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Central PA & the fringes - January 2015 Part III


WmsptWx

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Back over to all snow again... back and forth battle. Also got a coating of sleet when that was happening. A look at the CC product shows the all snow pressing back southwest some in the central counties where it had been pressing northeast pretty hard... likely the heavier precip moving in and cooling the column back down. 

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Back over to all snow again... back and forth battle. Also got a coating of sleet when that was happening. A look at the CC product shows the all snow pressing back southwest some in the central counties where it had been pressing northeast pretty hard... likely the heavier precip moving in and cooling the column back down. 

All right, so I'm not going crazy... yet :)

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Hi guys. I thought I would post an observation here. I've been following for a couple years but don't really post. My dad is CarlislePaWx and I go to school here at Penn College in Williamsport.  Still coming down 100% snow.  Measured 2.1" at 12:30 and now at 3.3" as of 1:30. Hoping for at least a couple more hours of this!

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A rimed snow here, but it's pretty much behaving as snow still. Radar suggests the sleet is gradually pushing its way my way, and will probably be here within the next hour or so. Still, we've got a bit over 3" of new snow by my estimation, and everything looks awesome out there.

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4.2" here with mixed precipitation at 4:00am. Eyeballing about 40% snow and 60% sleet. Latest radar shows that we MIGHT be in line for a dry slot in the next hour or two though.

 

Temp at some point after midnight dipped to 29 degrees, but is up to 31 at the moment in my backyard.

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Primary is still dominant in Western PA, but looky here. Big pressure drops off the New Jersey coast. Looks like a transfer is taking place. Not that it'll have any kind of big influence on our forecast, but I'm wondering how long it'll take to pull the 850's back down and flip any remaining precip back over to snow.

 

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Pretty much, the yellow values indicate a lower percentage than the red/pink echoes. Lower percentage indicates the hydrometeors the radar is picking up are different sizes (ie snow mixed with rain/sleet, etc). The red/pink echoes are near 100%, meaning all the hydrometeors are a uniform size (strictly rain/snow).

 

I'm sitting on the northeast edge of the yellows in Blair County, where it's sleet pellets/heavily rimed flakes and large fluffy flakes.

 

Actually, that's a common misconception. Hydrometeors with different sizes but the same aspect ratio sampled by the radar will have a correlation coefficient of 1. Correlation coefficient becomes reduced when there is a diversity in aspect ratios of the hydrometeors (such as oblate rain drops mixed with spherical aggregates). The size comes into play because different size hydrometeors often have different aspect ratios.

 

Correlation coefficient is also reduced in the melting layer because of the diversity in hydrometeor composition (e.g. liquid water vs. ice). There's also another effect from large melting aggregates producing non-Rayleigh scattering (and thus backscatter differential phase), while the smaller particles do not, further increasing the scattering diversity. Essentially, the greater the diversity in hydrometeor shape and composition, the lower correlation coefficient will be.

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Didn't measure before I went to bed last night. I'm guessing we had about 1.5". This morning most roads are pretty clear, sidestreets just have some slush and standing water.

 

I shoveled my sidewalks and there was a thin layer of ice underneath the snow/water mush. I wasn't expecting that and slipped a few times - thankfully never fell! I hope the stuff falling outside now is plain rain and I just didn't turn my entire neighborhood into a NHL arena.

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