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January 31-February 2nd Winter Storm Part 2


Chicago Storm

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Thinking out loud here but after thinking about this setup, I'd rather have the problem we're facing (marginal sfc temps) than questionable mid-level temps.  Sure, neither is ideal, but at least we have room to play with in the mid levels in case the models are underdone.  There's not much question here about the main precip type.  The big question here is what happens from about 925 mb toward the surface and we'll have to hope that steady precip can help out with temps.

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Not going with this yet.  But like I said last night after the Ukie came out.  It's not out of the question given the strong moisture transport from the sw and the strong baroclinic zone, NE winds over MSP should hold this system further south thus not affecting us.  I think this may be in play.

 

hopwrf-ts-24km-afaccumsnow-15.png

 

Legit question, what is the air force method?

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Not going with this yet.  But like I said last night after the Ukie came out.  It's not out of the question given the strong moisture transport from the sw and the strong baroclinic zone, NE winds over MSP should hold this system further south thus not affecting us.  I think this may be in play.

 

hopwrf-ts-24km-afaccumsnow-15.png

What model is that?
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What model is that?

HOPWRF is centered around MSP and was intended to be a 15hr model.  Since than it has developed a long term look.  The admins often times change the 15hr regions to support decision making during major events anywhere in the country. Buy the way it did a reasonable job on the major NE blizzard a few days ago.

 

http://hopwrf.info/

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Not going with this yet.  But like I said last night after the Ukie came out.  It's not out of the question given the strong moisture transport from the sw and the strong baroclinic zone, NE winds over MSP should hold this system further south thus not affecting us.  I think this may be in play.

 

hopwrf-ts-24km-afaccumsnow-15.png

16-18" here... one can dream, no?

 

I'll go for 8.5" where I'm at, just north of ORD.

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Not going with this yet.  But like I said last night after the Ukie came out.  It's not out of the question given the strong moisture transport from the sw and the strong baroclinic zone, NE winds over MSP should hold this system further south thus not affecting us.  I think this may be in play.

 

hopwrf-ts-24km-afaccumsnow-15.png

 

First time I've heard of the Air Force method, as well. Seeing the gigantic candy-colored swath of 18-20" come to fruition what be quite the feat, but I'm not sure im convinced. :D  

 

*yay for post #200*

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It looks like it's based on surface temperature only, making it completely worthless. There are better methods out there that at least consider the thermodynamic profile of the column in which the snow is actually being generated.

Climatology is probably better than this method.

Yeah ... I just noted in my post that it was oversimplified and this method would be higher than reality.

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They're pretty rare around here, I'm starting to get excited myself. The potential is definitely there. Just south of here, Cleveland's WFO has the Toledo metro area in the "8 TO 10 INCHES WITH LOCALIZED AREAS OF A FOOT OR MORE POSSIBLE" wording in their WSW. Fun to track at the least...

 

Double digit amoutns are relatively common (as in 10-12" amounts).

 

It's getting above 12" that's the rare part.

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It looks like it's based on surface temperature only, making it completely worthless. There are better methods out there that at least consider the thermodynamic profile.

Climatology is probably better than this method.

I must admit, that's the first time I have seen the chart for this method, it does look according to the chart like it's based on surface tiemps, but one has to wonder, have they calculated the average temps aloft for those surface temps to come up to that ratio?  All I know is it has done fairly well for our area.

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