RCNYILWX Posted January 31, 2015 Share Posted January 31, 2015 Definitely not as epic as a run as I was thinking initially for northern IL but the lake effect signal remains strong. NAM was a bit of a wet outlier compared to the rest of the guidance today, so seems more like an adjustment closer to consensus. Sent from my SM-G900V using Tapatalk Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Snowstorms Posted January 31, 2015 Share Posted January 31, 2015 0z RGEM 36 hours. Kind of hard to compare with the 12 hour increments, but it looks stronger and slightly further West? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
smoof Posted January 31, 2015 Share Posted January 31, 2015 That is a dangerously sharp northern cutoff for both of us It sure is, I'm just hoping for 4" IMBY so I can use my snowblower I just got fixed a while ago, any south shift or too much dry air though and uh oh could be bad on the northern fringe. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Snowstorms Posted January 31, 2015 Share Posted January 31, 2015 RGEM at 48 hours. edit: In line with the Nam. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hoosier Posted January 31, 2015 Share Posted January 31, 2015 RGEM is almost all snow at IND Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Geos Posted January 31, 2015 Share Posted January 31, 2015 I would say the 0z NAM is close to reality on this run. Not very often I would conclude that about the NAM, lol. NAM sounding in NE IL Sunday night when LE parameters improve. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chicago Storm Posted January 31, 2015 Author Share Posted January 31, 2015 0z GFS is digging more by 12 hrs. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WestCoaster Posted January 31, 2015 Share Posted January 31, 2015 RGEM precip types for those who like animated maps: http://collaboration.cmc.ec.gc.ca/cmc/cmdn/pcpn_type/pcpn_type_gem_reg.html Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Snowstorms Posted January 31, 2015 Share Posted January 31, 2015 0z GFS is digging more by 12 hrs. Continues to dig a bit further thru 24. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Geos Posted January 31, 2015 Share Posted January 31, 2015 Total accumulation precip. for the RGEM. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chicago WX Posted January 31, 2015 Share Posted January 31, 2015 RGEM is almost all snow at IND Man, do I hope it has a clue with this one. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WxMidwest Posted January 31, 2015 Share Posted January 31, 2015 instantweathermaps must be gettin' pinged good... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
cyclone77 Posted January 31, 2015 Share Posted January 31, 2015 RGEM keeps QCA mostly rain through 8-9pm, but still delivers well over 6". Looks like a nice thumping from late evening through predawn, and then a drawn out lighter snow all day Sunday/Sunday evening. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
cyclone77 Posted January 31, 2015 Share Posted January 31, 2015 Man, do I hope it has a clue with this one. rgem snow.gif I'm liking 8"+ for LAF. Gonna be 12hrs or more where the rates are very nice after 12z Sunday. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
smoof Posted January 31, 2015 Share Posted January 31, 2015 instantweathermaps must be gettin' pinged good... Yeah they're down for me too. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RCNYILWX Posted January 31, 2015 Share Posted January 31, 2015 RGEM keeps QCA mostly rain through 8-9pm, but still delivers well over 6". Looks like a nice thumping from late evening through predawn, and then a drawn out lighter snow all day Sunday/Sunday evening. Unless this current run is warmer than most of the earlier guidance today, I'd be surprised if it stays rain that late there. Highest max wet bulbs remained under 1C at precip onset on a lot of what I looked at, but I guess we'll see. It was definitely a concern I had for the southwest half of the LOT CWA. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hoosier Posted January 31, 2015 Share Posted January 31, 2015 Man, do I hope it has a clue with this one. rgem snow.gif Quite a battle there (IND) between that and the NAM. Probably even a trickier forecast there than here. One of the IND forecasters mentioned how I-70 so often seems to be the dividing line. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Snowstorms Posted January 31, 2015 Share Posted January 31, 2015 The 0z GFS deepens the storm to 997mb in SE Ohio. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
cyclone77 Posted January 31, 2015 Share Posted January 31, 2015 Unless this current run is warmer than most of the earlier guidance today, I'd be surprised if it stays rain that late there. Highest max wet bulbs remained under 1C at precip onset on a lot of what I looked at, but I guess we'll see. It was definitely a concern I had for the southwest half of the LOT CWA. Yeah I was looking at some forecast soundings earlier from the 12km NAM and it looks like there's just enough warmth in the lower km or so to make things a bit dicey for a few hours after onset. I get a little pessimistic whenever I see a model like the RGEM/4KM NAM showing rain/mix in a situation like this, as warm air has a tendency to be pesky and take awhile to mix out. Since they've done fairly decent in the past I'm sort of riding with them at this point, but hopefully they're overdoing the lingering warm layer a little. In either case I'm pretty confident in a 6"+ snow for the QCA at this point. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
smoof Posted January 31, 2015 Share Posted January 31, 2015 00Z GFS Snow Map: Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Harry Perry Posted January 31, 2015 Share Posted January 31, 2015 The 0z GFS deepens the storm to 997mb in SE Ohio. Beat me to it. I'm impressed with that outcome. 1001mb to 997mb within 6 hours... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RCNYILWX Posted January 31, 2015 Share Posted January 31, 2015 Yeah I was looking at some forecast soundings earlier from the 12km NAM and it looks like there's just enough warmth in the lower km or so to make things a bit dicey for a few hours after onset. I get a little pessimistic whenever I see a model like the RGEM/4KM NAM showing rain/mix in a situation like this, as warm air has a tendency to be pesky and take awhile to mix out. Since they've done fairly decent in the past I'm sort of riding with them at this point, but hopefully they're overdoing the lingering warm layer a little. In either case I'm pretty confident in a 6"+ snow for the QCA at this point. Yep, looking really good out there to finally break the 6"+ drought. That's a good point about the warmer air hanging on longer. Happened with the clipper last weekend. MDW started out as rain Sunday morning when no guidance was indicating that. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
aurora Posted January 31, 2015 Share Posted January 31, 2015 Feeling good for 5-9" here in Lake Orion at this point, which I honestly did not think was possible even 36 hours ago. What a turn of events. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
stormtrackertf Posted January 31, 2015 Share Posted January 31, 2015 00Z GFS Snow Map: I'll take it. Nice 16-18" weenie band along I-80/90 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stebo Posted January 31, 2015 Share Posted January 31, 2015 Well the GFS wasn't cheap on the QPF tonight that is for sure. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chicago WX Posted January 31, 2015 Share Posted January 31, 2015 I'm liking 8"+ for LAF. Gonna be 12hrs or more where the rates are very nice after 12z Sunday. I wish I had 1/2 the confidence you do. Looks to be a rather tight one shaping up for here. Boom or bust. Quite a battle there (IND) between that and the NAM. Probably even a trickier forecast there than here. One of the IND forecasters mentioned how I-70 so often seems to be the dividing line. Looks like it's the RGEM vs NAM/GFS in Indy...and here too I guess too. Hopefully we can both pull off the houdini act that IND did with 1/5/2014. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Harry Perry Posted January 31, 2015 Share Posted January 31, 2015 Now, if we can skate by with minimal virga issues, we'll be set. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Baum Posted January 31, 2015 Share Posted January 31, 2015 Sure would be nice to have ALE's final call. Mine 10.0 on the button. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Whitelakeroy Posted January 31, 2015 Share Posted January 31, 2015 Feeling good for 5-9" here in Lake Orion at this point, which I honestly did not think was possible even 36 hours ago. What a turn of events. Yeah we were DAB 36 hours ago. I am thinking 4-8" right now as I am concern about dry air at the start. Ratios should be in our favor. If I can achieve 6" I would consider that a major win all things considered. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chicago WX Posted January 31, 2015 Share Posted January 31, 2015 Pick your poison. 0z NAM vs GFS snowfall totals... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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