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Central PA & the fringes - January 2015 Part III


WmsptWx

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NAM scored a coup here, so basically my take away is choose which ever model has the least interesting weather in it's solution.

 

Yep, it certainly did.  Back on Friday afternoon I made a post comparing the GFS's nearly half-inch of liquid for this entire event vs. the NAM's 0.08" at MDT.  So far I have received 0.04" of rainfall for the event.

 

Congrats, NAM.  Euro....bleh.

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Winter is long from over folks. No reason to panic. This storm threat was for freezing rain for the past 3 or 4 days. 

 

Next snow threat is Thursday, then Sunday, and then next week Tuesday-Wednesday potential overrruner. Meanwhile all models are cold. Great pattern.

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Starting to observe a changeover beginning with the area of precip trying to come up from the southwest. Might be enough for a full changeover and pity coating but looks like bulk is sliding south. 

 

Full changeover and dive-bombing huge flakes now..right on the edge of heavier echoes. You guys further east might wanna keep an eye on the area of precip moving thru the south central counties. 

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Winter is long from over folks. No reason to panic. This storm threat was for freezing rain for the past 3 or 4 days. 

 

Next snow threat is Thursday, then Sunday, and then next week Tuesday-Wednesday potential overrruner. Meanwhile all models are cold. Great pattern.

I think we will cash in here eventually.  We are really in the meat of the snow season in true Central PA...60-65% of the 12"+ storms in State College have come after 2/1.

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Full changeover and dive-bombing huge flakes now..right on the edge of heavier echoes. You guys further east might wanna keep an eye on the area of precip moving thru the south central counties.

Was watching that blossom earlier out in Ohio - HRRR radar has done a nice job showing it remaining south of UNV. Really looks like this is over for us here. Am still above freezing at 35.
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Winter is long from over folks. No reason to panic. This storm threat was for freezing rain for the past 3 or 4 days. 

 

Next snow threat is Thursday, then Sunday, and then next week Tuesday-Wednesday potential overrruner. Meanwhile all models are cold. Great pattern.

Thursday is an SNE storm so scratch that one off the list right now. Not feeling the weekend either...that has the makings of a 95 bomb and a fringejob here.

 

In any event, things are icing up here with FZDZ.

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Am ready to call this a complete and total bust for UNV - not only for precip types, but total precip for the event.

 

I got a laughable 0.12" of precip here. About 50-50 sleet/freezing rain here as best as I can tell as I was out trucking today.

 

Never changed over to anything wintry. All rain.

 

We were already down to 32 when I left my house this morning at 4:00am. Up in Hazleton (Humboldt) it was already down to 28 and icing up.

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Thursday is an SNE storm so scratch that one off the list right now. Not feeling the weekend either...that has the makings of a 95 bomb and a fringejob here.

 

In any event, things are icing up here with FZDZ.

More like a NYC and SNE bomb. I'm not quite confident that Philly, Baltimore, and DC will get in on that one.

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