Thundersnow12 Posted January 31, 2015 Share Posted January 31, 2015 Easy to make a case for blizzard conditions Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowstormcanuck Posted January 31, 2015 Share Posted January 31, 2015 Environment Canada is not impressed at all with the 11am's 4" for Windsor (adjacent DTX) 2-4" for London 0.8" for KW 0.8-1.5" for Hamilton Flurries for Toronto I feel like we're talking about a completely different storm here They are not good. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
huronicane Posted January 31, 2015 Share Posted January 31, 2015 Environment Canada is not impressed at all with the 11am's 4" for Windsor (adjacent DTX) 2-4" for London 0.8" for KW 0.8-1.5" for Hamilton Flurries for Toronto I feel like we're talking about a completely different storm here TheWeatherNetwork has your back sorta Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Gilbertfly Posted January 31, 2015 Share Posted January 31, 2015 another look at the set up...nearly classic thumper material.... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
harrisale Posted January 31, 2015 Share Posted January 31, 2015 Going to stick with my initial call and go final call of 3" IMBY. Good luck to those further south. Hate to miss out but it will be nice to get a few flakes from what could be a record breaking system. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WestCoaster Posted January 31, 2015 Share Posted January 31, 2015 I am thinking the 12" drought here ends with this storm. originally I was thinking 9-12" locally from the city south. However, now I think this is in the 11-14" range for the entire metro. This would have to have some sort of prolific shift north or south for us not to realize a huge snowfall here. When was your last 12" storm? Toronto has had two 12" storms in the past 8 years IIRC? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Powerball Posted January 31, 2015 Share Posted January 31, 2015 Wow!! to think this system could get even deeper.... Its allredy on the upper echelon on the snow charts. Impressive I mentioned before how funny it would be if, on the anniversary of GHD 2011, DEtroit gets redemption for the GHD 2011 screw job (via. this storm). We're slowly getting closer and closer to that with each consecutive suite of model runs... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TugHillMatt Posted January 31, 2015 Share Posted January 31, 2015 Holy **** to the GFS. I will say this...this storm has huge potential with it. It should snow light to moderately ALL day tomorrow, but then after many hours of snow, the heaviest burst looks to be in the storms final hours as the L passes to our south, which could REALLY add on the totals. I am supposed to start a new job at Allstate in Farmington Hills Monday, and I may literally be snowed in lol. Peak snow depth last winter at DTW was 20"...currently, we have 3" on the ground....just an fyi, Detroit has never seen consecutive winters with 16"+ depth. (most we have had is consecutive with 15"+ depth). Wow. I've had more than that every winter I've been here...except maybe the awful winter of 11-12. just to post an image for any that are mobile this weekend and can't see.... via the 12Z GFS.... gfs_mslp_wind_ncus_7 wind.png I would be so ticked if I lived on a houseboat under that little circle of green.... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Thunder Road Posted January 31, 2015 Share Posted January 31, 2015 Upping my imby call to 16.1", including LES Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
michsnowfreak Posted January 31, 2015 Share Posted January 31, 2015 I am thinking the 12" drought here ends with this storm. originally I was thinking 9-12" locally from the city south. However, now I think this is in the 11-14" range for the entire metro. This would have to have some sort of prolific shift north or south for us not to realize a huge snowfall here. 12" wasnt so long ago...it would be REALLY nice if the 13"+ drought ends lol Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Rainman Posted January 31, 2015 Share Posted January 31, 2015 Environment Canada is not impressed at all with the 11am's 4" for Windsor (adjacent DTX) 2-4" for London 0.8" for KW 0.8-1.5" for Hamilton Flurries for Toronto I feel like we're talking about a completely different storm here jlol...4" in Windsor. What a joke. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stebo Posted January 31, 2015 Share Posted January 31, 2015 When was your last 12" storm? Toronto has had two 12" storms in the past 8 years IIRC? December 2005 locally, for myself though, I was in Mount Pleasant for the Super Tuesday storm back in 2008 and we ended up with 20" there. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WestCoaster Posted January 31, 2015 Share Posted January 31, 2015 I wonder if any of the midwest forecast regions are nervous to pull the trigger on a blizzard warning given the bust-a-palooza for NYC. Then again, more models are in agreement for this event.. IIRC only the Euro and maybe the inconsistent NAM were showing those NYC amounts? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowstormcanuck Posted January 31, 2015 Share Posted January 31, 2015 When was your last 12" storm? Toronto has had two 12" storms in the past 8 years IIRC? There last one was January 21-22, 2005. Our last two were December 15-16, 2007 and February 8, 2013. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
michsnowfreak Posted January 31, 2015 Share Posted January 31, 2015 When was your last 12" storm? Toronto has had two 12" storms in the past 8 years IIRC? 12.2" Jan 22, 2005. However as Im sure youve heard it discussed here a million times lol, Detroit has no problem getting 10-12" storms, its getting over that 13"+ hump. OFFICIALLY that has not happened since 19.3" fell Dec 1/2, 1974 (naturally there have been numerous storms where DTW picked up 10-11" that burbs had 13-14"+) Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ExplosiveLow Posted January 31, 2015 Share Posted January 31, 2015 Sunday night has the potential for some thundersnow across northern Indiana on the GFS solution. Extreme fgen with some negative epv right above the best fgen. Music to my ears. In light of 12z guidance you still thinking I-30 corridor as the jackpot for your CWA? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowstormcanuck Posted January 31, 2015 Share Posted January 31, 2015 December 2005 locally, for myself though, I was in Mount Pleasant for the Super Tuesday storm back in 2008 and we ended up with 20" there. At DTW? That should be Jan 2005, no? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Powerball Posted January 31, 2015 Share Posted January 31, 2015 At DTW? That should be Jan 2005, no? Yep. Though there's some debate that parts of DEtroit proper picked up about 12-14" with the 1999 Blizzard (although that wasn't the official measurement at DTW). Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
on_wx Posted January 31, 2015 Share Posted January 31, 2015 TheWeatherNetwork has your back sorta B8sREWvCAAEtYMp.jpg With low end forecasts of 4" for DTX and 2" for north metro areas they are probably keeping from contradicting the limited special weather statement/ec forecast for SW Ont - while at the same time still trying to outline potential for high amounts of 8-12" Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowstormcanuck Posted January 31, 2015 Share Posted January 31, 2015 12.2" Jan 22, 2005. However as Im sure youve heard it discussed here a million times lol, Detroit has no problem getting 10-12" storms, its getting over that 13"+ hump. OFFICIALLY that has not happened since 19.3" fell Dec 1/2, 1974 (naturally there have been numerous storms where DTW picked up 10-11" that burbs had 13-14"+) At the end of the day, you're right. Obsessing about these numbers are stupid. If you get a nice dumping of snow, with cold, wind, drifts, near blizzard conditions, you're set. Regardless about what the F6 data says. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
extremewx52 Posted January 31, 2015 Share Posted January 31, 2015 I wonder if any of the midwest forecast regions are nervous to pull the trigger on a blizzard warning given the bust-a-palooza for NYC. Then again, more models are in agreement for this event.. IIRC only the Euro and maybe the inconsistent NAM were showing those NYC amounts? I will tell ya that if anyone is gonna get blizzard conditions, it will be here at IWX. We have definitely been throwing around the wording. The concern isn't as much because of NYC as it is winds. It is extrememly difficult to get true blizzard criteria in this portion of the country. We will continue to nowcast for this event and if the surface low trends deeper, don't be surprised to see us throw one one. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stebo Posted January 31, 2015 Share Posted January 31, 2015 At DTW? That should be Jan 2005, no? Yeah sorry, wrong month Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WestCoaster Posted January 31, 2015 Share Posted January 31, 2015 12.2" Jan 22, 2005. However as Im sure youve heard it discussed here a million times lol, Detroit has no problem getting 10-12" storms, its getting over that 13"+ hump. OFFICIALLY that has not happened since 19.3" fell Dec 1/2, 1974 (naturally there have been numerous storms where DTW picked up 10-11" that burbs had 13-14"+) Wow, for some reason I thought DTW went over 12" for that January 6(?), 2014 system. Sounds like Detroit's 10-12" "no problem" dumps are like YYZ's 8" dumps... which are almost always forecasted as 4" Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DAFF Posted January 31, 2015 Share Posted January 31, 2015 j lol...4" in Windsor. What a joke. If the system was taking aim on the Toronto region it would be taken seriously. During severe weather the warnings are issued after the event has passed in many cases. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
extremewx52 Posted January 31, 2015 Share Posted January 31, 2015 Music to my ears. In light of 12z guidance you still thinking I-30 corridor as the jackpot for your CWA? Liking between US 30 and US 6 for the heaviest snow. You are looking primed my friend. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
hawkeye_wx Posted January 31, 2015 Share Posted January 31, 2015 I'm a little concerned about the mild temperature across Iowa. We have already hit 36 and it's not even 11am. It's one thing to be 35 and quickly fall to freezing once the precip begins, but 40 degrees is a little different. I don't want to lose a quarter inch of the precip to rain. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
michsnowfreak Posted January 31, 2015 Share Posted January 31, 2015 Since I have been keeping track imby since 1995, I have had the following double-digit storms: 12.0" - Jan 2/3, 1999 (*note this was probably underestimated, but I have no time machine to do it over lol) 11.6" - Dec 31, 2013-Jan 2, 2014 (*note if you include round 1 its 13.0" over 60 hours lol) 11.5" - Feb 22/23, 2003 11.0" - Jan 22, 2005 10.3" - Jan 5/6, 2014 10.3" - Mar 4/5, 2008 10.2" - Feb 20/21, 2011 10.1" - Feb 1/2, 2011 Also an est 11-12" in grayling Mar 3, 2012. So if we are going to do it, lets not just dance right around 12" again. Lets go over the hump with it. And if ANY storm has the potential, its this one, as there will probably be 20 hours of continuous snow before the L passes to our south creating even heavier snow. Bring it on Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ExplosiveLow Posted January 31, 2015 Share Posted January 31, 2015 I will tell ya that if anyone is gonna get blizzard conditions, it will be here at IWX. We have definitely been throwing around the wording. The concern isn't as much because of NYC as it is winds. It is extrememly difficult to get true blizzard criteria in this portion of the country. We will continue to nowcast for this event and if the surface low trends deeper, don't be surprised to see us throw one one. Great to have the IWX folks on this forum. Appreciate the insights. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TheWeatherPimp Posted January 31, 2015 Share Posted January 31, 2015 Interesting if the 12z EURO comes in looking like it has since the 12z Canadian remains South as well. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
michsnowfreak Posted January 31, 2015 Share Posted January 31, 2015 Yep. Though there's some debate that parts of DEtroit proper picked up about 12-14" with the 1999 Blizzard (although that wasn't the official measurement at DTW). Im almost positive. But what can you do, the official numbers are the official numbers. DTW had 11.3" measured by the terrible faa lol Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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