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Central PA & the fringes - January 2015 Part III


WmsptWx

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snow pack took a hit here today, though only in certain spots... was 42 degrees when I got home around 4... sloped surfaces that did not have any snow shoved onto that were exposed to full sun are almost completely bare... the flatter area of my front yard (south facing) is down to 2" on average... the flat and more shaded area behind my house averages 3.5"... the 2" spots melted down to about .90" liquid on average and the 3.5" melted to 1.25" which is greater than I was expecting to still have and why even more didn't melt today. 

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Woke up to a nice 0.25" of snow on everything this morning. A nice band of light snow help blanket some areas in the LSV this morning. Much colder than yesterday from that arctic front. Windy conditions will be common all day today with low wind chills. Temps should hold steady/fall throughout the day as colder air advects from the NNW. It'll be a chilly one tonight with clearing skies and diminishing winds.

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Doesn't really sound like they have much confidence in the models right now.

http://www.hpc.ncep.noaa.gov/discussions/hpcdiscussions.php?disc=pmdhmd

ENSEMBLE GUIDANCE MAY NO LONGER BE RELEVANT. THE

00Z ECMWF REMAINS FAST AND WEAK. FOR THE TIME BEING, PREFER A

SOLUTION MOST SIMILAR TO A 00Z GFS/00Z UKMET COMPROMISE TO ACCOUNT

FOR THE GROWING CONSENSUS WITH BELOW AVERAGE CONFIDENCE DUE TO

MINIMAL RUN-TO-RUN CONTINUITY OF THE SOME MEMBERS OF THE

DETERMINISTIC GUIDANCE.

Wanted to add, yesterday when I said I was retired I retired at 52. So I'm not quit that old. :-)

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Doesn't really sound like they have much confidence in the models right now.

http://www.hpc.ncep.noaa.gov/discussions/hpcdiscussions.php?disc=pmdhmd

ENSEMBLE GUIDANCE MAY NO LONGER BE RELEVANT. THE

00Z ECMWF REMAINS FAST AND WEAK. FOR THE TIME BEING, PREFER A

SOLUTION MOST SIMILAR TO A 00Z GFS/00Z UKMET COMPROMISE TO ACCOUNT

FOR THE GROWING CONSENSUS WITH BELOW AVERAGE CONFIDENCE DUE TO

MINIMAL RUN-TO-RUN CONTINUITY OF THE SOME MEMBERS OF THE

DETERMINISTIC GUIDANCE.

Wanted to add, yesterday when I said I was retired I retired at 52. So I'm not quit that old. :-)

To me this does not make a lot of sense.  I wonder if they have ECMWF and GFS backwards.  0z GFS run is late to dig energy and kicks it out to sea quciker than any of the other models.  0z GFS and 0z UKMET have two completely different solutions.

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Me too. Pretty much every storm has jumped north 3-4 days out, sometimes but as much as 250 miles. Oh gotta love it!

yep, me 3. No expecations at all. Maybe a chilly rain?

 

BTW happy anniversary of the February 2010 Snowmageddon. Starting today HBG received about 45" snow in 5 days. It was glorious, especially since one of those storms fell on a weekend.

yes sir, a fun couple days

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