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Central PA & the fringes - January 2015 Part III


WmsptWx

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Mag that pic is a keeper....thanks for sharing!

Was looking at the GFS. And it looks like we get precip from 72 - 96 hrs and appears that some of the precipitation will be a mixed bag. The temps look like they are going to be a main concern.

Also I know that tomorrow's runs will probably be totally different.

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Does anyone know when this arctic pattern will break? The GFS keeps it ****ing cold right through the 384 hour period. I could seriously use a thaw with temps in the 50's for a few days.

The only day it gets to 40 is the day of the storm. Then it looks like pretty much next week is in the 20's. With next Friday high showing it staying in the teens.

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Its like incredibly far north, would take a huge shift south for this to work out for any of us lol.

well I just typed a good paragraph and the browser crashed before I could post... lets try this again...

 

Once again the models are struggling with handling high pressure systems in the active pattern.  Similar to the past two potential events, the models show something promising in the 3-6 day range only to take it away in the 2-3 day time frame.  In this case, the models had the high that is set to slide eastward through Canada this weekend in a position to keep a stalled boundary just south of PA and then the high would have been in a position to block and force the digging energy close to the coast.  Well as we get closer to the event, the high in Canada is behind, allowing for this boundary to set up further north and now will not be in a position to keep the digging energy from sliding right out to sea.  Now for the cold air that the models keep projecting for late next week/weekend, we will once again need to depend on positioning and track of a few high pressure systems for it to occur.  Right now I just don't have confidence in this occuring.  While we may end up with below normal temps, I just don't see the level of cold that some are already talking about occuring.  The pattern is just too active to get these shots of cold air to stay in place long enough to get the sustained cold other than a cold morning like this morning occurring other than here and there. 

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well I just typed a good paragraph and the browser crashed before I could post... lets try this again...

 

Once again the models are struggling with handling high pressure systems in the active pattern.  Similar to the past two potential events, the models show something promising in the 3-6 day range only to take it away in the 2-3 day time frame.  In this case, the models had the high that is set to slide eastward through Canada this weekend in a position to keep a stalled boundary just south of PA and then the high would have been in a position to block and force the digging energy close to the coast.  Well as we get closer to the event, the high in Canada is behind, allowing for this boundary to set up further north and now will not be in a position to keep the digging energy from sliding right out to sea.  Now for the cold air that the models keep projecting for late next week/weekend, we will once again need to depend on positioning and track of a few high pressure systems for it to occur.  Right now I just don't have confidence in this occuring.  While we may end up with below normal temps, I just don't see the level of cold that some are already talking about occuring.  The pattern is just too active to get these shots of cold air to stay in place long enough to get the sustained cold other than a cold morning like this morning occurring other than here and there. 

 

I don't know, even the GEFS mean has 850 mb temperatures below -20C into the Mid-atlantic for Friday. Even after that, I would still favor below normal temperatures for a while. Hopefully guidance moderates things as we get closer.

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It is pretty bad, for the third week in a row, we had a big storm 5 days out. once we get inside the 3 day windows, it moves way north and the heaviest  snow goes north. This does wonders for the public confidence. I was at a church meeting last night, and there was a brief discussion regarding the cancellation of Sunday services should it be bad. The  idea was floated about that there would be 18 + inches of snow this weekend. (remember the local group of kiddies from above). 

 

Back to the eroding of public confidence, This goes back to saying that weathermen cannot get a forecast right and they are the only profession that can be wrong and still have jobs. When people start turning from the NWS and going to the Kiddies for weather info, I believe there is a real problem. IT is only a matter of time before they start issuing warnings or even worse ignore warnings from official sources.

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