Thundersnow12 Posted January 31, 2015 Share Posted January 31, 2015 Sure would be nice to have ALE's final call. Mine 10.0 on the button. He told me 13" earlier today Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
McDude Posted January 31, 2015 Share Posted January 31, 2015 Why did Alek get suspended? Who's call was that? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chinook Posted January 31, 2015 Share Posted January 31, 2015 I still think it is a little strange that the northern shortwave, right now, is in British Columbia, in a ridge, that is, it is a dimple in a flat 500mb ridge at 558dm, north of the border! It will be interacting with the 1044mb cold high in northern Alberta, with a reasonable temperature gradient. It seems like a relatively less-amazing setup, that will produce an amazing storm in over 24 hrs!!! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hoosier Posted January 31, 2015 Share Posted January 31, 2015 I wish I had 1/2 the confidence you do. Looks to be a rather tight one shaping up for here. Boom or bust. Looks like it's the RGEM vs NAM/GFS in Indy...and here too I guess too. Hopefully we can both pull off the houdini act that IND did with 1/5/2014. Was thinking about that storm a little while ago. IND had thermal questions going in and it ended up breaking favorably. Doesn't mean this one will but at least it's a recent example. Different angle of approach but track of the surface/mid level features is similar to that storm (in this area at least). Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
stormtrackertf Posted January 31, 2015 Share Posted January 31, 2015 Pick your poison. 0z NAM vs GFS snowfall totals... output_UdcDXD.gif Both give me a foot verbatim, so I'll take either or both. Still worried this thing might decide to shoot south at the last minute, but general trends are in my favor. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Baum Posted January 31, 2015 Share Posted January 31, 2015 He told me 13" earlier today Yeah I saw that. But after all the optimism we were due for his ball buster call just to mess with us after tonight's model runs. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Kaner88 Posted January 31, 2015 Share Posted January 31, 2015 Pick your poison. 0z NAM vs GFS snowfall totals... output_UdcDXD.gif You have to feel for the folks in extreme SW Nebraska, stuck between a ~10" forecast and a 2" forecast with just hours until the storm hits. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Harry Perry Posted January 31, 2015 Share Posted January 31, 2015 Hard to throw out my thoughts for accumulations, but thinking 6-10" here. Lower side with dry air implications, higher with minimal saturation issues. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TugHillMatt Posted January 31, 2015 Share Posted January 31, 2015 Last several runs of the NAM's snowfall output looped: namloop.gif Nice comparisons. You can see how the NAM has been working the heaviest snows to the northwest throughout its runs today. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
cyclone77 Posted January 31, 2015 Share Posted January 31, 2015 Haven't gone with an exact forecast amount in awhile. Originally went with 8-11, which may have been a bit overzealous. Then adjusted down to 5-8 after factoring in some rain issues at onset, and that may have been a bit too pessimistic. So I'll just go with 8" for here I guess. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RyanDe680 Posted January 31, 2015 Share Posted January 31, 2015 You have to feel for the folks in extreme SW Nebraska, stuck between a ~10" forecast and a 2" forecast with just hours until the storm hits. lol. Word. Extreme southeastrr NE is either a DAB or 9". Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
nwburbschaser Posted January 31, 2015 Share Posted January 31, 2015 I'll take 8+ on Super Bowl Sunday. I'm not overly optimistic about getting some of the higher end amounts with possible dry air, but a good hit looks to be in order. #FreeAlek Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stebo Posted January 31, 2015 Share Posted January 31, 2015 Pick your poison. 0z NAM vs GFS snowfall totals... output_UdcDXD.gif Interesting that the GFS is a bit more juicy than the nam, usually it is the other way around. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RCNYILWX Posted January 31, 2015 Share Posted January 31, 2015 I have to go with what I forecast today as my first call, so 9.8" here in northeastern Naperville and 10" at ORD. Sent from my SM-G900V using Tapatalk Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
GordoFabulous Posted January 31, 2015 Share Posted January 31, 2015 Was thinking about that storm a little while ago. IND had thermal questions going in and it ended up breaking favorably. Doesn't mean this one will but at least it's a recent example. Different angle of approach but track of the surface/mid level features is similar to that storm (in this area at least). Are the thermal questions related to the classic WAA being underdone? That's what I've been worried about. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BuffaloWeather Posted January 31, 2015 Share Posted January 31, 2015 Interesting that the GFS is a bit more juicy than the nam, usually it is the other way around. 99.5% of the time Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hoosier Posted January 31, 2015 Share Posted January 31, 2015 I have to go with what I forecast today as my first call, so 9.8" here in northeastern Naperville and 10" at ORD. Sent from my SM-G900V I told my mom 12-15" in western Lake county IN. They look to be in a good spot for the synoptic portion and also for lake enhancement/effect. Looking forward to the overnight afd from LOT. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Central Illinois Posted January 31, 2015 Share Posted January 31, 2015 00z GGEM way south Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Harry Perry Posted January 31, 2015 Share Posted January 31, 2015 Interesting that the GFS is a bit more juicy than the nam, usually it is the other way around. The NAM didn't come in as amped at 00z, that'll probably change for tomorrow and The GFS will stick with its guns. I don't think we're done with flip-flopping quite yet... At least it'll be minimal flp-flops. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Snowstorms Posted January 31, 2015 Share Posted January 31, 2015 00z GGEM way south https://weather.gc.ca/data/model_forecast/695_100.gif Its the same as the Nam/GFS. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Gilbertfly Posted January 31, 2015 Share Posted January 31, 2015 I have to go with what I forecast today as my first call, so 9.8" here in northeastern Naperville and 10" at ORD. Sent from my SM-G900V Went with 11 this morning and maybe 1 to 1.5 additional from the plume for MBY...i'll stick with it Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
stormtrackertf Posted January 31, 2015 Share Posted January 31, 2015 00z GGEM way south Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DAFF Posted January 31, 2015 Share Posted January 31, 2015 Interesting that the GFS is a bit more juicy than the nam, usually it is the other way around. This and how the outlier models were picking up on the northern shift before the main players. Make sense with the northern dominate modeling of the GEM explained a few pages back. Some impressive clowns displayed tonight. Plows are waiting !! I hope Lucy is not prepping for her famous half time show. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RCNYILWX Posted January 31, 2015 Share Posted January 31, 2015 I told my mom 12-15" in western Lake county IN. They look to be in a good spot for the synoptic portion and also for lake enhancement/effect. Looking forward to the overnight afd from LOT.I think that area ended up the cwa jackpot pretty much. Might have fallen out as a shade over 11". I'm thinking there's gonna be a pivoting lake band moving through that area early Monday morning. Kinda reminiscent to the grand finale of GHD, though I'm guessing maybe not quite as intense. Though the NAM did show potential for mesolow development which could slow forward progress of the LE band some. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Central Illinois Posted January 31, 2015 Share Posted January 31, 2015 SLP travels from s. Arkansas to ne ky Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Thunder Road Posted January 31, 2015 Share Posted January 31, 2015 00z GGEM way south I'm on mobile right now... This legit? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Snowstorms Posted January 31, 2015 Share Posted January 31, 2015 SLP travels from s. Arkansas to ne ky Edit: Cuts through SE Ohio. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stebo Posted January 31, 2015 Share Posted January 31, 2015 00z GGEM way south You might have wrong date, newest GGEM is definitely not south. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
stormtrackertf Posted January 31, 2015 Share Posted January 31, 2015 You might have wrong date, newest GGEM is definitely not south. I saw some people on uh, another forum saying it was south too. I don't have access to any of the maps, but that's quite a spread of misinformation if it really was the wrong date. Interesting. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
cyclone77 Posted January 31, 2015 Share Posted January 31, 2015 New GEM looks similar to GFS to me through 30hrs. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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