SchaumburgStormer Posted January 31, 2015 Share Posted January 31, 2015 I'm telling you now, if you're expecting widespread 12-18", you're going to be disappointed. SREF is using untenable SLRs. They may be a little high, but nothing's like the clipper when they were shooting out 20+:1 and we got 11-12:1. I think they are slightly high but not "untenable" Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TheWeatherPimp Posted January 31, 2015 Share Posted January 31, 2015 A jump up on 12z NAM for LAF, MIE and OKK. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Whitelakeroy Posted January 31, 2015 Share Posted January 31, 2015 I'm still waiting for the last 9" of the 21" the SREF had for YYZ for the February 8, 2013 storm. Your bursting my bubble ... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
michsnowfreak Posted January 31, 2015 Share Posted January 31, 2015 Regarding Detroits biggest snowstorms and fluff factor...thats sort of up in the air. If this event actually played out as the NAM shows, it would be unique. Once you get into the 10-12" range (which there are many) you get quite a mix of powder and wet, heavy snows, but a lean towards powder. The top ones, however, are wet snows. #1 (24.5" Apr 6, 1886) & #2 (19.3" Dec 1, 1974) were wet, heavy snows with temps in the low 30s. Now, there was a storm of 17.5" on Feb 28, 1875 that had temps in the upper teens, however back then they didnt do proper liquid equivalents (they just assumed a 10-1 ratio). In fact, DTX doesnt even count snowfall til 1880 due to some missing data in the 1870s, so that storm isnt officially on the list. Looking at old records it seems they applied 10-1 ratio to snowfall until the early 1900s. Even the Dec 18-19, 1929 storm is listed at 10-1 ratio (14.0" snow, 1.40" liquid) even though temps would say it was powderier. Not til you get to Jan 22, 2005 (12.2" snow, 0.51" liquid) do you get a noticeable fluff factor (and in THAT case, the ASOS may have underdid it a bit, although it was a very fluffy snow). Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowstormcanuck Posted January 31, 2015 Share Posted January 31, 2015 average 16:1 ratios at DTW (16" snow on 1" liquid) is not going to happen. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DAFF Posted January 31, 2015 Share Posted January 31, 2015 Temps for DTX are at a high for midnight and fall all day long. Hourly weather graph shows max wind gusts of 29mph. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Rainman Posted January 31, 2015 Share Posted January 31, 2015 The SREF needs to be deleted. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Gilbertfly Posted January 31, 2015 Share Posted January 31, 2015 1.2+ through chi-metro thru H45 and a nice little chunk of that at the tail could be nice stacking LE Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Thundersnow12 Posted January 31, 2015 Share Posted January 31, 2015 12z 4km NAM is pretty juiced, more so than the 6z run for Chicago and points south Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowstormcanuck Posted January 31, 2015 Share Posted January 31, 2015 They may be a little high, but nothing's like the clipper when they were shooting out 20+:1 and we got 11-12:1. I think they are slightly high but not "untenable" untenable = unsustainable. The storm will not sustain average SLRs in the mid to high teens. My prediction. If I'm wrong, props to the SREFs. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SchaumburgStormer Posted January 31, 2015 Share Posted January 31, 2015 Izzi with another great lfd for LOT this morning, outlining the issues that may cause issues. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
michsnowfreak Posted January 31, 2015 Share Posted January 31, 2015 average 16:1 ratios at DTW (16" snow on 1" liquid) is not going to happen. probably not....the SREFs are always high...usually they are actually worse lol (snow to liquid) Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DAFF Posted January 31, 2015 Share Posted January 31, 2015 With the onset of the storm I'm thinking a 10:1.... Given the temperature trends on the back side 16:1 should be obtainable. Now how this all plays out .... Biggest system of the season, guaranteed. Blizzard conditions will be close but no cigar Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Baum Posted January 31, 2015 Share Posted January 31, 2015 Izzi with another great lfd for LOT this morning, outlining the issues that may cause issues. Yes. He's not over hyping the event and neither is LOT. 5-10 inch across the board is a reasonable call. Can always bump up when event shows its hand. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
smoof Posted January 31, 2015 Share Posted January 31, 2015 12Z NAM Snow Map: Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
michsnowfreak Posted January 31, 2015 Share Posted January 31, 2015 With the onset of the storm I'm thinking a 10:1.... Given the temperature trends on the back side 16:1 should be obtainable. Now how this all plays out .... Biggest system of the season, guaranteed. Blizzard conditions will be close but no cigar doubt we see any period of 10-1. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowstormcanuck Posted January 31, 2015 Share Posted January 31, 2015 probably not....the SREFs are always high...usually they are actually worse lol (snow to liquid) Yeah, I've been burned by them enough to know now not to believe their insanity. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SchaumburgStormer Posted January 31, 2015 Share Posted January 31, 2015 untenable = unsustainable. The storm will not sustain average SLRs in the mid to high teens. My prediction. If I'm wrong, props to the SREFs. Man I shouldn't have drank so much last night... Just realized in my hungover fog that untenable did not mean unreachable. I agree they may be high, but it wouldn't suprise me to see 13-15:1 for a good chunk of the storm as the cold air funnels in. Only concern is the WTOD. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Thundersnow12 Posted January 31, 2015 Share Posted January 31, 2015 12z 4km NAM Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Gilbertfly Posted January 31, 2015 Share Posted January 31, 2015 12z 4km NAM is pretty juiced, more so than the 6z run for Chicago and points south nice little convergence kink along the western shore of Lake Michigan extending up towards the UP already at 12Z on 01FEB also....not much, but could provide some added enhancement down into the metro .... and also moving forward in time obv as backing improves Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
geddyweather Posted January 31, 2015 Share Posted January 31, 2015 12Z NAM Snow Map: WOW. Check out the 20-22" bullseye over Toledo, with 14-18" extending down into NWOH. If this were to materialize, it would be quite the thumping for an area that hasn't seen more then 5" of snow from a storm this winter. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Thundersnow12 Posted January 31, 2015 Share Posted January 31, 2015 Cyclone can put to bed his rain worries..starts/stays all snow out there Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowstormcanuck Posted January 31, 2015 Share Posted January 31, 2015 Man I shouldn't have drank so much last night... Just realized in my hungover fog that untenable did not mean unreachable. I agree they may be high, but it wouldn't suprise me to see 13-15:1 for a good chunk of the storm as the cold air funnels in. Only concern is the WTOD. DTX likes that range. edit: and no worries. Untenable was a clumsy choice of wording on my part. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ExplosiveLow Posted January 31, 2015 Share Posted January 31, 2015 Thundersnow12 is there anyway you could post 12z 4km NAM Qpf at hour 60? Greatly appreciate it. That baby is juiced for you guys in N IL! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DAFF Posted January 31, 2015 Share Posted January 31, 2015 doubt we see any period of 10-1 2m temps on the onset will be 26°f, not sure about the upper atmosphere temps. I was aiming low. If we could average 13:1 with 1.05 precip = 13.5" Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
daddylonglegs Posted January 31, 2015 Share Posted January 31, 2015 I hope MKE gets crushed...showing 2 to 4 here... Saukville loves deep snow. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Thundersnow12 Posted January 31, 2015 Share Posted January 31, 2015 Thundersnow12 is there anyway you could post 12z 4km NAM Qpf at hour 60? Greatly appreciate it. That baby is juiced for you guys in N IL! It's all on our COD site weather.cod.edu then numerical models then 4km NAM then accumulated precip Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Gilbertfly Posted January 31, 2015 Share Posted January 31, 2015 FWIW, the 9Z SREF used 12:1 ratios to come up with the near 15 inch mean at JOT.....seems plausible (if not a little low on the ratios)...low ratio onset and probably some pretty high ratios as any Lake Effect works through towards the tail... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
janetjanet998 Posted January 31, 2015 Share Posted January 31, 2015 rather warm at 15z with Rain being reported in Northern MO, SW Iowa and SE Nebraska and surface temps still creeping up Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Gilbertfly Posted January 31, 2015 Share Posted January 31, 2015 vorts and pwats... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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