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January 31-February 2nd Winter Storm Part 2


Chicago Storm

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IMO they should lean towards a Blizzard Warning. It will be close however I think just the expected high snowfall totals should push them into putting up that alert. 12"+ with these winds will absolutely cripple the area

 

A couple of forecast offices (LOT, IWX, etc) have been mulling that over. IIRC there is a pretty specific criteria for them to issue one (35+ mph winds or gusts for at least 3hrs and/or visibility reduced to 1/4mi for at least 3hrs). While the winds will be strong, I don't think there will be a constant 35mph in these areas. However, heavy snowfall combined with a 20mph wind could very well cut things down to whiteout (or dang close), so it is possible. I think that is the issue the offices are trying to figure out.

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I would hedge on a blizzard warning just based on the timing. Worst conditions when people are coming out of Super Bowl parties. Far less people will travel under a blizzard warning (particularly around these areas where they're rare and thus stand out) than a WSW that's issued several times a year. Also, the drifts with this particularly in open areas could strand people in extreme cases, and with temperatures getting down into the single digits, it could be dangerous to be stranded, particularly with carbon monoxide poisoning as a result of people trying to warm themselves up with snow-choked tailpipes. 

 

When it comes down to the details, which is more important, being exactly pinpoint with pre-determined criteria or saving a couple lives with a starker warning? 

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