stormtrackertf Posted January 31, 2015 Share Posted January 31, 2015 What is the 15Z SREF mean for FWA? Thanks in advance. I'm really enjoying following the discussion on this storm. ~17", with a spread of 2-26", but most members 15-20". A few huge outliers and lowballers. Edit: Ninja'd. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Brewers Posted January 31, 2015 Share Posted January 31, 2015 HRRR looking sweet, can even see the lake streamers. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mjwise Posted January 31, 2015 Share Posted January 31, 2015 What is the 15Z SREF mean for FWA? Thanks in advance. I'm really enjoying following the discussion on this storm. Here's a direct link to the product. It's a freebie experimental product on the SPC site. There are some low runs on the SREF for FWA - rain intruding on three of the ensemble members hold totals to low single digits. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mimillman Posted January 31, 2015 Share Posted January 31, 2015 15Z ORD... 15Z SREF 1 31 2015 -- ORD.gif JOT... 15Z SREF 1 31 2015 -- JOT.gif Still seems high, but more reasonable than before. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hoosier Posted January 31, 2015 Share Posted January 31, 2015 HRRR looking sweet, can even see the lake streamers. I know where I'll be if that image plays out. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
vortex Posted January 31, 2015 Share Posted January 31, 2015 Just shot IKK back up to nearly 15 for the mean...... Burp! With four over 20" and and three under 10". Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
on_wx Posted January 31, 2015 Share Posted January 31, 2015 And now we wait to see if EC will release any winter storm watches with the 3pm's Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Gilbertfly Posted January 31, 2015 Share Posted January 31, 2015 HRRR looking sweet, can even see the lake streamers. that looks beautiful... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TimChgo9 Posted January 31, 2015 Share Posted January 31, 2015 Precip shield looks good on radar. Looks like some is starting to appear just SW of Peoria. Main bands are still back in Central MO and SW IA. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RyanDe680 Posted January 31, 2015 Share Posted January 31, 2015 NAM comin in hot and juicy (not warm, but Rob Dyrdek 'comin in hot' style) Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jackstraw Posted January 31, 2015 Share Posted January 31, 2015 I know where I'll be if that image plays out. I'm already there, calling 7.5 with slop in the middle for mby. Been burned by the warm fuzzies to many times this winter. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LizardMafia Posted January 31, 2015 Share Posted January 31, 2015 Wild swing on the SREF for LAF, but in a good way. Mean went from about 5" on the 9z run to 12" on the 15z run. IND even up.. Of course couldn't of gone much lower than what it was.. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowstormcanuck Posted January 31, 2015 Share Posted January 31, 2015 18z NAM will bump back to the north. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
stormtrackertf Posted January 31, 2015 Share Posted January 31, 2015 HRRR looking sweet, can even see the lake streamers. That's beautiful. Kind of off topic, but looking at that image is kind of amazing when I think back to how low-res all the models were way back in the early 2000's when I first started following them. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
eureka22 Posted January 31, 2015 Share Posted January 31, 2015 SREF mean for BMI jumped from 8.3 to 11.3 with PIA at 12.3 now. I've been concerned about the switchover to snow being delayed cutting down on totals all day. Maybe it's time to just accept I'm going to get snowed in tomorrow Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Harry Perry Posted January 31, 2015 Share Posted January 31, 2015 that looks beautiful... Hope it pans out for you. My gut tells me GRR keeps the advisory going with no intent to upgrade. They are definitely boding on a further south solution. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Gilbertfly Posted January 31, 2015 Share Posted January 31, 2015 Still seems high, but more reasonable than before. looks like about a 13.5:1 ratio....which seems reasonable stout cluster from 18 to 22 though Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ExplosiveLow Posted January 31, 2015 Share Posted January 31, 2015 Thing of beauty Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Thundersnow12 Posted January 31, 2015 Share Posted January 31, 2015 18z NAM looks better with the wave at 21hr. Sharper, better tilt and more ridging ahead of it. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jendoc Posted January 31, 2015 Share Posted January 31, 2015 Thanks for some great reading today. Excited to have a storm on the weekend and nowhere to go!!! Will post pics from my location during the storm. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mjwise Posted January 31, 2015 Share Posted January 31, 2015 Hope it pans out for you. My gut tells me GRR keeps the advisory going with no intent to upgrade. They are definitely boding on a further south solution. I think that's kind of nuts, especially for their southern tier of counties. Models are really coalescing around the I-94 corridor getting slammed. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
cyclone77 Posted January 31, 2015 Share Posted January 31, 2015 HRRR keeps us rain through 10pm. That seems a bit odd. Expecting any mixing issues to be done between 6-8pm, then rip city. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
on_wx Posted January 31, 2015 Share Posted January 31, 2015 EC posted a narrow winter storm warning for the northern Lake Erie shoreline...and Hamilton. https://weather.gc.ca/warnings/index_e.html?prov=son Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hoosier Posted January 31, 2015 Share Posted January 31, 2015 GRR upgrading to warnings for the southern 2 rows of counties. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
geddyweather Posted January 31, 2015 Share Posted January 31, 2015 10897966_888017631237927_1631966042572142685_n.jpg Thing of beauty Indeed! Thinking 12-14" in MBY, since I'm nearly right on the line between 8-12 and 10-15. The Wal-Mart's down here are packed to the brim, so it sounds like people have gotten the message. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Snowstorms Posted January 31, 2015 Share Posted January 31, 2015 EC posted a narrow winter storm warning for the northern Lake Erie shoreline...and Hamilton. https://weather.gc.ca/warnings/index_e.html?prov=son Well its about time. IMO i think there should be a SWS for the GTA. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stebo Posted January 31, 2015 Share Posted January 31, 2015 GRR upgrading to warnings for the southern 2 rows of counties.Not too surprising especially since those should have been warning to begin with. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
stormtrackertf Posted January 31, 2015 Share Posted January 31, 2015 10897966_888017631237927_1631966042572142685_n.jpg Thing of beauty Extrapolating that map makes me a happy man. Also for reference, CLE's thoughts from FB: Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
L.B. LaForce Posted January 31, 2015 Share Posted January 31, 2015 GRR looks to have upgraded to a warning for some. SREF plumes for BTL have been absurd, they have went up the past 8 runs, and sitting at a mean of like 18". Still a bit much in my opinion. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Whitelakeroy Posted January 31, 2015 Share Posted January 31, 2015 GRR upgrading to warnings for the southern 2 rows of counties. Too bad 93 is not working this afternoon shift ... I would have loved to see what he would have done. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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