Powerball Posted January 31, 2015 Share Posted January 31, 2015 One thing I noticed (as far as the 21z SREF) is that the OP NAM on it showed about 17" of snow at DTW (which is what we saw on the 06z NAM), while the 03z SREFs showed about 14" of snow at DTW (which is what we saw on the 12z NAM). Meanwhile, the OP NAM on the 09z SREF for DTW is the 2nd highest member with 20.1" (BTW, the lowest member for DTW is 11.6") But just an observation. IF what I observed about the previous SREFs and the previous OP NAM's runs continues to be the case, the 18z NAM should be real nice for Detroit... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
geddyweather Posted January 31, 2015 Share Posted January 31, 2015 12Z GFS Snow Map: Go big or go home! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RyanDe680 Posted January 31, 2015 Share Posted January 31, 2015 At this point I'm skeptical of how high these totals can get. The GFS is nuts!!! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
michsnowfreak Posted January 31, 2015 Share Posted January 31, 2015 Holy **** to the GFS. I will say this...this storm has huge potential with it. It should snow light to moderately ALL day tomorrow, but then after many hours of snow, the heaviest burst looks to be in the storms final hours as the L passes to our south, which could REALLY add on the totals. I am supposed to start a new job at Allstate in Farmington Hills Monday, and I may literally be snowed in lol. Peak snow depth last winter at DTW was 20"...currently, we have 3" on the ground....just an fyi, Detroit has never seen consecutive winters with 16"+ depth. (most we have had is consecutive with 15"+ depth). Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RCNYILWX Posted January 31, 2015 Share Posted January 31, 2015 The GFS has me concerned from an impact perspective tomorrow with everyone on the roads driving to Superbowl parties. This is getting close to blizzard conditions on this run. Sent from my SM-G900V using Tapatalk Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
michsnowfreak Posted January 31, 2015 Share Posted January 31, 2015 Also this is the first time I can ever recall the day before a big, moisture-laden storm that the NAM wasnt the craziest solution. (then again, it IS the new GFSs first test). Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chicago Storm Posted January 31, 2015 Author Share Posted January 31, 2015 The GFS has me concerned from an impact perspective tomorrow with everyone on the roads driving to Superbowl parties. This is getting close to blizzard conditions on this run. Sent from my SM-G900V Maybe the UKMET wasn't so far fetched after all?The 12z UKMET and ECMWF runs will be interesting. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ILSNOW Posted January 31, 2015 Share Posted January 31, 2015 The GFS has me concerned from an impact perspective tomorrow with everyone on the roads driving to Superbowl parties. This is getting close to blizzard conditions on this run. Sent from my SM-G900V Izzi was correctly conservative this morning with the 12z runs gotta believe snowfall amounts will be increased. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
geddyweather Posted January 31, 2015 Share Posted January 31, 2015 The GFS has me concerned from an impact perspective tomorrow with everyone on the roads driving to Superbowl parties. This is getting close to blizzard conditions on this run. Sent from my SM-G900V This pretty much goes for anyone getting 10"+ this round. Winds will be picking Sunday afternoon+evening, with gusts in the 35mph range for many. Starting to wonder if we'll see any blizzard warnings during the brunt of this event. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WestCoaster Posted January 31, 2015 Share Posted January 31, 2015 Northern edge not so sharp on the GFS. Gives Toronto 6-7"; will take what I can get this winter! Amounts still seem a bit high to me for the GTA, though. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RCNYILWX Posted January 31, 2015 Share Posted January 31, 2015 Izzi was correctly conservative this morning with the 12z runs gotta believe snowfall amounts will be increased. They definitely will be. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
hawkeye_wx Posted January 31, 2015 Share Posted January 31, 2015 I don't want to jinx it....but the drought looks to end for cyclone Don't forget about ol' Hawkeye Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
blizzardof96 Posted January 31, 2015 Share Posted January 31, 2015 Northern edge not so sharp on the GFS. Gives Toronto 6-7"; will take what I can get this winter! Amounts still seem a bit high to me for the GTA, though. All depends on ratios. If were talking 15:1 which seems most likely then the 12z GFS is showing ~4-6" for the GTA. I am more than happy with that... especially since we get a taste of the true CCB band. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
STL Posted January 31, 2015 Share Posted January 31, 2015 Go big or go home. First and final call 13.5" in Bartlett, IL Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Powerball Posted January 31, 2015 Share Posted January 31, 2015 If you notice, the 12z GFS is almost ready to be *BOOM* with the trough almost going negative tilt over the Mississippi River... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
McDude Posted January 31, 2015 Share Posted January 31, 2015 Hey what model ended up being right with the East coast storm? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stebo Posted January 31, 2015 Share Posted January 31, 2015 Holy **** at the GFS Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RCNYILWX Posted January 31, 2015 Share Posted January 31, 2015 This pretty much goes for anyone getting 10"+ this round. Winds will be picking Sunday afternoon+evening, with gusts in the 35mph range for many. Starting to wonder if we'll see any blizzard warnings during the brunt of this event. *IF* the observational trends and rest of 12z guidance support the GFS, certainly is possible. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RCNYILWX Posted January 31, 2015 Share Posted January 31, 2015 Maybe the UKMET wasn't so far fetched after all? The 12z UKMET and ECMWF runs will be interesting. That's what I'm thinking after seeing this run of the GFS. If the other globals follow suit, we're really gonna have to ramp up public awareness of this event. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Gilbertfly Posted January 31, 2015 Share Posted January 31, 2015 *IF* the observational trends and rest of 12z guidance support the GFS, certainly is possible. just to post an image for any that are mobile this weekend and can't see.... via the 12Z GFS.... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Thundersnow12 Posted January 31, 2015 Share Posted January 31, 2015 If you notice, the 12z GFS is almost ready to be *BOOM* with the trough almost going negative tilt over the Mississippi River... It's a great run anyways but yeah it's so close to a little more amped. Nice to see it finally got back to it's run days ago Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chicago Storm Posted January 31, 2015 Author Share Posted January 31, 2015 Hey what model ended up being right with the East coast storm?In the end...The GFS. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mimillman Posted January 31, 2015 Share Posted January 31, 2015 I'm gonna stick with my 8-12 call for Chicago metro just to stay true to my forecast, but right now I would be inclined to up it to 10-14. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
McDude Posted January 31, 2015 Share Posted January 31, 2015 In the end...The GFS. ride it! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DAFF Posted January 31, 2015 Share Posted January 31, 2015 If you notice, the 12z GFS is almost ready to be *BOOM* with the trough almost going negative tilt over the Mississippi River... Wow!! to think this system could get even deeper.... Its allredy on the upper echelon on the snow charts. Impressive Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
huronicane Posted January 31, 2015 Share Posted January 31, 2015 Some stats from IWX: Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Thundersnow12 Posted January 31, 2015 Share Posted January 31, 2015 12z GFS total precip amounts Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stebo Posted January 31, 2015 Share Posted January 31, 2015 I am thinking the 12" drought here ends with this storm. originally I was thinking 9-12" locally from the city south. However, now I think this is in the 11-14" range for the entire metro. This would have to have some sort of prolific shift north or south for us not to realize a huge snowfall here. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
extremewx52 Posted January 31, 2015 Share Posted January 31, 2015 Sunday night has the potential for some thundersnow across northern Indiana on the GFS solution. Extreme fgen with some negative epv right above the best fgen. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
on_wx Posted January 31, 2015 Share Posted January 31, 2015 Environment Canada is not impressed at all with the 11am's 4" for Windsor (adjacent DTX) 2-4" for London 0.8" for KW 0.8-1.5" for Hamilton Flurries for Toronto I feel like we're talking about a completely different storm here Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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