WmsptWx Posted January 31, 2015 Share Posted January 31, 2015 Go. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NortheastPAWx Posted January 31, 2015 Share Posted January 31, 2015 Our weather sucks, every storm is either fringe or mix crap, when can I move the hell out of here, time for the banter/complaint thread, etc etc etc. That good to christen us? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Voyager Posted January 31, 2015 Share Posted January 31, 2015 Oops, I started one too. I'll defer to you since you beat me to it. Your thread or mine. I'll delete per what you want. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MAG5035 Posted January 31, 2015 Share Posted January 31, 2015 GFS at hour 60 has 996 low over.. lets say Frederick, MD. Pretty much same as 18z, it's a mason dixon runner. Some mixing likely below the turnpike as 850 0ºC line pokes up to roughly that corridor. Hour 54 was indicating a decent front thump for about all of the Sus Valley. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MAG5035 Posted January 31, 2015 Share Posted January 31, 2015 0z RGEM @ 48 (maybe a tad south of the GFS) Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Voyager Posted January 31, 2015 Share Posted January 31, 2015 Anyone reading the Mid Atlantic forum this evening? There's some sig worthy posts in there this evening... Anyway, from the sound of it, the GFS might still be good for some of us. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
canderson Posted January 31, 2015 Share Posted January 31, 2015 GFS seems to follow the NAM's lead and track north. LSV in shaft zone of heavy rates it looks. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
canderson Posted January 31, 2015 Share Posted January 31, 2015 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
paweather Posted January 31, 2015 Share Posted January 31, 2015 GFS at hour 60 has 996 low over.. lets say Frederick, MD. Pretty much same as 18z, it's a mason dixon runner. Some mixing likely below the turnpike as 850 0ºC line pokes up to roughly that corridor. Hour 54 was indicating a decent front thump for about all of the Sus Valley. Thanks Mag colder again 60 to 63 crashes 0c line I 80 north looking good but feel we get a good thump before a mix Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NortheastPAWx Posted January 31, 2015 Share Posted January 31, 2015 GFS is still a tick further south than the NAM, doesn't take the 850 0 line beyond Allentown. Better run for 80N at least and enough to keep the southern folks with some hope. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CarlislePaWx Posted January 31, 2015 Share Posted January 31, 2015 Personally, I don't think our mood swings today can even compare to those of the midatlantic and nyc subforums. The older I get the easier it gets to exercise restraint in the expectations until like 24 hours out. We all know how much the models vacillate. And even if this one doesn't deliver the 12" amounts from earlier today, the pattern we are in should produce quite a few more substantial opportunities. We're entering February, the snowiest month of the year. Odds are in our favor at least for the next 2 weeks. That having been said, it sure would be nice if the ECM holds serve, or even the GFS for that matter. As for the NAM.....throw it out!! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PennMan Posted January 31, 2015 Share Posted January 31, 2015 Anyone reading the Mid Atlantic forum this evening? There's some sig worthy posts in there this evening... Anyway, from the sound of it, the GFS might still be good for some of us. Still takes the low under the Mason-Dixon line...would be mixing south of Rt 22, probably ok up near I-80. If the I-80 corridor could stay all snow that's a nice 8-12" event. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Mallow Posted January 31, 2015 Share Posted January 31, 2015 Yeah, 00z GFS at 850 is ostensibly the same as the 18z, even though the surface low is a bit stronger (though its track is essentially unchanged). Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jm1220 Posted January 31, 2015 Share Posted January 31, 2015 Still takes the low under the Mason-Dixon line...would be mixing south of Rt 22, probably ok up near I-80. If the I-80 corridor could stay all snow that's a nice 8-12" event. The 850mb low tracks through northern PA, that's very dangerous from I-80 south at least, maybe even up to Williamsport. Could be a strong few hours of snow beforehand though. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Itstrainingtime Posted January 31, 2015 Share Posted January 31, 2015 That there is a southern tier county kick in the groin. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PennMan Posted January 31, 2015 Share Posted January 31, 2015 The 850mb low tracks through northern PA, that's very dangerous from I-80 south at least, maybe even up to Williamsport. Could be a strong few hours of snow beforehand though. Could be one of those situations where heavy precip can delay or halt the progress of the warmer air aloft. A couple hours of sleet wouldn't be the end of the world...just help cement our already impressive snowpack. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CarlislePaWx Posted January 31, 2015 Share Posted January 31, 2015 Heck of a lot more PA real estate at or over 12" mark this run. Almost the entire northern half is at least a foot. Even though I can't precisely find myself, it looks like Cumberland county is in that little area of 6-8". I'm in that little area where the higher amounts to the north dip down toward me. I'll be happy if I get 4". I'd prefer sleet over freezing rain if the mix has to occur. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CarlislePaWx Posted January 31, 2015 Share Posted January 31, 2015 Maybe the queen will become the king again in 2 hours? Anybody have the RGEM maps? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
paweather Posted January 31, 2015 Share Posted January 31, 2015 Heck of a lot more PA real estate at or over 12" mark this run. Almost the entire northern half is at least a foot. Even though I can't precisely find myself, it looks like Cumberland county is in that little area of 6-8". I'm in that little area where the higher amounts to the north dip down toward me. I'll be happy if I get 4". I'd prefer sleet over freezing rain if the mix has to occur. Exactly look at those highs up North Still feel 4 plus for many Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Voyager Posted January 31, 2015 Share Posted January 31, 2015 Even though I can't precisely find myself, it looks like Cumberland county is in that little area of 6-8". Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
canderson Posted January 31, 2015 Share Posted January 31, 2015 Voyager thank you for those maps. They really make it easy to see. What I'd give fir a storm wher we weren't 50 miles from the gradient death line. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CarlislePaWx Posted January 31, 2015 Share Posted January 31, 2015 Boy Voyager, thank you so much too! Looks like my eyeballing was fairly close. Looks like 6-7". Did you all notice that bulleye of around 18" is almost dead center of the state. Wow. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Blizz Posted January 31, 2015 Share Posted January 31, 2015 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CarlislePaWx Posted January 31, 2015 Share Posted January 31, 2015 Can anyone comment on RGEM? Was reading in NYC forum that it ticked slightly south of the 12Z run. Hours 36-48 are like the NAM's 60-72. Edit: map looks sweet still for LSV. There is hope! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
djr5001 Posted January 31, 2015 Share Posted January 31, 2015 UKMET still has low strongest of any model and tracking through PA Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Blizz Posted January 31, 2015 Share Posted January 31, 2015 UKMET still has low strongest of any model and tracking through PA Yes but if it is similar to its 12z run its no less snowy than say the NAM. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MAG5035 Posted January 31, 2015 Share Posted January 31, 2015 UKMET still has low strongest of any model and tracking through PA Yea it's even more wound up than 12z, 989 in extreme eastern Ohio at 60 and down to 983 sitting on Cape Cod @ 72hr Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
pawatch Posted January 31, 2015 Share Posted January 31, 2015 Keep this in mind....from NWS THE PREVAILING SHIFT IN THE 12Z MODELS WAS TO CONTINUE A MORE NORTHERLY TRACK WITH THIS SYSTEM...WHICH IS REFLECTED IN THE WPC FORECAST WHICH WAS WEIGHTED HEAVILY IN THE FINAL GRIDDED SNOW/ICE ACCUMULATIONS. HOWEVER FORECAST CONFIDENCE IS TEMPERED BY THE RUN- TO- RUN INCONSISTENCIES THE MODELS HAVE SHOWN ALONG THE WITH DISTINCT POSSIBILITY THAT THE MODELS MAY REVERSE TRENDS IN SUBSEQUENT RUNS. WITH SEVERAL FORECAST CYCLES COMING UP ANTICIPATE SOME CHANGES REGARDING NUMBERS AND LOCATIONS OF SNOWFALL TOTALS. A SHOT OF ARCTIC AIR IS FORECAST TO SURGE INTO THE AREA BEHIND THE EARLY WEEK STORM WITH POTENTIAL FOR DANGEROUS WIND CHILLS MONDAY NIGHT INTO TUESDAY. THIS COULD ADD TO STORM-RELATED IMPACTS. HIGH PRESSURE SHOULD BRING COLD BUT QUIET WEATHER INTO MIDWEEK. MODELS AND ENSEMBLES SHOW A COASTAL TYPE SYSTEM SOMETIME NEXT WED-FRI BUT IT IS WAY TOO EARLY TO SPECULATE ON THIS SYSTEM. http://forecast.weather.gov/product.php?site=CTP&issuedby=CTP&product=AFD&format=CI&version=1&glossary=1&highlight=off Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CarlislePaWx Posted January 31, 2015 Share Posted January 31, 2015 So now it's the waiting game till Euro? Only 75 minutes to go. Regarding the UKMET...can someone tell us how it models the arctic high to our north? Does it just make it weaker and that allows less suppression from the cold air? I'm just wondering if there is a sound reason to pay attention to its solution. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jm1220 Posted January 31, 2015 Share Posted January 31, 2015 Heck of a lot more PA real estate at or over 12" mark this run. Almost the entire northern half is at least a foot. Even though I can't precisely find myself, it looks like Cumberland county is in that little area of 6-8". I'm in that little area where the higher amounts to the north dip down toward me. I'll be happy if I get 4". I'd prefer sleet over freezing rain if the mix has to occur. Don't pay attention to the snow maps, they might count sleet as snow accumulation. Look at soundings instead and the track of the 850 low. The warm nose looks to be above 850mb, so looking at that level might be deceiving. It might be below zero at 850 but above at 750 and 800mb, meaning sleet. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Recommended Posts
Archived
This topic is now archived and is closed to further replies.