WmsptWx Posted February 3, 2015 Author Share Posted February 3, 2015 Euro insists second straight run Sunday and Monday good shot at snow for entire PA. Low tracks to our south off the VA capes. More tracking this week. Good. We need several hundreds of miles of buffer to fight off the north trend. Watch it go south. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Santa Clause Posted February 3, 2015 Share Posted February 3, 2015 Came way north at 12z lol. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
djr5001 Posted February 3, 2015 Share Posted February 3, 2015 Good. We need several hundreds of miles of buffer to fight off the north trend. Watch it go south. UKMET is way south and opposite of GFS/Euro again, though it is at the end of it's range and you can only see hr 120 then jump to 144. Has anyone noticed that temperatures seem to be running significantly warmer both day and night recently? For example, on Saturday I was progged to reach about 20. My actual high was 27. Sunday I was to hit 30, actual was 38. Last night it was supposed to drop to between 5 and 10, I only got down to 15. This has been happening a lot for at least a couple of weeks now. Just wondering what might be behind that. Last winter, it was supposed to be really cold, and it was. In fact there were days and nights we were lower than guidance. I realize that temperatures can be tricky and I never expect the actual to be exactly what is progged...but often lately I've been between 5 and 10 degrees warmer and that seems to be a bit much in my opinion. I'm sitting at 24 now after a forecasted high for today of 22... If looking at MOS output, have to remember that climatology is factored into producing those numbers. When on a stretch weather with well above or well below normal temperatures those numbers tend to bust more than when conditions favor temperatures closer to climatological norms. GFS was showing subzero lows for this morning last week because it had the high that is building today overhead by this morning along with a deep fresh snow pack. Well the deep snow did not happen and the high is still building overhead so winds had remained gusty overnight too. I imagine Friday morning will be similar to this morning with a cold air mass moving in, but winds keeping temperatures from crashing too low. As for the high temps, even though the sun angle is still relatively low, days will full sunshine will still warm nicely. If the overnight low forecast is too cold compared to actual, then the forecast high also factors the lower start and therefore thinks highs may be a few degrees lower than what actually occurs. I really have not looked much this year but GFS really struggled last February with trying to melt our snowicepack which made temperature output goofy. Overestimating or underestimating melting will also cause temperature output to end up off. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NortheastPAWx Posted February 3, 2015 Share Posted February 3, 2015 Only in some certain other subforum will you find bickering over precip types on a storm 130+ hours out. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Santa Clause Posted February 3, 2015 Share Posted February 3, 2015 LOL wonder if it's NYC. So how is this arctic front going to work out? A few models want to bring 1 to 3 over parts of the area with exteme cold to follow. Any experts on this? Djr, MAG, heavywx, Millville and Mallow you're up lol. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Voyager Posted February 3, 2015 Share Posted February 3, 2015 Has anyone noticed that temperatures seem to be running significantly warmer both day and night recently? You literally read my mind maytown. You both read MY mind. I saw that my temp was up to 27 and was going to post about it and here you guys are talking about it. My forecast for yesteday was low 30's and got up to 38. Last night was supposed to be +1 but ended up being 11, and today was supposed to be 20 and we got up to 28. Personally I don't mind, but I do wonder why we've been higher than forecasted lately. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Voyager Posted February 3, 2015 Share Posted February 3, 2015 Only in some certain other subforum will you find bickering over precip types on a storm 130+ hours out. I just went over there and looked, and good God, they are crazy. At this point in time, the only thing (this year anyway) that any model is good for is to indicate that there is potential for a storm. Arguing over a rain/snow line 120+ hours out is borderline insanity. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
pirates21 Posted February 3, 2015 Share Posted February 3, 2015 You mean this? That looks ahhh....very UNinteresting. Going going GONE! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Rick G Posted February 3, 2015 Share Posted February 3, 2015 Only in some certain other subforum will you find bickering over precip types on a storm 130+ hours out. why wait until the last minute? lets get it started here: 3 feet in AVP, 1 inch and all rain everywhere else. I got this because my right foot feels a little warm. If it felt cold, it would meant the opposite. Some people are just weenies... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
pirates21 Posted February 3, 2015 Share Posted February 3, 2015 Looks like the Wed night Thurs storm gives New Eng another 6 -12".....hey New Eng, you won the super bowl and youve had well over 40" of snow since Jan 27. Quit being greedy. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MAG5035 Posted February 3, 2015 Share Posted February 3, 2015 Has anyone noticed that temperatures seem to be running significantly warmer both day and night recently? For example, on Saturday I was progged to reach about 20. My actual high was 27. Sunday I was to hit 30, actual was 38. Last night it was supposed to drop to between 5 and 10, I only got down to 15. This has been happening a lot for at least a couple of weeks now. Just wondering what might be behind that. Last winter, it was supposed to be really cold, and it was. In fact there were days and nights we were lower than guidance. I realize that temperatures can be tricky and I never expect the actual to be exactly what is progged...but often lately I've been between 5 and 10 degrees warmer and that seems to be a bit much in my opinion. I'm sitting at 24 now after a forecasted high for today of 22... While this winter has been fairly cold more often than not, we have not seen the kind of ferocious cold shots we saw last winter that drove deep into the eastern US. To this point last winter, we would've had the historic ice storm in the Deep South and Gulf Coast that turned Atlanta into a parking lot as well as a few snow events that really targeted the I-70 corridor and the Philly Region. It has seemed we have been closer to the gradient this winter. Central and Northern regions have had a fairly decent go of it overall, while the Sus Valley has had a little trouble getting snows but certainly hasn't been a disaster. South of the PA border though has been a different story. LOL wonder if it's NYC. So how is this arctic front going to work out? A few models want to bring 1 to 3 over parts of the area with exteme cold to follow. Any experts on this? Djr, MAG, heavywx, Millville and Mallow you're up lol. I think the possibility's there to have some kind of an area of snowfall develop along the frontal passage with the reinforcing shot of cold behind (perhaps some squalls with frontal passage as well). Surface temps could be an issue for a time in the south tomorrow afternoon though. Seems like a minor 1-3 type deal that mainly favors the west and higher elevations. As for the storm Sun/Monday, def looks like something brewing in that time frame. With the trend as of late I'm suspecting wailing and gnashing of teeth in this region once again with respect to low track and snow vs mixing. I think the gradient is going to be quite close to us once again. Here's hoping for an all snow scenario, this past storm with the mixing and immediately ensuing flash freeze sucked. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
paweather Posted February 3, 2015 Share Posted February 3, 2015 Man what a weird 18z GFS run it snows for like 40 plus hours on this run. South again and just spins around. Got to love these models. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MillvilleWx Posted February 3, 2015 Share Posted February 3, 2015 LOL wonder if it's NYC. So how is this arctic front going to work out? A few models want to bring 1 to 3 over parts of the area with exteme cold to follow. Any experts on this? Djr, MAG, heavywx, Millville and Mallow you're up lol. I think the prospects for 1-3" of snow is in the cards for anyone in the forum located west of I81 until you get up near I80, then the Pocono's and high country in NE PA have a shot as well. The LSV down my way might sneak in a few snow showers, but the opportunity for an accumulation of more than a coating seems more fit to the western counties. A fresh arctic injection will normally lead to precip, especially in the high country along the Allegheny front. Temps will be quite cold behind this shot as well with a nice gradient over the eastern 2/3 of the Commonwealth, so expect windy conditions on Thursday with bone chilling wind chills. I just wish the flow wasn't so progressive and we could lock this in longer with a storm attacking from the south. Instead, we have to hope and pray on timing, which for down here has not been as friendly. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Rick G Posted February 4, 2015 Share Posted February 4, 2015 hello lo lo lo lo lo lo îs anyone here? ere ere ere anyone have any updates on Sunday? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Voyager Posted February 4, 2015 Share Posted February 4, 2015 It's amazing how dead it is in here. The GFS doesn't look bad for at least the northern 2/3 of the state. I know everyone is a bit "model shy" right now, but there's still weather to discuss. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
pawatch Posted February 4, 2015 Share Posted February 4, 2015 Some early morning porn from the GFS gives us a 3 day snow storm. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
pawatch Posted February 4, 2015 Share Posted February 4, 2015 Even though temps look a little warm. Edit: late Tuesday looks like something to watch. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Voyager Posted February 4, 2015 Share Posted February 4, 2015 That 850 map looks a little dicey at that hour, and is too close for comfort for me. I'd have to have another repeat of Monday. I don't care if I get 3 inches or 13 inches as long as it's all snow. I absolutely hate snow to sleet to rain events. They make everything a mess and are extremely hard to clean up. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
pawatch Posted February 4, 2015 Share Posted February 4, 2015 Intresting : THE EAST LOOKS SEASONABLY COOL AND SOMEWHAT WET, WITH THE RAIN-SNOW LINE LIKELY TO SET UP ALONG 40N AS PER MUCH OF THIS WINTER. http://www.hpc.ncep.noaa.gov/discussions/hpcdiscussions.php?disc=pmdepd College Park, MD. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Voyager Posted February 4, 2015 Share Posted February 4, 2015 Pretty much the same thing in our AFD this morning... .LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...THE ARCTIC CHILL IS SHORT-LIVED WITH TEMPS MODERATING BY SAT ONRETURN FLOW WAA. AN ACTIVE BAROCLINIC ZONE IS PROGGED TO SET UPNEAR 40N THIS WEEKEND WITH MULTIPLE WAVES OF LOW PRESSURE ALONGTHE BOUNDARY PROVIDING NUMEROUS OPPORTUNITIES FOR PCPN IN CENTRALPA. UPPER LEVEL TROUGH AMPLIFICATION OVER THE EASTERN U.S. INTOEARLY NEXT WEEK FAVORS MORE UNSETTLED WEATHER. CONTINUED TO TRENDPOPS HIGHER IN THE DAY 4-6 RANGE BUT DETAILS SUCH AS RAIN-SNOWLINE ARE STILL UNCERTAIN...WITH THE SRN HALF OF THE AREA LKLY THEMOST VULNERABLE TO MIXED PCPN. TEMPS SHOULD BE SEASONABLY COOL TONEAR AVG. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
djr5001 Posted February 4, 2015 Share Posted February 4, 2015 It almost looks as if the models are trying to develop some form of stalled out boundary Sun/Mon that a wave of energy dives in behind and rides up the coast. One thing I have been trying to take a good look at yesterday and likely will again today is to see how the models have been handling high pressure systems in the active/progressive pattern. To me so far it looks as if they have tried to move them around too quickly. This allowed for the more northern track earlier this week, lows did not fall as far Tuesday morning because the high was not in place to create calm and clear conditions in time, and right now I am expecting the same to occur for Friday morning. (Really don't think our lows hit single digits around most of LSV for Friday morning) If models are struggling with eastward movement of the high for this weekend then the boundary may lift more to the north and really make it tough to not have mixing issues if the energy arriving Mon/Tues even ends up forced to stay near coast. Would love to hear anyone else's thoughts on this if I am either crazy or possibly on to something. All I know is I am expecting to lose a good bit of my snowcover today which is crazy after thinking on Friday that it could have been deep with chances at subzero temps this week. Certainly not the case now. One other item, I also have noticed some maps with February temperature/precip outlook going around. Keep in mind that while some of those may make it seem like the remainder of February may be well below normal, our normal temperatures are on the rise as well. A map that shows 6-10 degrees below normal for late February may mean highs around 40 degrees instead of upper 40s. While a bit below normal, does not necessarily mean excessive cold. (Check out this 4 panel comparison for 0z run between Canadian/GFS/Euro/UKMET. While you can only see every 24 hours, this is the first time these 4 models have shown any form of agreement for the next few days and through the weekend which I think is rather impressive.) Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
heavy_wx Posted February 4, 2015 Share Posted February 4, 2015 We'll have to watch the train of disturbances over southern Canada. One of those looks like it will amplify, close-off and thus provide significant mid-level confluence, supporting anticyclogenesis over southern Quebec. Where and how strong this zone of confluence sets up will determine the strength and southward extent of the cold, low-level ageostrophic flow. It's very difficult to pinpoint the particular low-amplitude shortwave that may produce light overruning precip over central PA at this lead time. The development of a more significant system offshore will depend on the amplification of the pacific ridge and the phasing of the downstream energy with the northern stream disturbance. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CarlislePaWx Posted February 4, 2015 Share Posted February 4, 2015 djr...regarding your comments about normal high temps...it's not quite as bad regarding temps at the end of this month. Looking at my local NCDC normal chart the normal split for me here in Carlisle for today, 2/4, is 40/21. That only increases to 45/25 by Feb 28th. So a 6-degree departure would be 39/19 to as low as 10 degrees being 35/15. I'm just trying to put a positive spin on the norms during Feb. Did you notice how crazy yesterday's runs from the GFS were later in the period? It kept sending the polar vortex right down into our neck of the woods. Certainly one would think that we here in the LSV are going to catch a big(ger) one before the end of this month. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Voyager Posted February 4, 2015 Share Posted February 4, 2015 The 12z GFS looks somewhat better through 84 hours than the NAM, but it still doesn't getting any truly significant snows south of I-80 during that timeframe. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
paweather Posted February 4, 2015 Share Posted February 4, 2015 12z GFS keeps it cold enough for snow most of PA 0c line running right around PA/MD border. Long event again with low pressure developing around 132hr. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NortheastPAWx Posted February 4, 2015 Share Posted February 4, 2015 I have basically no idea what the setup is or what the trends are supposed to be, but from what I hear we're in a bad position... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
djr5001 Posted February 4, 2015 Share Posted February 4, 2015 djr...regarding your comments about normal high temps...it's not quite as bad regarding temps at the end of this month. Looking at my local NCDC normal chart the normal split for me here in Carlisle for today, 2/4, is 40/21. That only increases to 45/25 by Feb 28th. So a 6-degree departure would be 39/19 to as low as 10 degrees being 35/15. I'm just trying to put a positive spin on the norms during Feb. Did you notice how crazy yesterday's runs from the GFS were later in the period? It kept sending the polar vortex right down into our neck of the woods. Certainly one would think that we here in the LSV are going to catch a big(ger) one before the end of this month. lol past few days GFS has been doing a few things in long range that I don't think follow the laws of physics Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Santa Clause Posted February 4, 2015 Share Posted February 4, 2015 Lol were never in the ideal position PSU, at this point I think we may grind out average though. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
djr5001 Posted February 4, 2015 Share Posted February 4, 2015 12z GFS keeps it cold enough for snow most of PA 0c line running right around PA/MD border. Long event again with low pressure developing around 132hr. It is also keeping a decent snow pack across southeastern tier with over .50" liquid equivalent at MDT/.30" THV/.40" LNS through the weekend... Sun and temps today will put a dent into that today alone Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NortheastPAWx Posted February 4, 2015 Share Posted February 4, 2015 Voyager and I get 2-3' of snow on the GGEM, okay Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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