. Call it jealousy, frustration, bitterness...whatever, but snow brings out the best and worst in people depending on whether or not they get snow at their location.

 

Another thing...in my area, our longtime average is about one, 12' snow per decade. Having been born in 1965, I experienced foot-plus snows in '78,  '79, and '83. 3 large storms in 18 years. I then went another decade until the Superstorm of '93 dropped 18" in Lancaster. That started an unprecedented stretch of major snows in '96, '03, and 3 more in '09-'10. That's 6 more in 17 years...which is WAY above what I should even dream of expecting. Problem is, many on this board have "grown up" during this stretch in areas like NYC and Philly that don't understand that what they've grown up with is NOT typical. We have a bunch of spoiled people in some of our neighboring forums that expect a 2' snowstorm several times a winter. And when it doesn't happen, it further pisses off people that haven't had any such storms in years, which is understandable. 

 

At any rate, for those that care...Eric Horst said that from the 12th (Thursday) to the 19th will define our winter down here. He's saying we have near-record cold and multiple snow threats in this period. Let's see what happens...

 

Well said.....

 

like many/most here in the winter...i/we like snow, but just because my back yard doesnt have 12"+ on the meter from Nov-March, doesnt make me get down on it and cry over it.  Its the freakin weather anyone that know anything about it, should know that just because you live in a certain local in PA or surrounding states...you are still not entitled to anything.  NYC to Boston....good for you.  last year south of the mason dixon...fantastic march.  

 

Last week the rockies were in the 70's....

 

If memory serves whistler had snow problems for the Olympics.  

 

Just cause you see pics on TV of mounds of snow....noone is reporting how little snow is in other parts of the country, and I do not want to see those pics.  I'll take what i got and be happy.

 

Nut

 

 

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Watch this weekend's inverted trough carefully. Could be a narrow band of prolonged light-to-moderate snow somewhere in PA. Wherever that inverted trough sets up could see a "surprise" 4-6 inches, especially with good ratios.

The 12z GFS would be a nice NORLUN event. Great low level flow of Atlantic moisture into the zone of low level convergence and elevated lapse rates.
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I think the negativity stems from not getting something that people think they're entitled to. When nearby cities get hit with huge snowfalls that miss them, they feel as if they were slighted somehow. When it happens repeatedly, the angst only multiplies. Call it jealousy, frustration, bitterness...whatever, but snow brings out the best and worst in people depending on whether or not they get snow at their location.

 

Another thing...in my area, our longtime average is about one, 12' snow per decade. Having been born in 1965, I experienced foot-plus snows in '78,  '79, and '83. 3 large storms in 18 years. I then went another decade until the Superstorm of '93 dropped 18" in Lancaster. That started an unprecedented stretch of major snows in '96, '03, and 3 more in '09-'10. That's 6 more in 17 years...which is WAY above what I should even dream of expecting. Problem is, many on this board have "grown up" during this stretch in areas like NYC and Philly that don't understand that what they've grown up with is NOT typical. We have a bunch of spoiled people in some of our neighboring forums that expect a 2' snowstorm several times a winter. And when it doesn't happen, it further pisses off people that haven't had any such storms in years, which is understandable. 

 

At any rate, for those that care...Eric Horst said that from the 12th (Thursday) to the 19th will define our winter down here. He's saying we have near-record cold and multiple snow threats in this period. Let's see what happens...

great post my friend

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These storms are kind of like snow/sex you get promised 4 days out that your going to get some. And at the last minute you get told....whoah never mind, event canceled. Who wouldn't be disappointed?Sheesh

Hey at least we have some snow events heading our way.

Everyone who shares their thoughts on the storms, your thoughts are much appreciated!!!

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Exactly!

 

As for next week's storm... it's really quite a ways a way still, but I'm actually concerned (again) about warmth...

 

Hearing that HM is talking about NAO trending to the minus side.  Watch....we'll get a full on -NAO for the spring.  

 

 

Me - I'll take blocking for $1000.00 please.....

 

Mr. Sajak - I'm sorry...blocking isn't one of the options

 

Nut

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Where can I find said forecast??? Oh wait, Denver, Colorado.... :angry:

Ha! Funny you should mention Denver. My son is spending his first "winter" in Denver and so have been following their weather pretty closely. I used to live there myself and really can't believe how incredibly mild it's been out there. Wild temperature swings are nothing new for Denver, but for them to be this mild for such an extended period is unheard of.

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I think until this pattern shifts, you have to believe that the weather will bring the warmth. Joe was right.

 

Generally agree, however with the projected cold for the next 10 days any precip should have some excellent ratios - probably in the 20:1 range. So it won't take a wound up low to give us some decent totals. Decent to me at this point is 3".

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FRIDAY WILL LIKELY BE ONE OF THE COLDEST DAYS OF THE WINTER

SEASON SO FAR WITH ANOMALOUSLY LOW GEFS MEAN 925 MB TEMPS OF ARND

-18C = -0.4 F LIKELY SUPPORTING HIGH TEMPS NO BETTER THAN THE SINGLE

DIGITS ACROSS THE NORTHERN MTNS...TO THE UPPER TEENS ACROSS THE

SOUTHERN VALLEYS.

http://forecast.weather.gov/product.php?site=CTP&issuedby=CTP&product=AFD&format=CI&version=1&glossary=1&highlight=off

Saturday's storm

post-2236-0-72139900-1423658191_thumb.jp

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FRIDAY WILL LIKELY BE ONE OF THE COLDEST DAYS OF THE WINTER

SEASON SO FAR WITH ANOMALOUSLY LOW GEFS MEAN 925 MB TEMPS OF ARND

-18C = -0.4 F LIKELY SUPPORTING HIGH TEMPS NO BETTER THAN THE SINGLE

DIGITS ACROSS THE NORTHERN MTNS...TO THE UPPER TEENS ACROSS THE

SOUTHERN VALLEYS.

http://forecast.weather.gov/product.php?site=CTP&issuedby=CTP&product=AFD&format=CI&version=1&glossary=1&highlight=off

Saturday's storm

yet Sunday/Monday will be colder...

 

I think the worst part about the forecast for the next 5 days (Thursday through Monday) is how windy it will be for such a long duration...value wise temperatures may not hit record cold numbers at locations with long term records but wind chills for the next few days are just going to be brutal.  Would not surprise me to see schools with at least delays Friday and Monday due to the cold. 

 

We would probably be looking at highs and lows 5-10 degrees colder if this airmass moved through in mid-January than mid-February.  Having the 1000-500mb thickness drop below 500dm Sunday morning is 4 standard deviations below normal compared to climatology!

 

Current top 10 highs in 2015 for MDT - 49, 43, 42, 42, 41, 41, 40, 40, 39, 39

 

It is silly and really does not mean much but here are the current rankings for latest first 50 degree day in a calendar year for Harrisburg:

1963 (March 10), 1968 (March 4), 1941 (March 3), 1923 (March 2), 1987 (March 1), 1910/1902/1895 (Feb 27), 1936 (Feb 25), 1958 (Feb 24), 1994/1971 (Feb 18), 1948/1912 (Feb 17), 1945/1918 (Feb 12), 2015/1977 (Feb 11)

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yet Sunday/Monday will be colder...

 

I think the worst part about the forecast for the next 5 days (Thursday through Monday) is how windy it will be for such a long duration...value wise temperatures may not hit record cold numbers at locations with long term records but wind chills for the next few days are just going to be brutal.  Would not surprise me to see schools with at least delays Friday and Monday due to the cold. 

 

We would probably be looking at highs and lows 5-10 degrees colder if this airmass moved through in mid-January than mid-February.  Having the 1000-500mb thickness drop below 500dm Sunday morning is 4 standard deviations below normal compared to climatology!

 

Current top 10 highs in 2015 for MDT - 49, 43, 42, 42, 41, 41, 40, 40, 39, 39

 

It is silly and really does not mean much but here are the current rankings for latest first 50 degree day in a calendar year for Harrisburg:

1963 (March 10), 1968 (March 4), 1941 (March 3), 1923 (March 2), 1987 (March 1), 1910/1902/1895 (Feb 27), 1936 (Feb 25), 1958 (Feb 24), 1994/1971 (Feb 18), 1948/1912 (Feb 17), 1945/1918 (Feb 12), 2015/1977 (Feb 11)

Monday just looks down right vodka cold. I'm not sure if i'm looking at that right but it looks like -3. and that doesn't take into count for wind chill does it?

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