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January 31-February 2nd Winter Storm Part 2


Chicago Storm

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I will tell ya that if anyone is gonna get blizzard conditions, it will be here at IWX. We have definitely been throwing around the wording. The concern isn't as much because of NYC as it is winds. It is extrememly difficult to get true blizzard criteria in this portion of the country. We will continue to nowcast for this event and if the surface low trends deeper, don't be surprised to see us throw one one. 

 

What is blizzard criteria for the US? Here in Canada it is 25 mph sustained winds for 4+ hours with 1/4 SM or less visibility.

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I'm a little concerned about the mild temperature across Iowa.  We have already hit 36 and it's not even 11am.  It's one thing to be 35 and quickly fall to freezing once the precip begins, but 40 degrees is a little different.  I don't want to lose a quarter inch of the precip to rain.

 

The SW winds sure have ushered in some warmth. This is why I think the farther north track that the GFS has is plausible. More warmth farther north. This could also aide in a stronger, moist system.

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What is blizzard criteria for the US? Here in Canada it is 25 mph sustained winds for 4+ hours with 1/4 SM or less visibility.

 

Either sutained winds of 35 MPH+, or consecutive gusts of 35 MPH+ within 3 hours with visibilities solidly below 1/4 miles the entire 3 hours...

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If the system was taking aim on the Toronto region it would be taken seriously. During severe weather the warnings are issued after the event has passed in many cases.

 

The last widespread winter storm watch in SW Ontario/GTA was April 9/10 2013. It's fairly common for them to skip a watch and go right to warning at the last minute in our area regardless of how many snow/ice storms we've had in the last 2 years

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AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHICAGO/ROMEOVILLE IL
1043 AM CST SAT JAN 31 2015

UPDATE

1032 AM CST

CURRENTLY GOING OVER THE LATEST FORECAST GUIDANCE. A FIRST LOOK
AT THE 12 UTC GFS INCREASES MY CONCERNS FOR HEAVY SNOW ACROSS MUCH
OF MY AREA TONIGHT INTO SUNDAY. HOWEVER...PRECIP TYPE ISSUES
MENTIONED IN THE PREVIOUS DISCUSSION COULD COMPLICATED THINGS
ACROSS MY FAR SOUTHERN COUNTIES...AS THE LATEST GUIDANCE SUGGESTS
THE 850 MB LOW MAY TRACK RIGHT ACROSS EAST CENTRAL ILLINOIS SUNDAY
AFTERNOON. AS A RESULT...THIS COULD IMPACT SNOW AMOUNTS ACROSS MY
FAR SOUTH.

I AM ALSO BECOMING MORE CONCERNED FOR THE POTENTIAL OF
BLIZZARD CONDITIONS SUNDAY AND SUNDAY EVENING...ESPECIALLY GIVEN
THE TREND FOR A STRONGER SYSTEM. THE 12 UTC RUN OF THE GFS
SUGGESTS WIND ADVISORY LEVEL WINDS...WITH GUSTS POTENTIALLY UP
AROUND 40 KT. IF THESE TYPE OF WINDS MATERIALIZE...WHITE OUT
CONDITIONS COULD CERTAINLY BECOME AN ISSUE. IN ANY
EVENT...CONFIDENCE IS INCREASING THAT MOST OF MY AREA WILL
EXPERIENCE A MAJOR WINTER STORM...WITH UP TO A FOOT OF SNOW
POSSIBLE. 
 

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At the end of the day, you're right. Obsessing about these numbers are stupid. If you get a nice dumping of snow, with cold, wind, drifts, near blizzard conditions, you're set. Regardless about what the F6 data says. 

 

Absolutely agree with this! To me, these are my own personal "excitement" criteria for snowstorm amounts:

 

< 4" No excitement

4-6" Minor excitement

7-10" Excited

11-15" Very excited

16"+ Heaven

 

I think any system above 6" can be very exciting if winds are strong.

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GRR saying "oh knock that **** off, It's only going to be a couple inches - the models are all overdone" lol - being facetious here

I am becoming increasingly concerned. Being a firefighter here in Marshall... Everyone I've talked to this morning (taught a fire academy course this am) has said "it's only going to be a couple inches" or the infamous "it's going to miss us to the south".

Coming from a public safety stand-point, you have all major models giving the area appreciable snow that WILL cause issues 8" on the low end and as high as 20"... Just issue a warning and let people prepare.

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At the end of the day, you're right. Obsessing about these numbers are stupid. If you get a nice dumping of snow, with cold, wind, drifts, near blizzard conditions, you're set. Regardless about what the F6 data says. 

I could not agree with you MORE. But it bothers some so I say lets DO IT. Whats funny is that while Jan 22, 2005 was awesome, it was nowhere NEAR my favorite storm the last decade.

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So, the "blizzard panic" was in full swing this morning.  Was out at the local Wally World this morning getting new boots, and other supplies.   Bread, milk, coffee, and any other kind of thing was flying out of the store.  (I have beer and cheese balls, and pretzels, so I am good.... :pepsi: )

 

Figuring MBY will see, at the very least 10" .  Haven't seen a snow map, but it looks as though we are in for it through tomorrow.  This kind or weather makes working from home extra sweet.... although, unless power goes out, I can't use the weather as an excuse for not showing up......

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GRR saying "oh knock that **** off, It's only going to be a couple inches - the models are all overdone" lol - being facetious here

I am becoming increasingly concerned. Being a firefighter here in Marshall... Everyone I've talked to this morning (taught a fire academy course this am) has said "it's only going to be a couple inches" or the infamous "it's going to miss us to the south".

Coming from a public safety stand-point, you have all major models giving the area appreciable snow that WILL cause issues 8" on the low end and as high as 20"... Just issue a warning and let people prepare.

 

The hypesters of the media are to blame. Send a message of potential weather and make the calls as required. I see no harm in posting the upper and lower perameters to the public as what could happen and sharpen the pencil when the event nears. To sit back and issue don't worry everything will be fine till the last minute should be flamed more than making a call based on blending the information available at the time.

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Liking between US 30 and US 6 for the heaviest snow. You are looking primed my friend.

Hey, that's me! *right between US 6 and US30 :D

Was wondering if you folks at IWX would throw around the possibility of blizzard warnings. Seems like all the criteria will be present at sometime or another.

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GRR saying "oh knock that **** off, It's only going to be a couple inches - the models are all overdone" lol - being facetious here

I am becoming increasingly concerned. Being a firefighter here in Marshall... Everyone I've talked to this morning (taught a fire academy course this am) has said "it's only going to be a couple inches" or the infamous "it's going to miss us to the south".

Coming from a public safety stand-point, you have all major models giving the area appreciable snow that WILL cause issues 8" on the low end and as high as 20"... Just issue a warning and let people prepare.

Even when I was out taking care of stuff prior to starting work today, I over heard a couple of discussions, people discounting the storm, saying it's going to miss, or it's only going to be "a couple of inches" annoys me. 

 

As a former public safety type (Firefighter, EMT, 9-1-1 Operator) it drives me nuts when people fail to prepare for any kind of inclement weather, be it a blizzard, or severe storms, or what have you, especially when the weather is imminent, and warnings have been posted. Today there are those out preparing, as best they can, and there are those, like a couple of my neighbors, who are blowing it off.  However, there is no convincing them that there is going to be heavy snow, until it starts falling. 

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