TugHillMatt Posted January 31, 2015 Share Posted January 31, 2015 rather warm at 15z with Rain being reported in Northern MO, SW Iowa and SE Nebraska and surface temps still creeping up Yeah, it's close to freezing up here in Michigan. Wonder how far south the Cold Front will make it. Will make the difference on how far north this baby comes. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Gilbertfly Posted January 31, 2015 Share Posted January 31, 2015 not much change in the QPF shield with the RGEM thus far thru H30 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WestCoaster Posted January 31, 2015 Share Posted January 31, 2015 15F here in Toronto. Up from 2F seven hours ago. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ExplosiveLow Posted January 31, 2015 Share Posted January 31, 2015 It's all on our COD site weather.cod.edu then numerical models then 4km NAM then accumulated precip Awesome thank you Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Whitelakeroy Posted January 31, 2015 Share Posted January 31, 2015 Well it will be interesting to see the rest of the 12Z models are after I get back later this afternoon from an outing with the kids. Ukie don't fail me know oh yeah and SREFs either Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
michsnowfreak Posted January 31, 2015 Share Posted January 31, 2015 Yeah, it's close to freezing up here in Michigan. Wonder how far south the Cold Front will make it. Will make the difference on how far north this baby comes. wow. 21F here Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DaveNay Posted January 31, 2015 Share Posted January 31, 2015 It's all on our COD site weather.cod.edu then numerical models then 4km NAM then accumulated precip Do you know Leon from the tornado chasing crowd? I work with him. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
extremewx52 Posted January 31, 2015 Share Posted January 31, 2015 Alright, I'm finally on board and excited. After this awful winter, I have remained hesitant up to the last 18 hours, but I am jacked and ready to go. Primed for some of the highest amounts here! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Powerball Posted January 31, 2015 Share Posted January 31, 2015 NAM's not as bad as people were making it out to be. Still widespread 12-16" amounts for DEtroit. Certainly an improvement from the 00z run... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
huronicane Posted January 31, 2015 Share Posted January 31, 2015 Haven't seen a widespread dumping like this in a while. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chicago WX Posted January 31, 2015 Share Posted January 31, 2015 Old school clown map. 12z NAM Kuchera style. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
extremewx52 Posted January 31, 2015 Share Posted January 31, 2015 When a storm taps a deep tropical moisture feed such as this one, it is common for it to overperform. I am hesitant to say that will cause higher precip amounts than current qpf fields show, but that does lend me to ignore my typical bias to cut qpf by 25%. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Rainman Posted January 31, 2015 Share Posted January 31, 2015 NAM's not as bad as people were making it out to be. Still widespread 12-16" amounts for DEtroit. Certainly an improvement from the 00z run... The NAM was better for pretty much everyone, except the northern fringe, but the QPF gradient tightens like that almost all the time. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Rainman Posted January 31, 2015 Share Posted January 31, 2015 Haven't seen a widespread dumping like this in a while. Not since the bad Taco Bell night of '06. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Powerball Posted January 31, 2015 Share Posted January 31, 2015 The NAM was better for pretty much everyone, except the northern fringe, but the QPF gradient tightens like that almost all the time. Verbatim, just the 12z NAM happening would be the biggest snowstorm I've ever witnessed (let alone what the 06z NAM showed). Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
on_wx Posted January 31, 2015 Share Posted January 31, 2015 The Weather Network https://twitter.com/KMacTWN/status/561546978874896385?s=01 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chicago Storm Posted January 31, 2015 Author Share Posted January 31, 2015 12z RGEM came in north and wetter... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Thundersnow12 Posted January 31, 2015 Share Posted January 31, 2015 Do you know Leon from the tornado chasing crowd? I work with him. Haha yes. He's a good time and loves big snowstorms Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chicago WX Posted January 31, 2015 Share Posted January 31, 2015 12z RGEM ticked a bit warmer for central IN. Meteograms below for IND. A real nail biter. Taken at face value though, about 0.70-0.80" of precip falls as snow. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DAFF Posted January 31, 2015 Share Posted January 31, 2015 When a storm taps a deep tropical moisture feed such as this one, it is common for it to overperform. I am hesitant to say that will cause higher precip amounts than current qpf fields show, but that does lend me to ignore my typical bias to cut qpf by 25%. This makes me ...... I'm cautious with snow fall amounts and can relate to many busts in the past. Usually due to the dreaded dry slot, which is yet to rear its ugly head. As the hours dwindle down and the pattern seems to deepen the prospects of hitting white gold in our region explode with excitement. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TheWeatherPimp Posted January 31, 2015 Share Posted January 31, 2015 IND will be a mess with the south side getting way less than the North side but North of Indy should do fine Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
huronicane Posted January 31, 2015 Share Posted January 31, 2015 Not since the bad Taco Bell night of '06. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TugHillMatt Posted January 31, 2015 Share Posted January 31, 2015 wow. 21F here It is amazing what a SW wind off of Lake Michigan does to our temps, both in winter and summer. It gives us some great Lake enhanced snows, but then can compact them just as easily. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chicago Storm Posted January 31, 2015 Author Share Posted January 31, 2015 12z GFS going big. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Snowstorms Posted January 31, 2015 Share Posted January 31, 2015 12z GFS looking great for my area. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chicago Storm Posted January 31, 2015 Author Share Posted January 31, 2015 Biggest run of any model thus far probably. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Gilbertfly Posted January 31, 2015 Share Posted January 31, 2015 4k NAM shows some pretty good windows of stout surface winds getting close to that 30+ mph range over a wide area....and especially into ALEK ville obv Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
smoof Posted January 31, 2015 Share Posted January 31, 2015 12Z GFS Snow Map: Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chicago WX Posted January 31, 2015 Share Posted January 31, 2015 12z GFS brings rain into LAF. Really warm run. Will be a hell of a shellacking for those up north though. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chicago Storm Posted January 31, 2015 Author Share Posted January 31, 2015 Bumping up my original call for ORD from 9.0" to 12.0" Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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