SchaumburgStormer Posted January 31, 2015 Share Posted January 31, 2015 Tonight's going to be the first night in a lonnnng time that I will be staying awake for model runs. Feeling like we are one run away from really being locked and loaded (not that my optimism isn't already sky high). Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
McDude Posted January 31, 2015 Share Posted January 31, 2015 Cheryl Scott seems to be low balling it. 4-8. Micrococast showed nothing near 8" Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Rainman Posted January 31, 2015 Share Posted January 31, 2015 Any prospects on the snow ratios for DTX 12:1 early, 15:1 late. Event average 13 or 14:1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Thunder Road Posted January 31, 2015 Share Posted January 31, 2015 Been pretty busy today up until a short while ago. Was real nice to come home and read 15+ pages on a storm again from the day. Been awhile. I believe the Air Force method is related to the slant-stick method. Very pumped about this storm. I'm all in and going with 8-11" for here. May have a very brief mix at onset, but would be very brief if it even happens. Love the long duration of this event. Looking forward to your updated sig on Monday! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Minnesota Meso Posted January 31, 2015 Share Posted January 31, 2015 Any prospects on the snow ratios for DTX This is the 18z Nam idea based on the Kuchera method, I believe it to be a average of the 84 period, but it will give you a idea. Find the forecast soundings for when ratios will lower or higher at any given time. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
smoof Posted January 31, 2015 Share Posted January 31, 2015 0z NAM just started should be interesting Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hoosier Posted January 31, 2015 Share Posted January 31, 2015 21z SREF mean looks like it may have bumped north. Also seems like it might be wetter. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Thunder Road Posted January 31, 2015 Share Posted January 31, 2015 I have to say, I'm also liking my lake-effect chances here more with these more amplified solutions even though areas west are still favored overall. It's a transient hit, but by the time any potential band gets over here around 12z Monday, the thermodynamic environment is pretty good for a few hours there until inversion heights start tanking around 18z. We get an 850 delta T of ~21 C for a few hours there even, so whatever gets cranking by that point could be dropping some legit snow. If we think roughly 2-3"/hr rates in the band (and that of course could end up conservative, especially considering we'd be getting 20:1 ratios by that point), even with the band only sitting over an area for one to three hours, there could be some impressive bonus snow Monday. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chicago Storm Posted January 31, 2015 Author Share Posted January 31, 2015 21z SREF with a mean of 13.3" at ORD... Spread is from 6.6"-19.0" Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Gilbertfly Posted January 31, 2015 Share Posted January 31, 2015 21z SREF mean looks like it may have bumped north. Also seems like it might be wetter. indeed....solid bump at JOT.... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stebo Posted January 31, 2015 Share Posted January 31, 2015 21z SREF mean looks like it may have bumped north. Also seems like it might be wetter. Clowning hard, avg of 12.5 with none under 7.0" for DTW. The biggest, the op nam with 17.5" Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Powerball Posted January 31, 2015 Share Posted January 31, 2015 21z SREF mean for DTW is now 12.8", FWIW... EDIT: ninja'd Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
smoof Posted January 31, 2015 Share Posted January 31, 2015 The southern cutoff looks quite a bit stronger already just a few hours into the 0z NAM run. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Thunder Road Posted January 31, 2015 Share Posted January 31, 2015 21z SREF mean looks like it may have bumped north. Also seems like it might be wetter. 1.03" now here, up from 0.88" last run. Fluffs up to 12.8" of snow. Pretty tight spread too, from just 0.72" to 1.30". Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hoosier Posted January 31, 2015 Share Posted January 31, 2015 indeed....solid bump at JOT.... 21Z SREF 1 30 2015.gif Mean essentially the same here as before. Definitely seems wetter but not as sure if it went north to any degree Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Thundersnow12 Posted January 31, 2015 Share Posted January 31, 2015 21z SREF with a mean of 13.3" at ORD... Spread is from 6.6"-19.0" That's quite the impressive cluster north of the mean too.. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Rainman Posted January 31, 2015 Share Posted January 31, 2015 This is the 18z Nam idea based on the Kuchera method, I believe it to be a average of the 84 period, but it will give you a idea. Find the forecast soundings for when ratios will lower or higher at any given time. The average snow ratio for whole 84 hour period!? Wtf! Oh well, it's not like the temperature or moisture field can change in a span of 4 days. Seriously, a snowstorm that happens Ina borderline scenario is going to get mapped out as having 20:1 ratios because the next 4 days are cold, so that's how the average comes out. If you're right about that, then those maps shouldn't even be produced. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chicago Storm Posted January 31, 2015 Author Share Posted January 31, 2015 Northern wave is already digging more by 12hrs on the 0z NAM. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Thundersnow12 Posted January 31, 2015 Share Posted January 31, 2015 Nrn wave is already a bump south at 6hrs crossing into ID/MT from BC.. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Snowstorms Posted January 31, 2015 Share Posted January 31, 2015 Nrn wave is already a bump south at 6hrs crossing into ID/MT from BC.. Continues to be a hair south of the 18z through 20 hours. Southern stream is a bit stronger too. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hoosier Posted January 31, 2015 Share Posted January 31, 2015 Looks a tad wetter too so far. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Minnesota Meso Posted January 31, 2015 Share Posted January 31, 2015 The average snow ratio for whole 84 hour period!? Wtf! Oh well, it's not like the temperature or moisture field can change in a span of 4 days. Seriously, a snowstorm that happens Ina borderline scenario is going to get mapped out as having 20:1 ratios because the next 4 days are cold, so that's how the average comes out. If you're right about that, then those maps shouldn't even be produced. I hope your anger is not pointed to me,. It's a tool, use it as such. if temps are warmer at the start of the period than at the end of the period, than you obviously need to make adjustments, as I mentioned use the soundings Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Gilbertfly Posted January 31, 2015 Share Posted January 31, 2015 Looks a tad wetter too so far. Cold side is wetter through H23 .... not by much, but it is certainly not losing any QPF yet Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Snowstorms Posted January 31, 2015 Share Posted January 31, 2015 Northern stream continues digging a bit further south thru 26 hours. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Rainman Posted January 31, 2015 Share Posted January 31, 2015 I hope your anger is not pointed to me,. It's a tool, use it as such. if temps are warmer at the start of the period than at the end of the period, than you obviously need to make adjustments, as I mentioned use the soundings Not at all. I was just surprised by the method. It is crazy. Sorry, didn't mean to make it like I was yelling at you. More like shaking my fist in the air and yelling at nobody in particular Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Thundersnow12 Posted January 31, 2015 Share Posted January 31, 2015 Yeah precip is a touch north at 21hr, slightly wetter and sfc low in CO is 2mb stronger.. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chicago Storm Posted January 31, 2015 Author Share Posted January 31, 2015 Digging much more by 27hrs. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Rainman Posted January 31, 2015 Share Posted January 31, 2015 Most definitely a stronger interaction with the closed low by 27hr. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Gilbertfly Posted January 31, 2015 Share Posted January 31, 2015 H35 precip comps 00Z and 18Z respectively... 00Z 18Z Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Snowstorms Posted January 31, 2015 Share Posted January 31, 2015 The precip is def. stronger by 33 hours. Edit: Slightly further West with the LP thru 36 hours. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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