Voyager Posted February 7, 2015 Share Posted February 7, 2015 And that's despite their map showing us in the 6-8" zone...something doesn't add up here. I noticed that. They seem quite bullish. Of course CTP hasn't updated yet. Extrapolating BGM's totals from southern Luzerne, I'm close to being in the 6-8 inch zone as well. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
kerplunk Posted February 7, 2015 Share Posted February 7, 2015 Thanks! At least it doesn't appear to be much ice. Seems that this season you can't really put much faith in anything out past 15 hours - especially with this one. Looks to be a very tricky forecast for precip type. What a great year to finally decide to try and get familiar with the models. Have always relied on others to comment and post about them. So now that I'm looking at the Euro and GFS for myself, am finding little accuracy beyond telegraphing something is coming. Totally realize the fun is in looking out 240 hours to see what may be coming along and then eagerly anticipating each successive model run to fully enjoy the roller coaster ride. But will probably end up just going back to letting the "advance scouts" herald impending Armageddon and only pay close attention to the HRRR. Much less stressful. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NortheastPAWx Posted February 7, 2015 Share Posted February 7, 2015 Starting to get a little concerned that the models are seemingly advertising more ice up here with every run... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
pawatch Posted February 7, 2015 Share Posted February 7, 2015 Sure has been a fun season watching these models struggle said no one. :-) http://www.spia-index.com/spia-images/wfoTotalNE_USIce.png Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
pawatch Posted February 7, 2015 Share Posted February 7, 2015 Appears GFS has come south. http://www.txtornado.net/GFS/new_slp_gfs_00z.htm# http://www.txtornado.net/GFS/new_slp_gfs_12z.htm# As has the NAM http://www.txtornado.net/NAM/new_slp_nam_00z.htm# http://www.txtornado.net/NAM/new_slp_nam_12z.htm# Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
pawatch Posted February 7, 2015 Share Posted February 7, 2015 Change for the better. Most models are moving south. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Blizz Posted February 7, 2015 Share Posted February 7, 2015 12z Euro is better for a lot of people Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WmsptWx Posted February 7, 2015 Author Share Posted February 7, 2015 Change we can believe in. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
kerplunk Posted February 7, 2015 Share Posted February 7, 2015 12z Euro is better for a lot of people Yes, way better for UNV - 12z Euro takes us from previous 2" to 4.8" with no ice. Gotta like the trend. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
2001kx Posted February 7, 2015 Share Posted February 7, 2015 Yes, way better for UNV - 12z Euro takes us from previous 2" to 4.8" with no ice. Gotta like the trend. Is it a trend or does it stop here? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Blizzard of 93 Posted February 7, 2015 Share Posted February 7, 2015 weatherbell snow map had MDT at 4 in. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
kerplunk Posted February 7, 2015 Share Posted February 7, 2015 Is it a trend or does it stop here? Well, the previous 2" was up from the run before that (1"), so seems to be a trend. Round and round she goes....where it stops.... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Santa Clause Posted February 7, 2015 Share Posted February 7, 2015 Kerplunk do you have IPT numbers? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
djr5001 Posted February 7, 2015 Share Posted February 7, 2015 Kerplunk do you have IPT numbers? from 12z Euro? between .6-.7" but over 24-36 hours so rates fairly light. Would struggle to get temps cold enough to accumulate right away. Greatest 6 hour total is only .15" Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Santa Clause Posted February 7, 2015 Share Posted February 7, 2015 Is that snow? How does he have snow total for UNV? Thanks for digits BTW djr!!! Still think you need an orange tag! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
pirates21 Posted February 7, 2015 Share Posted February 7, 2015 Its gonna be way to warm for any accumulating snow in Altoona or south until late Monday. Its 48 here now and suppose to be warmer tomorrow. Forcast high for Mon at 38. Things better turn colder pretty quick if we're to see snow in this area Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
kerplunk Posted February 7, 2015 Share Posted February 7, 2015 The total Precip is .72 - once it changes over to snow the ratio ranges from 11-14:1. Snow over final accumulating three 6 hour periods is 1.8, 2.3,and 0.7, respectively. KIPT is total 5.6" with a longer duration than UNV. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MillvilleWx Posted February 7, 2015 Share Posted February 7, 2015 After reading the Model diagnostics from WPC, they seem to be siding with the Euro and GFS as the best representation of the upper level flow coming into the west coast and approaching the east coast by tomorrow. Each model is starting to hone in on the best axis of precipitation for the Northeast and it looks like the first round will be too far to the north to affect the Commonwealth with any substantial precipitation. The best frontogenesis looks to setup in southern NYS with a good axis of precipitation breaking out ahead of the warm frontal boundary lifting off to the north. The northern tier of PA could see a brief period of snow followed by a change to mixed precipitation as the mid levels go above freezing for the entire region. The second wave, or main area of low pressure will be what affects the region on Sunday night into Monday. The low pressure will traverse east across the plains tomorrow and make its way toward the east coast. Guidance shows the surface low advancing southeast once it reaches the Ohio Valley and will transfer its energy to the Mid Atlantic coast. At that same juncture, there will be an cold frontal boundary pushing back south across the northern tier into CPA during Monday morning. How far south this boundary makes it and how quickly will determine how much snow will fall across the state. The entire state will be located in the left exit region of the main jet core on Monday morning which should provide enough upper level divergence to breakout another steady precipitation shield starting in WPA and advancing eastward. The best area of lift coupled with the frontal boundary looks to remain along the I80 corridor and to the north. To the south in the LSV, it might be too late for any significant accumulation (4+"), but some areas if they get a small banding structure could receive a coating-2" with the max potential located around northern Dauphin, Perry and Cumberland counties. The areas of the best combination of lift and timing associated with the frontal boundary look decent for 1-4" with NE PA being in line for 3-6+" based upon a longer duration of QPF from the overrunning feature and developing coastal. Don't be shocked if counties like York and Lancaster get the short end of the stick once the energy transfer begins to take place since historically this is where the precip gets split up due to a Miller B type transfer. With that being said, here are my ideas for snowfall accumulation for parts of the forum: UNV: 1-4" IPT: 1-4" THV: T-1" LNS: T-1" ABE: C-2" Poconos: 2-4" AOO: C-2" JST: 1-3" AVP: 2-5" Far NE PA: 3-6" Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Santa Clause Posted February 7, 2015 Share Posted February 7, 2015 Sloppy inch or two looks like a good forecast for most, GFS offers up maybe a 2 or 3 incher. A waste with of 1" of precip being shown, I'm guessing over a half inch falls as rain? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Voyager Posted February 7, 2015 Share Posted February 7, 2015 Looks like the 18z suite (NAM and GFS ticked north again. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Santa Clause Posted February 7, 2015 Share Posted February 7, 2015 Ehhh comparing the profiles they're about the same. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MillvilleWx Posted February 7, 2015 Share Posted February 7, 2015 Looks like the 18z suite (NAM and GFS ticked north again. I agree with the NAM ticking northward a bit, but it was too amplified to begin with the main low pressure and height falls downstream per WPC. It's come more in line with the GFS and Euro from this afternoon. The GFS may have ever so slightly ticked north, but the QPF expansion on Monday afternoon/evening actually looks better than its previous run. Just splitting hairs at this point. I think the main depiction is starting to appear right before our very eyes. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
easternsnowman Posted February 7, 2015 Share Posted February 7, 2015 Looks like the 18z suite (NAM and GFS ticked north again. Not really Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
kerplunk Posted February 7, 2015 Share Posted February 7, 2015 WJAC News at 6 didn't even lead with a snow teaser - their big story seemed to be the cold coming later in the week. Will be interesting to watch their forecast. EDIT: They mentioned rain, sleet, and freezing rain to snow, but completely avoided any mention of possible accumulations. Pretty unusual. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
canderson Posted February 7, 2015 Share Posted February 7, 2015 FWIW CTP has no mention of snow in my grid forecast until Monday night. And that's a chance (50%) And less than .10 of precip. The rest is all rain. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MAG5035 Posted February 7, 2015 Share Posted February 7, 2015 I agree with the NAM ticking northward a bit, but it was too amplified to begin with the main low pressure and height falls downstream per WPC. It's come more in line with the GFS and Euro from this afternoon. The GFS may have ever so slightly ticked north, but the QPF expansion on Monday afternoon/evening actually looks better than its previous run. Just splitting hairs at this point. I think the main depiction is starting to appear right before our very eyes. I think ultimately what will determine whether or not some of us have salvage a half decent accumulating snowfall from what is generally a tough setup in our position is how fast things cool enough to allow snow to fall. 850 temps start pretty marginal and eventually cool enough to snow with the 850 low meandering overhead. GFS snowmaps have been particiularly adamant about keeping anything accumulating in far NE PA and the somewhat colder Euro allows for that second region of snowfall to blossom across the middle of the state. It's going to be pretty close, and a likely messy transition period. Probably going to be some ice to be had as the below freezing temps will be first bleeding in at the surface and 925 levels. Any potential noteworthy snow accums would certainly favor the north central/NE/ and perhaps the higher Laurels portions of PA. I could see it going either way at this point...ending up as a mostly rain to perhaps snow showers type deal for most or a quicker transition and perhaps thump of wet snow. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Voyager Posted February 7, 2015 Share Posted February 7, 2015 Ehhh comparing the profiles they're about the same. The GFS may have ever so slightly ticked north, but the QPF expansion on Monday afternoon/evening actually looks better than its previous run. Just splitting hairs at this point. Not really Yeah, I was actually implying that the snow shield ticked north. I should have been clearer. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Voyager Posted February 7, 2015 Share Posted February 7, 2015 According to the Plymouth State soundings from the 18z runs, on the NAM I'm below freezing at the surface by 1:00am on Monday and on the GFS by 7:00am. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
pirates21 Posted February 7, 2015 Share Posted February 7, 2015 I think ultimately what will determine whether or not some of us have salvage a half decent accumulating snowfall from what is generally a tough setup in our position is how fast things cool enough to allow snow to fall. 850 temps start pretty marginal and eventually cool enough to snow with the 850 low meandering overhead. GFS snowmaps have been particiularly adamant about keeping anything accumulating in far NE PA and the somewhat colder Euro allows for that second region of snowfall to blossom across the middle of the state. It's going to be pretty close, and a likely messy transition period. Probably going to be some ice to be had as the below freezing temps will be first bleeding in at the surface and 925 levels. Any potential noteworthy snow accums would certainly favor the north central/NE/ and perhaps the higher Laurels portions of PA. I could see it going either way at this point...ending up as a mostly rain to perhaps snow showers type deal for most or a quicker transition and perhaps thump of wet snow. I think your analysis is right on. With the temps up the next couple days I just cant see any real threat of accumulating snow until possibly late Mon afternoon/evening. Looks like plenty of cold air to follow for the upcoming week. Any other snow possibilities for us after Monday??? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Santa Clause Posted February 8, 2015 Share Posted February 8, 2015 I'm expecting rain to meaningless snow showers. Seems to be how we do it in our parts. No advisory worth stuff. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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