NortheastPAWx Posted February 9, 2015 Share Posted February 9, 2015 Jebman's post in the Mid-Atlantic Chamber of Despair thread tho (the one at the New England poster) Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
AlexP Posted February 9, 2015 Share Posted February 9, 2015 Things are getting very icy out there. The walkway to my car is a skating rink. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Voyager Posted February 10, 2015 Share Posted February 10, 2015 Jebman's post in the Mid-Atlantic Chamber of Despair thread tho (the one at the New England poster) I laughed at it, but anyone who posts a tirade like that, over a lack of snow, has issues. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MAG5035 Posted February 10, 2015 Share Posted February 10, 2015 Winter is long from over folks. No reason to panic. This storm threat was for freezing rain for the past 3 or 4 days. Next snow threat is Thursday, then Sunday, and then next week Tuesday-Wednesday potential overrruner. Meanwhile all models are cold. Great pattern. I was never really enamored with this weekend event when models shifted that baroclinic zone to the north of the area prior to it. Best precip and forcing was always going to be at and north of that boundary. Where we had our chance was if it pressed south early enough during this last wave to allow available precip to change to snow and accumulate. Really the only model that offered that swath of snow through the middle and east central part of the state was the Euro. Models like the GFS and NAM always kept any snow in the far NE of PA a couple days leading up to the storm. I did think the north had a shot of something.. but the true boundary of arctic air near the state line was too slow to press into the state. Just didn't work out in a setup that really didn't particularly favor PA to begin with. Thursday is an SNE storm so scratch that one off the list right now. Not feeling the weekend either...that has the makings of a 95 bomb and a fringejob here. In any event, things are icing up here with FZDZ. Both the Thursday and weekend northern stream waves will likely have swaths of snow running through PA to some degree. As for being affected by bombing off the coast Thursday, yea probably not... we just aren't positioned right being on the front side of the trough. We'll get the initial wave but the bombing out will favor eastern New England... just the reality of the situation. I think the Saturday wave has more potential snow wise, it puts a very dynamic sub 510 500mb low over us on the GFS/Euro. Could be a feisty clipper with a decent snow swath and good ratios. Not gonna touch the event after that yet.. its still there though. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MillvilleWx Posted February 10, 2015 Share Posted February 10, 2015 The walk to my house from the parking lot 50 feet away was an adventure this evening 27/26 at Millersville Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
djr5001 Posted February 10, 2015 Share Posted February 10, 2015 Been snowing at my house for a good hour now Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Itstrainingtime Posted February 10, 2015 Share Posted February 10, 2015 Had someone at work break their shoulder while walking to their car this evening. I like our chances for snow on Saturday with clipper #2. Some cold powder would be nice! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
pirates21 Posted February 10, 2015 Share Posted February 10, 2015 More like a NYC and SNE bomb. I'm not quite confident that Philly, Baltimore, and DC will get in on that one. Rayno says it could be another NE bomb alright. Possibly a blizzard. You have got to be freakin kidding me. We can barely muster an inch and New Eng just keeps getting pounded. I wonder how many snow lovers up there are getting sick of it now? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
canderson Posted February 10, 2015 Share Posted February 10, 2015 Had someone at work break their shoulder while walking to their car this evening. I like our chances for snow on Saturday with clipper #2. Some cold powder would be nice! Ouch! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mahantango#1 Posted February 10, 2015 Share Posted February 10, 2015 Been snowing here since 5:00pm closing in on 1.5 in. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
canderson Posted February 10, 2015 Share Posted February 10, 2015 Didn't know it was snowing. Surfaces all covered, even main roads. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Itunis Posted February 10, 2015 Share Posted February 10, 2015 Some very light snow here, a light coating on cars. Snowpack took a beating the last couple days though. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CarlislePaWx Posted February 10, 2015 Share Posted February 10, 2015 Didn't know it was snowing. Surfaces all covered, even main roads. When I came home from work in Mechanicsburg back around 7:00 the precip had changed to snow grains which accumulated all over my car. I checked to see if it was sleet, but they looked like tiny white pellets of fertilizer. That was the transition over to snow on my way home to Carlisle. When I arrived home around 7:30 it was snowing and beginning to stick everywhere with maybe 0.1" of accumulation. I didn't think much about it until a few minutes ago when I thought I would check out back on my board and to my amazement, big fat flakes were falling and I had accumulated a whole inch of snow! Yay snow...a whole inch....woohoo. Okay, I was truly surprised since the radar didn't look that dramatic at the time. Now, everything is white again and looks nice. Temp down to 28.4 degrees. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Blizzard of 93 Posted February 10, 2015 Share Posted February 10, 2015 It's been snowing light but steady in Marysville for about the 3 hours. All surfaces covered and have to be ballpark of 1 inch thus far. Hopefully MDT can produce a few tenths of an inch to get us over the 18 inch mark for the season and keep us near normal for the season to date. With all of the storms over the last few weeks that have underperformed, it's hard to believe that we still are still on pace for average climo snow. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MAG5035 Posted February 10, 2015 Share Posted February 10, 2015 Full changeover and dive-bombing huge flakes now..right on the edge of heavier echoes. You guys further east might wanna keep an eye on the area of precip moving thru the south central counties. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
pawatch Posted February 10, 2015 Share Posted February 10, 2015 Didn't know it was snowing. Surfaces all covered, even main roads.Radar did look pretty good down your way.http://weather.cod.edu/satrad/nexrad/index.php?type=CCX-N0Q-0-6# Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Blizzard of 93 Posted February 10, 2015 Share Posted February 10, 2015 MAG, you made a great call ! Steady snow continues here in Marysville. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Scummyratguy Posted February 10, 2015 Share Posted February 10, 2015 Dangit. After all this back talk, I just fell outside walking our bulldog and tweaked that spot that's been bugging me for a year. Light snow and a dusting in York. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MillvilleWx Posted February 10, 2015 Share Posted February 10, 2015 Dangit. After all this back talk, I just fell outside walking our bulldog and tweaked that spot that's been bugging me for a year. Light snow and a dusting in York.Ouch. Take care of yourself and watch those steps out there. It's pretty nasty. Heating pad and window watching for me tonight. I'm not stepping foot out that door with the shape I'm in. Nice call Mag. Eric and I were talking about this happening earlier this afternoon. Good eye. Love when meteorology comes together like this. Light snow 25/24 at the Ville. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Rick G Posted February 10, 2015 Share Posted February 10, 2015 Dangit. After all this back talk, I just fell outside walking our bulldog and tweaked that spot that's been bugging me for a year. Light snow and a dusting in York ice it tonight and hot showers later. hot bath if you can get in and more importantly out. motrirn for the pain. if it doesn't get better get it checked. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MAG5035 Posted February 10, 2015 Share Posted February 10, 2015 GFS continues to bring the house behind that weekend clipper. Whole state under 492 thickness at hour 132. 850 temps are less than -30ºC in portions of western PA and below -25ºC elsewhere in the state. We had a couple shots of that magnitude last winter but I believe they were in January. That might be getting toward record level considering mid Feb climo is back on the upswing temp-wise. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CarlislePaWx Posted February 10, 2015 Share Posted February 10, 2015 Ended up with 1.3" average accumulation from tonight. Earlier today I recorded 0.05" of rain. Turns out tonight's 1.3" of snow had the highest ratio of my entire season. Melted down to just 0.07" and produced a ratio of 18.5 : 1. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Voyager Posted February 10, 2015 Share Posted February 10, 2015 1.5" here. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Santa Clause Posted February 10, 2015 Share Posted February 10, 2015 Next two threats are less than favorable as pointed out by psu, not really wanting redevelopers when you live in PA. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
pawatch Posted February 10, 2015 Share Posted February 10, 2015 Next two threats are less than favorable as pointed out by psu, not really wanting redevelopers when you live in PA.Wow Thursdays threat looks like some area's in central Pa gets dry slotted. Overall it doesn't look like all that much moisture. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WmsptWx Posted February 10, 2015 Author Share Posted February 10, 2015 OMG the negativity and butthurt going on here is overwhelming. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
heavy_wx Posted February 10, 2015 Share Posted February 10, 2015 GFS continues to bring the house behind that weekend clipper. Whole state under 492 thickness at hour 132. 850 temps are less than -30ºC in portions of western PA and below -25ºC elsewhere in the state. We had a couple shots of that magnitude last winter but I believe they were in January. That might be getting toward record level considering mid Feb climo is back on the upswing temp-wise. The 00z Euro is not as cold, only getting 850 mb temperatures down to -26C in the NW part of the state by 18z Sunday. I suspect (and hope) the GFS will back off on those sub -30C temperatures as we get closer to Sunday. Friday's forecast from a few days ago initially looked like it would a similar magnitude of cold; now the models are suggests 850 mb temperatures will be between -20 and -22C. I also think we should still watch the potential clipper/re-developer this weekend. There's a decent signal on guidance for an inverted trough to develop from the decaying primary low and intensifying secondary low. Those features will not be completely resolved spatially by the global models and thus QPF will be under-forecast. Also, snow growth and detailed crystal habit collection efficiencies in aggregation are poorly treated in operational model physics. A situation with solid lift in the dendritic growth zone can therefore lead to negative biases in model QPF as well. Of course, this being a mesoscale feature with a fair amount of spread in the ensemble guidance, confidence should still be pretty low for this scenario. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
heavy_wx Posted February 10, 2015 Share Posted February 10, 2015 OMG the negativity and butthurt going on here is overwhelming. It is strange considering most of us have had near or above normal snowfall to date. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
djr5001 Posted February 10, 2015 Share Posted February 10, 2015 The 00z Euro is not as cold, only getting 850 mb temperatures down to -26C in the NW part of the state by 18z Sunday. I suspect (and hope) the GFS will back off on those sub -30C temperatures as we get closer to Sunday. Friday's forecast from a few days ago initially looked like it would a similar magnitude of cold; now the models are suggests 850 mb temperatures will be between -20 and -22C. I also think we should still watch the potential clipper/re-developer this weekend. There's a decent signal on guidance for an inverted trough to develop from the decaying primary low and intensifying secondary low. Those features will not be completely resolved spatially by the global models and thus QPF will be under-forecast. Also, snow growth and detailed crystal habit collection efficiencies in aggregation are poorly treated in operational model physics. A situation with solid lift in the dendritic growth zone can therefore lead to negative biases in model QPF as well. Of course, this being a mesoscale feature with a fair amount of spread in the ensemble guidance, confidence should still be pretty low for this scenario. GFS has done fairly well in terms of 850mb temps with the cold shots this winter, just drops off surface temps too quickly with these cold shots coming and going so quickly before a true bitter cold air mass settles in. That 0z run from last night would be nasty if it were to actually verify. Drops the -28C line just south of Harrisburg, 490dm 1000-500mb thickness, and 30-35 mph winds sustained... talk about wind chill lol Harrisburg record low for Sunday is -2F, record lowest high is 13F, record low for Monday is 0F, record lowest high is 9F... of those Monday low has best shot of any of those but with the wind I don't think we get there Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
pasnownut Posted February 10, 2015 Share Posted February 10, 2015 It is strange considering most of us have had near or above normal snowfall to date. Its the internet syndrome...everyone wants everything all the time, in an instants notice...and when it doesnt happen, they cry in their milk and wish for warm sunny....(and someone even said HUMID) days....good grief. Maybe I'll come on in the summer and pray for cold windy snowy days just to bug those who love the warmth so much... edit.....the reality is that i wouldnt do that because i dont expect it at those times and find things to do to pass the time until I get my fix of snow and cold. this winter hasnt been great but it hasnt been terrible either....and thats coming from a guy who lives in the ultimate Pa jipzone. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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