cyclone77 Posted January 31, 2015 Share Posted January 31, 2015 Precip has started, and it's a cold rain at 35. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
beavis1729 Posted January 31, 2015 Share Posted January 31, 2015 Precip has started, and it's a cold rain at 35. My first instinct was that evap cooling/wetbulbing would switch you over to snow very quickly...but then I saw the high dews around your area. I still think you'll switch over within 2-3 hours. Good luck!! 4 PM CST: MLI 36/34 DVN 35/32 RFD 36/26 ORD 36/26 DKB 33/28 JOT 36/29 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
smoof Posted January 31, 2015 Share Posted January 31, 2015 18Z RGEM went 30-40 miles north or so to finally join the other models. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TimChgo9 Posted January 31, 2015 Share Posted January 31, 2015 Up to 38 degrees here now. Could there be, the possibility of an ever so brief shot of light rain before the snow starts falling here? It looks like temps start to fall right around the arrival of the precip, or just before. Can't really tell. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
stormtrackertf Posted January 31, 2015 Share Posted January 31, 2015 impressive.. This is the most consistent model porn I've seen in years. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TugHillMatt Posted January 31, 2015 Share Posted January 31, 2015 Precip has started, and it's a cold rain at 35. Bleh. You should change over quickly though. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Brewers Posted January 31, 2015 Share Posted January 31, 2015 GFS is a likely blizzard again, actually deepens slightly quicker than the 12z run. 999 low along the eastern IL/western IN border 00z tomorrow. Sent from my SM-G900V 50kts showing up at 925, not too shabby. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
cyclone77 Posted January 31, 2015 Share Posted January 31, 2015 My first instinct was that evap cooling/wetbulbing would switch you over to snow very quickly...but then I saw the high dews around your area. I still think you'll switch over within 2-3 hours. Good luck!! 4 PM CST: MLI 36/34 DVN 35/32 RFD 36/26 ORD 36/26 DKB 33/28 JOT 36/29 HRRR keeps us mainly rain through 10pm, but that seems a bit late to me. 4km through about 7-8pm. RGEM around 9pm. Temps look fairly marginal through the night, so we may have some issues with very wet snow compacting for much of the night once it changes over. Still gonna ride the 8-11", but we may have some issues if there's a small bump north. T-snow's RUC map has a pretty sharp cutoff very near the I-80 corridor. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Thundersnow12 Posted January 31, 2015 Share Posted January 31, 2015 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
beavis1729 Posted January 31, 2015 Share Posted January 31, 2015 HRRR keeps us mainly rain through 10pm, but that seems a bit late to me. 4km through about 7-8pm. RGEM around 9pm. Temps look fairly marginal through the night, so we may have some issues with very wet snow compacting for much of the night once it changes over. Still gonna ride the 8-11", but we may have some issues if there's a small bump north. T-snow's RUC map has a pretty sharp cutoff very near the I-80 corridor. Yep, agree with your thoughts. An optimistic way to look at it is that the higher than expected dews = more moisture = higher total QPF. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Gilbertfly Posted January 31, 2015 Share Posted January 31, 2015 GFS is a likely blizzard again, actually deepens slightly quicker than the 12z run. 999 low along the eastern IL/western IN border 00z tomorrow. Sent from my SM-G900V right around the time peeps are leaving their parties tomorrow...expansive area over most of LOT pushing 30 knot surface gust and even more so (obv) on the shoreline Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
cyclone77 Posted January 31, 2015 Share Posted January 31, 2015 Yep, agree with your thoughts. An optimistic way to look at it is that the higher than expected dews = more moisture = higher total QPF. Definitely. We make up for the precip type issues by some higher QPF numbers. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Natester Posted January 31, 2015 Share Posted January 31, 2015 Very light rain has started around 20 minutes ago. Current temperature is 36F. Should change over to snow in an hour or two. Once the changeover occurs, it'll pile up rather fast. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
cyclone77 Posted January 31, 2015 Share Posted January 31, 2015 The rain is actually adding up at a decent rate. Sort of a combination of heavy drizzle and light rain, if that makes sense lol. Already 0.04". Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TugHillMatt Posted January 31, 2015 Share Posted January 31, 2015 Yuck. I'm glad we're not supposed to get any rain. Always makes the bottom layer of snow slushy and soggy. Do you guys have any snowpack left? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Gilbertfly Posted January 31, 2015 Share Posted January 31, 2015 Beautiful 19z ruc snowfall.png RUC really liking that DuPage/Will area synoptically... continues on the 20Z Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Natester Posted January 31, 2015 Share Posted January 31, 2015 Yuck. I'm glad we're not supposed to get any rain. Always makes the bottom layer of snow slushy and soggy. Do you guys have any snowpack left? Except of piles from the January 5, 2015 clipper system, nope. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hoosier Posted January 31, 2015 Share Posted January 31, 2015 It looks like the last 8 hours of the storm makes the difference: who gets in that last heavy band caused by forcing will get the foot plus. Thanks. Other than the sharp gradients, I'd say the Detroit area was one of the bigger bugaboos as some of the models are really going nuts in that area. Decided to temper it a bit for now and keep the max amounts a bit farther south than some models. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
cyclone77 Posted January 31, 2015 Share Posted January 31, 2015 Yuck. I'm glad we're not supposed to get any rain. Always makes the bottom layer of snow slushy and soggy. Do you guys have any snowpack left? Yeah scattered patches of it. Most of it melted in the past few days. Hit 39 earlier today. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Justin Posted January 31, 2015 Share Posted January 31, 2015 already at about 0.07 of light rain/heavy drizzle for the last 90 minutes... this is going to need to flip pretty quickly for the higher totals around here to verify I think. Also have some serious concerns now around my area for along/S of I80 for higher totals as the cut off on these things is usually pretty stout outside of the heavy snow band. I have been riding 7-10" here locally and I am sticking with that, certainly could see some isolated 12" amounts in the area. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ilstormchaser Posted January 31, 2015 Share Posted January 31, 2015 Rain/snow mix attm just East of Peoria as I look out my window. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
vortex Posted January 31, 2015 Share Posted January 31, 2015 Drizzle/very light rain just started here a lil bit ago. Temp at least dropped down to 35 now once it started. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
cyclone77 Posted January 31, 2015 Share Posted January 31, 2015 already at about 0.07 of light rain/heavy drizzle for the last 90 minutes... this is going to need to flip pretty quickly for the higher totals around here to verify I think. Also have some serious concerns now around my area for along/S of I80 for higher totals as the cut off on these things is usually pretty stout outside of the heavy snow band. I have been riding 7-10" here locally and I am sticking with that, certainly could see some isolated 12" amounts in the area. Dual-pol products showing the snow isn't too far above us, generally 1000-1500ft best I can tell. The problem is there's no feed of colder air at the surface, as winds are still southerly. Precip is not heavy enough to drag down the colder air from above at this point. Looking like we may be waiting around another 3-5hrs to fully change over. May see a burst of snow now and then though if we can get a pocket of heavier precip to move in. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TheWeatherPimp Posted January 31, 2015 Share Posted January 31, 2015 My thoughts. Obviously the I-70 corridor will be tough. Looks like the models are already overestimating warm air advection with temps averaging 3-5" degrees cooler then forecast across Central and Southern Indiana so banking on the EURO/Canadian along the I-70 corridor. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jersey Andrew Posted January 31, 2015 Share Posted January 31, 2015 I'm a northern Jersey (Bergen County) guy but in Toronto this weekend to watch the Super Bowl with friends. The GTA is do for a big one and hopefully we can get it done with this storm. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TugHillMatt Posted January 31, 2015 Share Posted January 31, 2015 Thanks. Other than the sharp gradients, I'd say the Detroit area was one of the bigger bugaboos as some of the models are really going nuts in that area. Decided to temper it a bit for now and keep the max amounts a bit farther south than some models. It looks like the I-23 Corridor will be getting some of the heaviest snow in Michigan. I don't like driving that road any time...I can't imagine driving it during a winter storm. Except of piles from the January 5, 2015 clipper system, nope. Yeah scattered patches of it. Most of it melted in the past few days. Hit 39 earlier today. Wow, so you guys didn't really have any snow on the ground for most of January? I guess long stretches like that are more common there than here. Especially the past couple of years. I hope you both get lots of snow to enjoy. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowstormcanuck Posted January 31, 2015 Share Posted January 31, 2015 I'm a northern Jersey (Bergen County) guy but in Toronto this weekend to watch the Super Bowl with friends. The GTA is do for a big one and hopefully we can get it done with this storm. Going to need another bump to the north, otherwise this is going to be pretty run-of-the-mill. Especially for a guy from the EC's who's seen his fair share of monsters. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Centriptic Posted January 31, 2015 Share Posted January 31, 2015 It's crazy seeing how all the vortices are lining up to give us the moisture transport. Something about it feels "just right". http://earth.nullschool.net/#current/wind/isobaric/850hPa/overlay=total_precipitable_water/orthographic=-94.73,41.26,1106 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
cyclone77 Posted January 31, 2015 Share Posted January 31, 2015 It looks like the I-23 Corridor will be getting some of the heaviest snow in Michigan. I don't like driving that road any time...I can't imagine driving it during a winter storm. Wow, so you guys didn't really have any snow on the ground for most of January? I guess long stretches like that are more common there than here. Especially the past couple of years. I hope you both get lots of snow to enjoy. Yeah around here snow cover has a tendency to come and go throughout a winter. Some seasons though (like last winter) we have snow cover from Dec through early Mar. Up to 0.06" of ice water. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
McDude Posted January 31, 2015 Share Posted January 31, 2015 Family in Bloomington, IL said snow starting to mix in with rain. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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