stormtrackertf Posted January 30, 2015 Share Posted January 30, 2015 Double digit amoutns are relatively common (as in 10-12" amounts). It's getting above 12" that's the rare part. Whatever the case, this map right here is about as close to model porn as it gets for us folks in the south of M-59 Detroit area... http://wxcaster.com/gis-snow-overlays2.php3?STATIONID=DTX Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chicago Storm Posted January 30, 2015 Author Share Posted January 30, 2015 18z GEFS are north and wetter. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TimChgo9 Posted January 30, 2015 Share Posted January 30, 2015 Looking at the GFS surface temps, that freeze line is just south of the Chicago area at the start of the event, at 27 hours, it looks like it is just north of the city, and then by 30 hours is pushed farther south. Hopefully future runs keep that south of us. We are supposed to be at 34 tomorrow. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Powerball Posted January 30, 2015 Share Posted January 30, 2015 Also, FWIW, in case no one noticed, the 18z NAM is actually almost identical to what the 00z GFS (that had the widespread 14-18" amounts for us in Detroit) showed a couple nights ago, just a hair further south and a hair weaker... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Centriptic Posted January 30, 2015 Share Posted January 30, 2015 Whatever the case, this map right here is about as close to model porn as it gets for us folks in the south of M-59 Detroit area... http://wxcaster.com/gis-snow-overlays2.php3?STATIONID=DTX I thought I'd never be one of the those dedicated guys who saves pictures of model runs; that just ended. Chances are looking good here, but I haven't seen anyone bring up the concern about dry air aloft over Michigan in a few post. Are we considering the moisture content high enough to negate these chances? I'd love to be -ing out, but everone showing reguard to the dry-air to overcome has cause some doubts of double digit snowfall... Preliminary Call in MBY: 7.5" +- 1". Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
smoof Posted January 30, 2015 Share Posted January 30, 2015 18z GEFS are north and wetter. Very nice sign for MBY, if I can squeak out 4" or more up here on the very northern fringe I will consider it a major victory since almost all the models showed nothing here the last couple days. It's looking like the UKIE is going to pull it's 3rd coup of the season over the other models by my count (Xmas eve and i forget the other storm it won on too but I remember making a post about it a long time ago). Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stebo Posted January 31, 2015 Share Posted January 31, 2015 SREF plume for DTW has a mean of 10.8" with a range of 6.75" to 17.4" except for one lone model with 1.75". Pretty large consensus for at least 6" to as much as 12" locally. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Gilbertfly Posted January 31, 2015 Share Posted January 31, 2015 Cyclone seems to be handling the potential quite well....coming off a drought like his, it's understandable and unexpected at the same time Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Indystorm Posted January 31, 2015 Share Posted January 31, 2015 Here at the southern end of the watch area along I-70 I do have my concerns. With northward model trends and the power of WAA I-80 and U.S. 30 just might end up being the sweet spot. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Geos Posted January 31, 2015 Share Posted January 31, 2015 Skilling not calling on any amounts yet, but probably will pretty soon. SREF plume mean up to 10" for UGN now. Surprised Alek hasn't been in here by now... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Thundersnow12 Posted January 31, 2015 Share Posted January 31, 2015 Had some time so made this loop which I think is pretty darn cool...off the 18z GFS for DPA of a fcst sounding loop from 3z Sunday to 9z on Monday showing the changing thermal profile with time as well as the DGZ depths and colder air advects in along with the advection wind patterns as winds back around and strengthen out of the NE in the low levels. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Thundersnow12 Posted January 31, 2015 Share Posted January 31, 2015 Skilling not calling on any amounts yet, but probably will pretty soon. SREF plume mean up to 10" for UGN now. Surprised Alek hasn't been in here by now... Alek made a call about two hour ago for 13" at his place. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jackstraw Posted January 31, 2015 Share Posted January 31, 2015 Here at the southern end of the watch area along I-70 I do have my concerns. With northward model trends and the power of WAA I-80 and U.S. 30 just might end up being the sweet spot. Yes, one more northward jog at 00Z and I might just have to drive up to my fishing trailer by Warsaw to enjoy the show lol. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stebo Posted January 31, 2015 Share Posted January 31, 2015 Alek made a call about two hour ago for 13" at his place. Chucking them deep. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mimillman Posted January 31, 2015 Share Posted January 31, 2015 Alek made a call about two hour ago for 13" at his place. Wouldn't go that far, but may up my call from 6-12 to 8-12. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Minnesota Meso Posted January 31, 2015 Share Posted January 31, 2015 Alek made a call about two hour ago for 13" at his place. Just curious where is Alek?? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Minnesota Meso Posted January 31, 2015 Share Posted January 31, 2015 Wouldn't go that far, but may up my call from 6-12 to 8-12. That would seem prudent IMO Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
beavis1729 Posted January 31, 2015 Share Posted January 31, 2015 Just curious where is Alek?? He got suspended for awhile, I think. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Gilbertfly Posted January 31, 2015 Share Posted January 31, 2015 Wouldn't go that far, but may up my call from 6-12 to 8-12. sounds like a solid range....usually ALEK just goes with a number and rides it... versus a range IIRC Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Thunder Road Posted January 31, 2015 Share Posted January 31, 2015 Regarding model QPF, Completely subjective and nothing more than a hunch, but with lower-level flow off the Gulf, and mid-level flow from the Pacific, I would think it's more likely that QPFs end up underdone than overdone. I'm not anticipating any significant model error, but I'm not really worried about verifying drier than expected either. If you look at (for instance) 18z Sun in central IL or anywhere near there, you can see 850 mb flow coming from the western Gulf, and 700 mb flow coming from right near Cabo, directly on top of each other at the same point. This isn't your father's Clipper. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stebo Posted January 31, 2015 Share Posted January 31, 2015 Regarding model QPF, Completely subjective and nothing more than a hunch, but with lower-level flow off the Gulf, and mid-level flow from the Pacific, I would think it's more likely that QPFs end up underdone than overdone. I'm not anticipating any significant model error, but I'm not really worried about verifying drier than expected either. If you look at (for instance) 18z Sun in central IL or anywhere near there, you can see 850 mb flow coming from the western Gulf, and 700 mb flow coming from right near Cabo, directly on top of each other at the same point. This isn't your father's Clipper. Just to compound on this, this storm isn't going to be a fluffy dusty type snow for most. It is going to be heavy and wet especially along and south of I-80. The type of snow we haven't seen in a while locally. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hoosier Posted January 31, 2015 Share Posted January 31, 2015 Regarding model QPF, Completely subjective and nothing more than a hunch, but with lower-level flow off the Gulf, and mid-level flow from the Pacific, I would think it's more likely that QPFs end up underdone than overdone. I'm not anticipating any significant model error, but I'm not really worried about verifying drier than expected either. If you look at (for instance) 18z Sun in central IL or anywhere near there, you can see 850 mb flow coming from the western Gulf, and 700 mb flow coming from right near Cabo, directly on top of each other at the same point. This isn't your father's Clipper. I've been thinking the same thing...nice to hear others back it up. The 1"+ amounts on the models don't seem far-fetched...more a question of exactly where it ends up. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SchaumburgStormer Posted January 31, 2015 Share Posted January 31, 2015 Just to compound on this, this storm isn't going to be a fluffy dusty type snow for most. It is going to be heavy and wet especially along and south of I-80. The type of snow we haven't seen in a while locally. Yeah. 8-10" of heart attack snow. Probably a danger not being considered due to the relative lack of snow this year. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BuffaloWeather Posted January 31, 2015 Share Posted January 31, 2015 GEFS look good. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Minnesota Meso Posted January 31, 2015 Share Posted January 31, 2015 Regarding model QPF, Completely subjective and nothing more than a hunch, but with lower-level flow off the Gulf, and mid-level flow from the Pacific, I would think it's more likely that QPFs end up underdone than overdone. I'm not anticipating any significant model error, but I'm not really worried about verifying drier than expected either. If you look at (for instance) 18z Sun in central IL or anywhere near there, you can see 850 mb flow coming from the western Gulf, and 700 mb flow coming from right near Cabo, directly on top of each other at the same point. This isn't your father's Clipper. I agree with this, but for a different reason. The East to NE flow over central WI and Eastern MN will further act to pool the moisture south east of there, Near the Chicago area. As the southern surge of moisture comes up it will pool somewhere before the cold air drives the system to the east instead of towards the NE towards MI. Edit: the last paragraph is mine Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DAFF Posted January 31, 2015 Share Posted January 31, 2015 Any prospects on the snow ratios for DTX Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Gilbertfly Posted January 31, 2015 Share Posted January 31, 2015 P & C has me up to 6 to 12 inches for Saturday night and sunday....with snow still coming down (and not accounted for) sunday night under 80% probs (which will be adjusted I'm sure based on trends of the plume as we enter that time range).... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
smoof Posted January 31, 2015 Share Posted January 31, 2015 Any prospects on the snow ratios for DTX Cobb Ratio Data For DTW Link 18z NAM shows around 15:1 avg for 14" total 18z GFS shows maybe a 15:1 avg for 10" total But those ratios are usually overdone by 25% or more IMO. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
cyclone77 Posted January 31, 2015 Share Posted January 31, 2015 Been pretty busy today up until a short while ago. Was real nice to come home and read 15+ pages on a storm again from the day. Been awhile. I believe the Air Force method is related to the slant-stick method. Very pumped about this storm. I'm all in and going with 8-11" for here. May have a very brief mix at onset, but would be very brief if it even happens. Love the long duration of this event. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
chances14 Posted January 31, 2015 Share Posted January 31, 2015 Any prospects on the snow ratios for DTX dtx had this in their pm afd FORECAST SOUNDINGS AT DTW INDICATE THE DGZ RATHER HIGH IN THE COLUMN FROM ABOUT 550-700 MB AT THE BEGINNING OF THE EVENT WITH A NEARLY ISOTHERMAL LAYER BELOW THAT AROUND -8 TO -10C. THIS WILL TRANSLATE INTO SNOW RATIOS AROUND 12- 13:1 AT THE START OF THE EVENT INCREASING TO AROUND 15-16:1 SUNDAY NIGHT AS COLDER AIR IS WRAPPED INTO THE SYSTEM. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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